The Distillery #13: The $4.3bn Messaging Fraud Threat & UK Plans Stablecoin Caps

September 2025

Telecoms & Connectivity

Juniper Research

Analyst House

In this edition:

• The $4.3 billion threat facing mobile messaging — and three trends to watch
  
• The Bank of England eyes caps on stablecoin holdings, with limits for both consumers and businesses
  
• A2P SMS revenue is at risk, but a new whitepaper outlines how operators can take back control
  
• Our latest insights on eCommerce payments, smart grid, and Apple’s eSIM push

TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

3 Mobile Messaging Fraud Trends That'll Define 2026

$4.3 billion. That’s how much mobile subscribers are forecast to lose to fraudulent RCS scams over the next five years — a clear sign that as messaging evolves, so do the methods of those looking to exploit it.

To mark the launch of our new mobile messaging fraud prevention research, we’re giving subscribers an exclusive look at three fraud trends set to hit hardest in 2026 — and what must be done now to stay ahead.

🟣 Account Takeover fraud is rising as smishing, malware, and credential stuffing converge. One-time password interception remains a favourite trick, but AI-driven campaigns now test login combinations at speed. Shifting customers onto MFA methods beyond SMS, paired with operator-level anomaly detection, is becoming the frontline defence.

🟣 Fraud-as-a-Service is industrialising scams. Kits and bots available on the dark web make it easy for even inexperienced actors to launch AIT, smishing, or grey route attacks. Combating it isn’t about stopping individuals but dismantling the marketplace; meaning regulators, MNOs, and enterprises will need to coordinate intelligence and takedowns internationally.

🟣 WhatsApp, Telegram, and Messenger scams are exploiting encryption to mask malicious activity and use conversational bots to keep victims hooked. Business messaging on OTT platforms will exceed 175 billion messages in 2025, with volumes climbing sharply over the next two years; giving fraudsters unprecedented scale. The real battle will move to the app layer, where AI can track behaviour, verify accounts at scale, and expose patterns invisible to the network.

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FINTECH & PAYMENTS

The Bank of England Eyes Caps on Stablecoin Holdings

The Bank of England is proposing caps on stablecoin wallets — £10,000–£20,000 for individuals and around £10 million for businesses.

The move comes after earlier consultations in 2023 on systemic payment risks, which had regulators concerned that if stablecoins gain traction as everyday payment tools, they could drain deposits from banks and destabilise credit supply.

Distilled…

🟣 Stablecoins such as USDC or a future GBP-backed coin could become widely used for daily payments. However, if a sudden loss occurred in the coin's value, it could cause payment system outages or runs which spill over into traditional finance. These caps would provide “speedbumps" for the market and give regulators time to build safeguards while allowing innovation.

🟣 Crypto groups see the limits as a competitive handicap. With the EU and US moving ahead without caps, industry voices argue the UK risks losing its edge as a crypto hub — pushing users offshore or into self-custody.

🟣 Balancing growth with stability will be the challenge. Stablecoins could make payments faster and more efficient, but unchecked adoption risks weakening traditional banks’ ability to lend. How the UK handles this trade-off will shape its standing in global finance.

GET THE WHITEPAPER

TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

A2P SMS is at a Crossroads - Here's How to Take Back Control

The $55 billion A2P SMS market is under pressure like never before.

Fraud, flash calling, grey routes, and rising costs are eroding trust. Without urgent operator action, revenue across Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific, and Latin America could fall by 23% by 2029.

ReveNet, in collaboration with Juniper Research, has released a landmark whitepaper outlining how operators can regain control of the A2P SMS value chain. Inside, you’ll discover:

• The biggest threats putting A2P SMS at risk

• Why transparency and collaboration are non-negotiable

• Practical steps that operators can take NOW to protect revenue

Download your copy today and see how ReveNet’s transparency-first approach, backed by Juniper Research’s market insight, delivers a blueprint for sustainable A2P growth.

DOWNLOAD NOW

ICYMI

The Last Drop

We can’t fit all our work from the last fortnight in one issue, so here’s a hand-picked selection of blogs, infographics, and insights that deserve your attention.

⚡ Smart grids will carry over 40% of the world’s electricity by 2030 — a sharp climb from under 25% in 2024; fuelled by the rise of virtual power plants.

💳 eCommerce payments will hit $13 trillion by 2030, up from $8.3 trillion in 2025 — with Stripe, Visa Acceptance Solutions, and PayPal leading the way.

📱 Apple’s launch of the iPhone Air marks a major step toward an eSIM-only future. But is the market truly ready to make the leap?

💵 Wyoming has rolled out the Frontier Stable Token — the first state-issued stablecoin. But is it a genuine game-changer or just a symbolic step?

🏆 And finally, there's just 37 days left to enter the Telco Innovation Awards 2026! That might sound like a long time away, but watch out: the time will fly by once Q4 arrives.

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