The Distillery: Vodafone Bets on LEO Satellites, Revolut's UK Licence & Crypto Banking Faces Legal Fight

March 2026

Fintech & Payments

Juniper Research

Analyst House

Another MWC, another wave of big announcements.

To help make sense of it all, we’ve just published a free whitepaper that breaks down the biggest announcements from this year’s show, and explores how they'll shape operator strategy over the next few years.

Get your copy now!

🚨 BREAKING: Revolut just secured its banking licence for the UK, after a long-fought battle with regulators. Nick Maynard, our VP of Fintech Market Research, just published his perspective​ on this, and what it means for the wider UK banking market, on LinkedIn. 🚨

Also in this edition:

• Vodafone partners with Amazon’s LEO satellite network; signalling the growing role of satellite backhaul in mobile connectivity.
• Major US banks are considering legal action against regulators, as tensions rise between traditional finance and digital asset firms.
  
• The four challenges shaping the future of mobile messaging, courtesy of our latest research.
• Our latest insights on cross-border payments, card networks, and MVNOs.

TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

Vodafone Turns to Amazon Leo to Expand Mobile Coverage

Vodafone and Amazon have signed an agreement to improve connectivity across Europe and Africa using the satellite broadband network Amazon Leo.

Under the agreement, Vodafone will use Amazon’s Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites to connect remote 4G and 5G mobile sites to its core network. The satellite links are expected to deliver download speeds of up to 1 Gbps and upload speeds of up to 400 Mbps. Initial deployments, which are expected later this year, will focus on rural and dispersed sites across Europe, before expanding across Africa through Vodacom.

Distilled...

🟣 Satellite backhaul is reshaping the economics of rural connectivity. Historically, the cost of deploying fibre or microwave backhaul has limited the viability of mobile base stations in remote areas. LEO satellite connectivity reduces these barriers by enabling operators to extend coverage without extensive terrestrial infrastructure. Our latest research expects the number of base stations relying on satellite backhaul to increase significantly over the next few years; making partnerships between satellite providers and mobile operators increasingly important.

🟣 This also strengthens the case for fixed wireless access (FWA). Satellite backhaul allows operators to deploy FWA in sparsely populated regions where fibre backhaul would struggle to deliver a viable return on investment. However, the economics still favour fibre in higher-density markets where greater capacity is required.

🟣 Satellite will complement rather than replace terrestrial backhaul. Fibre and microwave links will continue to dominate in urban and high-traffic areas due to their significantly higher capacity and more consistent performance. Satellite connectivity should therefore be viewed as a strategic extension of operator networks rather than a substitute for existing infrastructure.

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FINTECH & PAYMENTS

US Banks Mull Regulator Lawsuit Over Crypto Banking Rule Changes

Several of the largest US banks are considering legal action against federal regulators over new rules that could make it easier for cryptocurrency companies to operate within the US banking system.

The potential challenge is being weighed by the Bank Policy Institute; a lobbying group representing major lenders including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. The dispute centres on the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which has granted national trust bank charters to several crypto and fintech firms, including Circle, Ripple, and World Liberty Financial.

Distilled...

🟣 Banks are warning of an uneven regulatory playing field. The OCC’s trust charter model allows crypto companies to conduct bank-like activities without meeting the same regulatory requirements as traditional banks. Critics argue this could increase systemic risk, particularly given the volatility and governance challenges previously seen in the crypto sector.

🟣 That said, bringing crypto firms under federal charters could improve oversight while accelerating innovation in digital assets, payments, and blockchain infrastructure. Supporters argue this approach gives regulators greater visibility over crypto activities while allowing firms to operate under a single federal framework, as opposed to navigating a fragmented state-by-state licensing regime.

🟣 The dispute ultimately centres on what qualifies as a bank. National trust charters could allow tech and crypto companies to move money across all 50 states without obtaining individual state licences. This could accelerate the rise of 'skinny banks' focused on payments and digital assets rather than traditional lending or deposit services.

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TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

4 Challenges Facing Mobile Messaging in 2026

Mobile messaging traffic is growing rapidly as smartphones and richer communication formats reshape how consumers communicate with brands.

Our new mobile messaging research explores the scale of this growth. Yet the messaging ecosystem is also facing a number of emerging challenges — from rising fraud to shifting enterprise messaging strategies. Here are four of the most important:

🟣 Messaging fraud is industrialising. The rise of Fraud-as-a-Service ecosystems means sophisticated fraud tools — including phishing kits, one-time passcode (OTP) interception tools, and traffic exploitation bots — are now packaged and sold commercially to other criminals. This dramatically lowers the barrier to entry for cybercrime and enables attacks to scale across multiple markets simultaneously.

🟣 SMS is caught in a destructive pricing cycle. Operators are raising SMS prices to offset declining traffic and rising investments in fraud mitigation. However, these higher prices are pushing enterprises towards alternative messaging channels such as over-the-top (OTT) platforms. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle: declining demand leads to higher prices, which further accelerates the migration away from SMS.

🟣 Messaging fragmentation is complicating enterprise strategy. Between WhatsApp, WeChat, and SMS, messaging preferences now differ wildly across regions and demographics. As a result, enterprises can no longer rely on a single channel to reach customers; forcing them to adopt increasingly complex omnichannel strategies. This fragmentation is increasing the importance of messaging platforms and communication APIs that allow enterprises to coordinate messaging across multiple channels.

🟣 Authentication is moving beyond SMS. One of the largest drivers of Application-to-Person (A2P) SMS traffic has historically been OTPs. However, enterprises are increasingly adopting alternative authentication methods such as passkeys, biometric authentication, and authenticator apps. These methods offer stronger security and improved user experience, which is accelerating their adoption across major digital platforms. As these technologies gain traction, they will continue to reduce reliance on SMS-based authentication.

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ICYMI

The Last Drop

We can’t fit all our work from the last fortnight in one issue, so here’s a hand-picked selection of blogs, infographics, and insights that deserve your attention.

💰 PayPal is under growing pressure to redefine its future. With leadership changes and rising competition, the fintech pioneer faces a stark choice: reinvention or acquisition?

📶 MVNO subscriber revenue is set to exceed $50 billion globally by 2030, as operators increasingly turn to wholesale partnerships to expand connectivity services.

💳 Payment sovereignty is rising up the UK agenda, as banks and regulators explore whether a domestic alternative to Visa and Mastercard could reshape the country’s payments infrastructure.

🌐 Cross-border payments remain one of the most competitive battlegrounds in fintech. Our latest Competitor Leaderboard reveals the three companies leading the global market for payment infrastructure.

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