What Do Trump's Tariffs Mean for Fintech & Payments?

April 2025

Fintech & Payments

Michael Greenwood

Principal Analyst

(UPDATE: On April 9th, Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher US tariffs for affected countries, introducing instead a universal “reciprocal tariff” of 10%. However, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised sharply to 145%.)

The latest tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration’s have sent shockwaves through the global economy, rattling markets worldwide. In just a matter of days, the Nasdaq plunged 6%, the FTSE 100 slipped 1.5%, and Germany’s DAX dropped 3%.

While the immediate hit is focused on imported goods and the industries that support them, the ripple effects are likely to reach much further: putting even untargeted sectors like fintech and payments in the firing line.

What Are the Tariffs?

The tariffs are a flat tax applied to goods entering the US, with the cost falling on the companies doing the importing. The White House has announced a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with steeper rates targeting specific countries. Notably, Canada and Mexico were excluded from this latest round, though their goods are already subject to separate tariffs. According to the White House, these measures are being positioned as reciprocal, aiming to level the playing field.

Extent of Tariffs Imposed by the US (%)

Source: White House

Impact on Cross-border Payments

The B2B cross-border payments market is likely to feel the impact of the tariffs first and most acutely. These transactions are already more complex and costly than domestic payments, and the new tariffs will only add friction.

For providers, this could mean a drop in payment volumes to and from the US, with trade routes shifting as businesses look for more cost-effective options. Heavily impacted countries like Vietnam may see a sharp decline in transaction flow, while others with similar advantages but fewer trade barriers could benefit. Still, even with new corridors gaining traction, the overall volume of transfers is expected to fall. This downturn could squeeze smaller, less resilient players in the space and dampen momentum for innovation.

With fewer incentives to connect the US to global payment systems, efforts to streamline cross-border processes may start to lose steam.

What Will Happen to the Dollar?

Since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, the US dollar has held its place as the global reserve currency, becoming the de facto medium for international trade. Even when two countries trade without using the dollar domestically, transactions are often routed through it. But with US tariffs likely to dampen international trade, fewer businesses will see the need to hold or transact in dollars.

This shift comes as momentum builds behind BRICS Pay, especially following the October 2024 BRICS summit in Russia. Countries like Russia, Iran and China have been vocal about reducing their dependence on the dollar to sidestep Western sanctions and dilute the US’s financial influence. By weakening economic ties between the US and its trading partners, these tariffs may accelerate the adoption of alternative systems, particularly if China actively promotes participation.

This also ties into a broader global movement towards developing homegrown payment infrastructure. From Europe’s push for instant payment schemes to East Asia’s rise in QR code based solutions, domestic alternatives are increasingly competing with US-led networks such as Visa and Mastercard. As seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US can pressure these networks to suspend services, exposing the risks of overreliance. In response, many nations are seeking sovereign control over payment rails, and platforms like BRICS Pay or stablecoins offer potential routes around dollar-dominated systems.

While these tariffs didn’t spark the trend, they have certainly added fuel to the fire. Combined with rising geopolitical tensions, they are acting as a catalyst; driving countries to seek more control, more resilience, and fewer ties to US-led financial systems.

What Happens Next?

The tariffs came into force on Saturday 5th April, giving businesses and payment providers very little time to prepare. A point of uncertainty in this process is that critics argue the White House does not have the authority to implement these tariffs, as such measures typically fall within Congress’s remit. This opens the door for a legal challenge, as seen with other controversial executive orders, meaning the future of these tariffs is far from guaranteed.

If the tariffs are here to stay, it’s unlikely that they will push the US out of the trading landscape for many affected countries; the US remains too large a market to ignore. However, solutions that simplify the payment of tariffs, alongside digital methods for tracking goods, verifying their origin, and determining applicable tariffs, are likely to see increasing demand. This presents an opportunity for vendors who can crack these challenges.

Ultimately, this move will only complicate cross-border payments further and is likely to speed up existing trends that diminish the US dollar’s dominance in global trade.

A Senior Research Analyst at Juniper Research, Michael primarily conducts research on digital identity and payments markets. His recent reports include Chargeback Management, Digital Wallets, and Digital Identity.