Hype vs Reality: How Close Are We to Commercial Quantum Computing?

October 2025

Emerging Technology

Louis Atkin

Research Analyst

The quantum technology market has been making waves recently, fuelled by a surge in investment and public attention. Companies such as D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and IONQ have seen their share prices climb sharply, reflecting growing investor enthusiasm.

This renewed interest isn’t without reason. UK-based Quantum Motion recently announced the first quantum computer made with silicon chips — a significant step forward, as scalability remains one of the biggest hurdles for quantum technologies to overcome before they become commercially viable.

Source: Quantum Motion

Earlier this year, in February, it was also announced that scientists at Oxford University had successfully linked two quantum processors using light photons. This breakthrough means multiple smaller systems can now work together in a modular fashion. Traditionally, adding more qubits to a system increased the chance of errors, but by connecting smaller modules instead, researchers hope to scale up while keeping error rates low.

The EU has also recognised quantum’s potential, launching the Quantum Europe Strategy in 2025. This initiative focuses on supporting R&D, building infrastructure, investing in quantum ventures, and boosting quantum education — all with the goal of making Europe a quantum powerhouse by 2030.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s announcement of a $10 billion investment across 27 industries — including quantum computing — has sent a clear signal to the market: quantum is gradually shifting from experimental science to a technology with real strategic potential.

Challenges

Today’s enthusiasm for quantum feels a lot like the early days of AI: plenty of investment, plenty of excitement, and only a handful of real-world use cases. Quantum is a complex field that even seasoned investors can struggle to fully understand. This can lead to inflated expectations and the risk of a bubble, where hype outpaces actual technological progress.

Despite the huge potential of quantum computing, its practical use cases remain limited. Quantum systems are expensive, require highly skilled specialists, and are difficult to scale. For many companies, commercialisation has proved challenging, with investments far outweighing revenue.

Much of the current buzz comes down to the idea of ‘Q-Day’ — the point when quantum computers will be able to break current encryption standards. The thought of quantum machines rendering today’s data security obsolete is understandably alarming. However, predictions for when Q-Day might arrive vary widely — anywhere from a few years to several decades.

What Success Looks Like

Despite the scepticism, quantum is still making meaningful progress. The comparison to AI isn’t a bad one — while AI took time to find its footing, it eventually revealed several strong use cases.

Major players like Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, and Google now offer Quantum-as-a-Service (QaaS), making the technology more accessible. This involvement from trusted tech giants is a promising sign.

Source: Microsoft

Beyond encryption, quantum systems could be game-changing for optimisation problems — areas where quantum’s ability to explore multiple states at once really shines. This has big implications for sectors like finance, healthcare, and logistics, where optimising complex systems can deliver major efficiencies.

Hybrid quantum-classical systems may also pave the way forward. Rather than replacing traditional computing outright, these hybrid models blend both approaches — offering a more realistic, incremental path to quantum commercialisation.

Future Outlook

Quantum technology is undeniably exciting, but a lot of the current investment still seems to be driven more by hype than by practical application. Part of the problem is accessibility — quantum physics is notoriously difficult to grasp, and the concepts don’t easily connect to most people’s existing knowledge.

Quantum’s relevance has risen and fallen over the years, and while recent breakthroughs are encouraging, commercialisation remains a long way off. No amount of investment can shortcut the need for deep expertise — and building that talent base takes time. Universities worldwide are working hard to expand quantum education, but the field demands a rare combination of physics, software, and engineering skills.

Quantum computing will keep advancing, and as more specialists enter the field, we’ll likely see progress toward major milestones such as Q-Day. However, that progress is unlikely to match the pace of current investment expectations.

In the meantime, it’s worth preparing. Digital security providers should start exploring post-quantum cryptography (PQC) methods. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) selected three PQC algorithms for standardisation in 2024 — deploying these would be a smart move to protect against future quantum-enabled threats.

Louis is a Research Analyst at Juniper Research, specialising in fintech trends, market forecasting and competitive analysis. He provides in-depth analysis and strategic insight across digital identity, quantum technologies, and fintech innovation. This research helps clients stay ahead of emerging technologies and adapt to shifting regulatory landscapes.