Q-Day: The Race to Secure Satellite Connectivity

June 2024

Emerging Technology

Michelle Joynson

Research Analyst

Driven by the prospect of being connected no matter where on Earth you are, the satellite IoT market has grown. In particular, the introduction of LEO (Low-Earth Orbit) satellites has pushed this growth, with faster development and lower costs to both develop and launch compared to traditional satellites. LEO satellites are expected to grow by 166% globally by 2030, as seen in the figure below:

Number of LEO Satellites in Service, 2024 vs 2030

Source: Juniper Research

However, the growing threat of cyberattacks continues to remain a large issue within this market. As satellites have numerous access points through ground stations, the satellites themselves and IoT devices, monitoring and defending satellite communications against cyberattacks can be difficult, with some unauthorised entries into the network hard to trace, and some even going undetected.

In order to protect data against cyberthreats, satellite network operators have to ensure that they use advanced encryption algorithms. One of the ways in which to create an almost hack-proof defence is through the use of quantum cryptography, particularly methods such as QKD (Quantum Key Distribution). QKD uses the random state of quantum particles, such as photons, to share keys between two parties. This method is considered hack-proof because of its ability to send alerts if a key is tampered with by a third party. Any third-party interference with the key will result in the photons changing their state, which will send an alert to the sender that a new key needs to be distributed.

However, the development of quantum computing has caused deep unrest in the cybersecurity industry because of their ability to solve complex algorithms in a much shorter time frame than classical computers. In the hands of bad actors, this will mean that any advanced encryption algorithms used to protect data, including QKD, could be broken in a matter of days, leaving companies and the public incredibly vulnerable.

As we enter a post-quantum phase, operators are looking for the best possible defence to keep data safe from attacks not only from classical computers, but from quantum computers as well. This has resulted in a race to develop quantum-safe cryptography or post-quantum cryptography before what has been dubbed as Q-day – the day that quantum computers will be able to break public encryption systems. With the development of quantum computing via key players such as Google and IBM, this may be coming sooner than we expect. 

So, how do we prepare for Q-day?

The use of AI and machine learning will prove vital in the development and optimisation of post-quantum encryption algorithms. These algorithms use advanced mathematical problems to ensure that they are quantum resilient. However, these algorithms may also become vulnerable to quantum attacks in the future. Machine learning and AI can help detect the best algorithm for a situation and swap algorithms to help protect against attacks. They can also aid in threat and anomaly detection, one of the first lines of defence in cybersecurity. Machine learning algorithms can be trained to analyse large amounts of data in real-time, triggering an alert if an anomaly or threat is detected.

As the satellite IoT services market continues to grow, operators have a responsibility to protecting their uses against these attacks. Investing in advanced cybersecurity practices such as post-quantum cryptography will become a necessity. Partnering with cybersecurity firms will also prove beneficial, as Starlink, a satellite Internet constellation, and Qusecure, a provider of quantum security solutions, have recently announced the development of the first quantum-resilient satellite; using post-quantum cryptography. As cyberattacks will forever evolve, cybersecurity will have to evolve with them. In order to keep data as safe as possible and mitigate attacks, operators must always develop, monitor and test their solutions, as well as remaining vigilant to the current landscape of cybersecurity. 

As a Research Analyst within Juniper Research's IoT & Emerging Technology team, Michelle provides insight and analysis on the latest developments in nascent, fast-growing technology markets. Her latest reports include Smart Buildings and Satellite IoT.