The Distillery #9: Airtel Goes After SMS Scammers & the EU Calls Out Crypto

July 2025

Telecoms & Connectivity

Juniper Research

Analyst House

In this edition:

• Inside Airtel’s new AI-powered tool for soft-blocking SMS fraud
• Subscription economy trends that could have people hovering over the 'cancel' button
• A new EU agency is targeting anonymous crypto wallets and coins
• Our latest insights on digital ticketing, mPOS, network APIs, and AML

TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

Airtel Rwanda Launches AI Tool to Tackle SMS Spam

Last week, Airtel Rwanda unveiled a new AI-powered tool designed to flag potentially fraudulent SMS messages by detecting high-risk patterns; including suspicious language, formatting, and sender behaviour.

The service had already been covertly live on SMS traffic for two weeks prior to its 'launch,' and Airtel plans to expand coverage to voice calls and social media platforms later this year. 

Distilled...

🟣 Instead of blocking messages, the service alerts users when a message appears suspicious. Blocking can undercut SMS revenue and risks misclassifying legitimate traffic; potentially straining relationships with businesses and end users. A soft warning system keeps the revenue flowing while still protecting mobile subscribers.

🟣 Airtel launched similar systems in Nigeria and Kenya earlier this year. By deploying consistent tools across regions, it could be laying the groundwork for a continent-wide security framework built on shared data, scalable infrastructure, and coordinated policy engagement.

🟣 There's a bigger problem brewing, however. AI-powered voice cloning fraud grew by 700% in Africa last year, according to Smile ID. That’s a major blindspot in Airtel’s growing anti-fraud ecosystem, which will require state-of-the-art voice authentication or behavioural analysis to plug. Without this, it risks being most vulnerable where the threat is accelerating fastest.

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FINTECH & PAYMENTS

Subscription Economy Trends to Watch in 2025

$1.2 trillion. That’s the market value we're expecting the global subscription economy to hit by 2030. However, getting there won’t be easy in a landscape shaped by fatigue, fragmentation, and fierce competition.

To mark the release of our latest subscription economy research, we’re spotlighting three trends that will define the next five years - and how providers can keep users coming back after the trial period has ended.

🟣 Mature markets are hitting a ceiling. In North America, West Europe, and Far East & China, growth is slowing as saturation sets in; putting pressure on providers to double down on retention and creative pricing. Meanwhile, India, Africa, and Latin America are entering high-growth phases; driven by digital access and younger populations.

🟣 AI is powering the next phase of the subscription economy, but it’s not foolproof. When done well, it personalises recommendations, predicts churn, and optimises billing. But poorly trained or unmonitored models risk irrelevant nudges or misclassifying behaviour. Overreliance on chatbots can also alienate older or high-value users who expect human support.

🟣 Gen Z spends the most on subscriptions, with averages exceeding $400/month, but they also churn faster than any other generation. They’re drawn in by convenience and aesthetic value, but will unsubscribe as soon as a service feels overpriced or inflexible. Providers targeting Gen Z must rethink the entire lifecycle. That means frictionless sign-ups, easy pausing, and support for new payment types.

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FINTECH & PAYMENTS

New EU Agency Declares Crypto as Europe’s Top AML Risk 

The EU’s new Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA) began operations on 1 July 2025 - and immediately named cryptocurrency assets as Europe’s top money laundering risk.

As part of its sweeping overhaul of the region’s crypto landscape, it announced that from July 2027, virtual asset service providers (VASPs) will be required to grant government authorities full access to crypto account data. Additionally, anonymous wallets and privacy coins will be banned outright - a move that directly challenges the fundamental principles of crypto’s decentralised and anonymous nature.

Distilled...

🟣 Crypto compliance is going bank-grade. VASPs operating in the EU will need to transform into highly regulated, MiCA-compliant entities, complete with real-time reporting, integrated customer due diligence, and automated AML monitoring. Manual and siloed systems won’t survive this shift.

🟣 This regulatory crackdown may reshape the competitive landscape. Higher compliance costs could force smaller players to exit or relocate, while larger firms consolidate. Strategic friction between EU and US regulation may also widen; complicating how multijurisdictional operators do business.

🟣 Regtech and infrastructure players stand to gain. Stricter rules open the door for API-based AML tools, compliance automation, and cross-border interoperability platforms. Startups that help VASPs navigate the new rulebook will find strong demand, especially as regulators tighten expectations.

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ICYMI

Signal Boost

Every issue, we highlight the research, blogs, infographics, and insights we're most excited about.

🏆 We announced the winners of our annual Smart Cities & IoT Innovation awards; a number that includes Thales, ParkMobile, and Siemens.

📱 mPOS transactions will nearly double to $4.9 trillion by 2030; powered by retail’s move from fixed terminals and rising card use in emerging markets.

🌐 Despite the hype around network APIs since their debut, the market is still finding its feet. Here's how operators can turn things around.

💵 Given the recent fines levied at Monzo and Barclays, we ask: Why are legacy and challenger banks seemingly struggling with AML?

🎫 Digital tickets are becoming the norm worldwide. But which regions are leading the charge, and what factors are driving their growth?

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