The Distillery #3: Apple & Meta Fines, CPaaS Trends, and a New Digital ID Monopoly?

May 2025

Fintech & Payments

Juniper Research

Analyst House

It's your time to shine.

Before we jump into the news, our Smart Cities & IoT Innovation awards close tomorrow - so if you’ve been performing game-changing work in these areas, now's your moment.

It’s not just about the trophy, either. Past winners have used their wins to boost media visibility, strengthen client credibility, and sharpen their product and marketing strategies. Here's what G+D have to say on the matter.

See what awards are on offer and submit your (free) entry here - and if Friday is a tight deadline, let us know and we'll see what we can do.

In this edition:

• Apple and Meta fines — is a digital payments shake-up coming?
• CPaaS trends to watch in 2025
• Telenor IoT backs SGP.32 — why it matters
• UK's digital ID market — why monopoly fears are growing
• ICYMI — insights on Open Banking, CCaaS, and consumer payments

FINTECH & PAYMENTS

Apple and Meta Fined €700 Million Under Digital Markets Act

The European Commission has fined Apple and Meta €500 million and €200 million respectively under the new Digital Markets Act — targeting restrictions on competition and user choice.

Apple’s fine relates to limiting developers’ ability to promote alternative payment methods outside its App Store, while Meta’s penalty concerns its ‘pay or consent’ model, which requires users to either agree to data tracking or pay for an ad-free experience.

Distilled...

🟣 These rulings signal a shake-up for digital transactions. By pushing for third-party payment options, regulators are chipping away at the dominance of closed app ecosystems; opening the door for more online and SDK-based payment systems.

🟣 Meta’s fine could curb the rise of data-driven subscription models. As regulators crack down on monetising personal data, platforms might pivot even harder towards paid subscriptions to recover revenue — impacting the broader subscription economy, which we forecast to near $1 trillion by 2028.

🟣 With more payment options available, consumers and developers could see lower fees, while market competition could intensify; particularly in mobile gaming, where new challengers could level up and take on the dominant players.

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TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

Insider: CPaaS Trends to Watch in 2025

Rich media business messaging? Conversational agents? CXaaS???

There's a lot happening in Communications Platform-as-a-Service (CPaaS) right now, so to celebrate the release of our latest research on the topic, here's an exclusive look at three trends - and opportunities - you need to know.

🟣 CPaaS will be worth $34 billion next year, and as usual, marketing is taking all the credit. With the rise of rich media messaging and chatbots, enterprises aren’t just looking for authentication anymore — they want platforms that can help them connect, personalise, and sell. Our take? CPaaS players need to start treating authentication and marketing traffic differently if they want to keep up.

🟣 A2P SMS traffic will drop nearly 20% by 2029, so CPaaS vendors need to start adapting their authentication services to stay ahead. But good news: network APIs like Number Verification and SIM Swap are gaining traction; providing enterprises with the security and reliability they need.

🟣 Value-added services are more important than ever. Many CPaaS providers are shifting to become Customer Experience Platforms; evolving beyond basic messaging to deliver richer, conversational interactions. This shift will create exciting monetisation opportunities, and so providers must ensure they offer the tools that'll help enterprises excel across the entire customer journey.

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TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

Telenor IoT Targets SGP.32 Launch for 2025

Telenor IoT is preparing to roll out a new solution based on the SGP.32 eSIM standard, with launch planned for autumn 2025.

Says Mats Lundquist, CEO of Telenor Connexion and Head of Telenor IoT: "Telenor IoT has always been quick to adopt new standards and was among the first operators to launch SGP.02, the first eSIM standard for IoT. By launching SGP.32, we’re enabling the move towards a world of seamless, secure and standardised IoT connectivity, essential for long-term success in the IoT space."

Distilled...

🟣 eSIMs are poised to play a major role in the future of cellular IoT, with our latest figures predicting 6.4 billion devices using eSIM connectivity by 2028. Telenor IoT’s early adoption of SGP.32 positions it to capture a larger share of this expanding market.

🟣 SGP.32 is crucial because it simplifies the IoT eSIM architecture; enabling bulk provisioning and enhanced profile management. It also supports lightweight protocols for low-power devices like NB-IoT and reduces vendor lock-in, giving businesses greater flexibility in their IoT deployments.

🟣 Despite the benefits of eSIM, multi-International Mobile Subscriber Identities (IMSI) will still be in demand due to the impact of remote SIM provisioning on device batteries, which can drain up to 15% of some devices’ power. This is especially important for highly mobile connections, such as those used in international asset tracking and transportation.

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ICYMI

Signal Boost

Every issue, we highlight the research, blogs, infographics, and assorted insights we're especially proud of.

💰 Open Banking is booming, with users set to hit 645 million by 2029 — as banks turn transaction and identity data into a new revenue goldmine.

☎️ AWS, Genesys, and NICE are answering the call when it comes to smarter, faster, AI-powered contact centres.

💳 Our latest Tech Horizon shows that Click to Pay and bank-backed wallets are gaining ground, while BNPL is losing momentum as competition and regulation bite.

🥇 And finally, is the UK’s digital identity market heading for a monopoly? That’s what some industry players are worried about — and the numbers seem to back them up.

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