Direct-to-Cell: How Can Mobile Network Operators Maximise Their Return on Investment?

May 2026

Telecoms & Connectivity

Alex Webb

Senior Research Analyst

The market for direct-to-cell (D2C) services is rapidly shifting from experimentation to commercial reality, with Juniper Research projecting more than 130 million monthly active users by 2031. By enabling standard, unmodified smartphones to connect directly to satellite networks, D2C has the potential to extend mobile coverage beyond the reach of terrestrial infrastructure; reshaping how operators approach connectivity, resilience, and global coverage.

Currently, consumers have two choices for accessing D2C services on their smartphones. These are:

• Bolt-on Access: Mobile network operators are making D2C services available to mobile subscribers as an add on to their existing mobile subscription.
• Bundling: Mobile network operators are bundling D2C services with high-value mobile subscriptions to encourage loyalty and upsell their existing mobile subscribers.

Juniper Research anticipates that adoption of bolt-on fees by mobile subscribers will be niche and limited at present price points. With the monthly cost of a D2C bolt-on often exceeding 20% of value of the average mobile tariff, adoption of is expected to be low at current price points.

As seen with silent roamers, a large number of consumers will forgo mobile connectivity if they believe prices are too high. We anticipate this to be especially true for mobile subscribers whose smartphones already have emergency SOS features available for free - with the existence of free emergency features undermining the value of paid D2C services. If free emergency access is already provided then a D2C service will be perceived solely as a luxury service; diminishing the number of mobile subscribers willing to pay for it.

The revenue uplift provided by D2C will be hard to measure; however, Juniper Research believes that to effectively monetise the service, mobile network operators must also offer a number of additional advantages. Consumers are unlikely to upgrade their mobile subscription solely to gain access to D2C services; however, the addition of a D2C service alongside others, such as loyalty rewards programmes, roaming access and secondary numbers, will create effective revenue uplift. Many mobile network operators already offer these kind of services for high-end plans; meaning that adding D2C for revenue uplift should be relatively simple for most.

For Many Consumers, Monthly Payments Are the Wrong Business Model

Monthly payments for D2C services undoubtedly work for consumers living in rural and remote areas, as well as those regularly visiting these locations. However, Juniper Research believes that consumer demand for rural and remote connectivity varies considerably month to month, with it generally coinciding with holidays or visits to national parks. T-Mobile CEO Srini Gopalan recently highlighted this point, stating that:
“Most of the (T-Satellite) usage we're seeing is in national parks … we're seeing a lot less usage than we were originally thinking.”

Juniper Research believes that this trend in usage highlights the lack of necessity of D2C on a regular basis for the majority of Americans, with most unlikely to either be taking a monthly holiday or trip to a national park. It is also important to note that there are likely to be strong seasonal trends in D2C demand. Essentially, visits to rural and remote areas are highest when the weather is warm, with people travelling much less to locations such as national parks in the winter.

Consequently, many consumers will not require D2C services each month. For example, a person living in New York City who travels to a national park twice a year will likely only need D2C services for two months out of the entire year.

But why does this matter to mobile network operators? As discussed, the current choices for consumers to access D2C are either via a bolt-on or to purchase a mobile tariff with D2C included. Whilst these business models will work for some consumers, Juniper Research believes that a monthly cost for a service not used each month of the year will undermine adoption of D2C. Many consumers will believe they should only be paying a monthly subscription for a service if they are using it every month, and that they are wasting money during the months they do not.

Specifically, mobile network operators and their satellite network operator partners should explore the possibility of offering a temporary access model to consumers. This business model would mirror that of travel eSIMs, where consumers also purchase temporary access to mobile services for a specific location or area. Obviously, purchases would need to be made in advance of travelling to remote and rural areas.

Undoubtedly, introducing a new business model will be complex for both mobile network operators and satellite network operators. For example, revenue predictability would be substantially impacted, necessitating new models for predicting demand, and satellite network operators may need to make changes to their business support systems.

However, these complications could be offset by the increase in premium for D2C services created by a temporary access model. Certainly, to a consumer who requires D2C for 7-days a year, paying $7 for those 7 days will be far more appealing than committing to a bolt-on which, over the course of the year, will cost $180 - despite the cost for the 7-day plan being twice as expensive on a per-day basis.

Juniper Research also notes that a travel eSIM-style model would also increase the opportunities for mobile network operators and satellite providers to partner with enterprises for distribution. D2C services are currently only available through mobile network operators; however, with a travel eSIM-style model, mobile network operators could explore partnerships with national park services or travel agencies to bundle D2C services with their offerings. For example, mobile network operators could bundle a 7-day, private, non-commercial vehicle pass ($35 dollars) and entry ($20) to a national park with 7 days of D2C access ($7) for $55 dollars total; offering a customer discount when bundled together.

Overall, mobile network operators are in a position technologically to expand outdoor coverage in rural and remote areas through their D2C offerings, with Juniper Research anticipating more than 20 million monthly, active, D2C users to be added each year beyond 2027. However, mobile network operators have an opportunity to accelerate this growth by providing consumers with greater flexibility in choice for their D2C services. 

Alex is a Senior Research Analyst within Juniper Research’s Telco & Connectivity team, focusing on the latest developments in operator and telecommunications markets. His latest reports include Direct Carrier Billing, MVNO in a Box, and Direct to Satellite.