The Foldable iPhone Will Be Niche, Very Niche

September 2026

Telecoms & Connectivity

Ardit Ballhysa

Senior Research Analyst

Apple’s long-anticipated launch of a foldable iPhone is all but confirmed to be announced at the company’s annual Apple Event 2026, which is being held on September 9th this year. Prominent industry commentators with access to sources within Apple, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, who has a strong track record of making correct predictions, are bullish on the prospect of Apple announcing a foldable iPhone at the September event.

Alongside the foldable iPhone, Apple is expected to announce the next iteration of its iPhone and smartwatch lineup – the iPhone 18 series, which may include the iPhone 18, 18 Pro, and 18 Pro Max, as well as the Apple Watch series 12, and Apple Watch Ultra 4.

The foldable iPhone marks Apple’s entry into the foldable smartphone market that, albeit only representing less than 5% of the total smartphone market, continues to grow with no hints of abating. Rival smartphone manufacturers, such as Samsung and Huawei, have been releasing foldable smartphones for many years now, with Samsung declaring in 2025 and 2026 that their Fold lineup broke pre-order sales records in both years across the US and Europe, respectively. Despite only making up a small proportion of the total smartphone market, there is clearly significant consumer appetite for foldable phones.

Apple’s entry into the market, however, does not guarantee success or leader status. Smart home offerings, for instance, are dominated by Google’s Nest and Amazon’s Alexa lineups. Moreover, its extended reality headset, Apple Vision Pro, although not a direct competitor to Meta’s Quest lineup, has failed to grab meaningful market share in the headset space. What does give credence to the notion that Apple will be successful in the foldable smartphone space, is the company’s approach to its devices; namely a premium level of refinement.

Apple-esque Refinement

Apple’s prospects for successfully competing in - and becoming a leader in - the foldable smartphone market will be driven largely by the technology embedded within its foldable iPhone, which must translate to a premium and highly refined product to its consumers.

It has been reported that Apple has pioneered and trademarked a new type of display that will significantly reduce the appearance of a crease when the smartphone screen is fully extended. Other than the high price point, the crease between the two displays is frequently cited by consumers as a major reason for not adopting a foldable smartphone, so if Apple is able to resolve the crease issue, it’ll win over consumers that have thus far avoided them. 

Moreover, Apple’s prospects of success will inevitably be bolstered by upsell to its loyal fanbase, which many of whom refuse to purchase smartphones from other manufacturers. Apple already offers select services free for three months to consumers that purchase certain Apple devices. With the foldable iPhone, Apple may well extend this offer to six months, or give consumers free access to the Apple One entertainment package for three months, without the caveat of being applicable to new subscribers only. At the steep price that the foldable iPhone is expected to launch, at around £2,000, it would serve the company well to incentivise consumers with promotional access to Apple One. Not only would this appeal to current iPhone users considering upgrading to the foldable, but also to non-iPhone users that may be drawn to the premium feel and unique design of the foldable iPhone.

Challenges

The largest challenge facing the adoption of Apple’s foldable iPhone is the potential price point. The company’s highest selling iPhone in terms of volume is typically its baseline models (ie the iPhone 17, iPhone 16 etc); suggesting that most consumers prefer budget-friendly models. This leaves the foldable iPhone in a precarious position where shipping volumes are likely to be much lower than other cheaper models. To compete in the foldable smartphone market, however, shipment volumes only need to compete with rival foldables, which in the overall smartphone market is much lower.

To justify the likely high price point of its foldable phone, Apple would do well to engineer unique use cases that are available exclusively on the foldable. It would have to think larger than simply offering users the ability to multitask via opening more than one app at the same time. The likelihood of a lack of Face ID and a telephoto camera also doesn’t do the foldable iPhone any favours, and may make it harder for some to justify the price.

Moreover, other foldable brands, particularly Samsung and Huawei’s offerings, have a clear advantage in the foldable space in terms of product maturity as they have been releasing foldable smartphones since 2019. The seven-year gap has given Samsung and Huawei ample time to refine their products, supply chain, and channel reach. It is extremely unlikely that Apple has merely been on the sidelines without observing the foldables market, but the additional experience and consumer feedback that its rival enjoy are indispensable.

In summary, the foldable smartphone market will almost certainly see a boost with the release of Apple’s foldable iPhone; however the category will continue to remain niche. Likewise, the product will also hold a niche role within Apple’s smartphone lineup. Smartphone manufacturers have been seeking a magic bullet to revitalise sales for some years now – but Juniper Research believes this is unlikely to be foldables.