Hampshire, UK – 3rd February 2025: New research from global tech strategists Juniper Research has found that eCommerce fraud will rise from $56bn in 2025 to $131bn in 2030; posting a 133% increase over the period.
This surge is fuelled by rising friendly fraud, where legitimate transactions are being fraudulently disputed.
Shane O’Sullivan, Research Analyst, explained: “The fastest-growing form of eCommerce fraud is not criminals breaking in, it is bad actors blending in. A significant proportion of consumers file disputes without first contacting merchants, and many disputes stem from misunderstanding or misuse of promotions and chargeback systems; increasing losses.”
An extract from the new report, eCommerce Fraud Prevention Market 2025-2030, is now available as a free download.
Persistent Fraud to Erode Margins, Leading to Heavy Investment in Prevention Tech
The research found that friendly fraud is heavily impacting merchant margins, with chargebacks in particular increasingly triggering higher processing fees. The report highlights that businesses will accelerate investment in prevention systems, particularly in North America, which is disproportionately impacted by friendly fraud. As such, by 2030, over 70% of global eCommerce fraud prevention spend will be from North America.
Fraud prevention specialists must position systems as essential margin-protection infrastructure; enabling merchants to contain fraud costs before they scale alongside transaction volumes.
“Vendors are building AI-driven, fraud prevention platforms; moving fraud prevention to a proactive footing. Simultaneously, regulators are expanding digital identity frameworks and tightening compliance. Together, this creates a competitive ecosystem where innovation and accuracy are key differentiators. As abuse becomes increasingly driven by specific accounts and identities, prevention vendors must shift away from securing individual transactions and pivot towards persistent identity signals,” O’Sullivan concluded.
The new market research suite offers the most comprehensive assessment of the eCommerce Fraud Prevention market to date; providing analysis and forecasts of over 30,000 datapoints across 61 countries over five years. It includes a ‘Competitor Leaderboard’ and an examination of current and future market opportunities.
About Juniper Research
Juniper Research is a global tech strategist firm providing research, data, and forecasting across the fintech, telecoms, and IoT sectors. For over 20 years, Juniper Research has delivered actionable insights that help industry leaders navigate disruption, seize opportunities, and make confident strategic decisions. www.juniperresearch.com
Press Contact
Sam Smith, Press Relations
sam.smith@juniperresearch.com
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