The Value of Revenue Lost to Chargeback Fraud Will Exceed $38 Billion in 2031

Chargebacks are now an established part of the payments industry. Initially introduced to help customers resolve issues related to unauthorised purchases, faulty goods, or unfulfilled services, the idea behind them was also to provide consumers with greater protection against vendor malpractice. However, chargebacks have provided an opportunity for fraud to take place; abusing their original intent.

There are primarily three key situations in which an individual will issue a chargeback:

• Legitimate Chargebacks: Legitimate chargebacks are when a customer has been defrauded by a third-party fraudster.
• Erroneous Chargebacks: This is when a customer does not understand their transaction history, or does not remember a particular transaction, and requests a chargeback on a transaction they  mistakenly think is fraudulent.
• Chargeback/Friendly Fraud: This is when a customer requests a chargeback on a transaction that they know is legitimate or was made in accordance with terms and conditions to which they agreed. 

About the Infographic

The infographic illustrates the value of revenue projected to be lost globally to friendly/chargeback fraud; providing a continent-wide breakdown of the total revenue forecast to be lost due to this type of fraud over the next five years.

Juniper Research estimates that the global total value of revenue lost to chargeback fraud will grow from $23.33 billion in 2026 to $38.73 billion in 2031. This includes direct transaction losses and associated chargeback fees.

Contrary to the perception often promoted on social media, chargeback fraud is not a victimless crime. Merchants bear the financial liability for fraudulent chargebacks; making dispute abuse a significant commercial risk. The substantial financial impact of chargeback fraud highlights the growing complexity of dispute management in digital commerce. Beyond direct revenue losses, merchants also incur higher payment processing costs, suffer reputational damage, and risk losing payment processing privileges if their chargeback ratios exceed card network thresholds.

Small and medium-sized merchants are expected to be disproportionately affected by rising chargeback fraud losses, as they often lack the advanced fraud prevention capabilities available to larger enterprises. Consequently, demand for managed fraud prevention services and automated dispute resolution platforms is expected to grow throughout the forecast period, as these businesses seek more effective ways to mitigate fraud and manage disputes.

Source: Chargeback Management Market 2026-2031

Read the Press Release: Friendly Fraud to Make Up 28% of Chargebacks Globally by 2031, Driven by Changing Consumer Attitudes Towards Merchants

Download the Whitepaper: Chargeback Management: The Fightback Against Friendly Fraud