What Do Trump's Tariffs Mean for Fintech & Payments?
(UPDATE: On April 9th, Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher US tariffs for affected countries, introducing instead a universal “reciprocal tariff” of 10%. However, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised sharply to 145%.)
The latest tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration’s have sent shockwaves through the global economy, rattling markets worldwide. In just a matter of days, the Nasdaq plunged 6%, the FTSE 100 slipped 1.5%, and Germany’s DAX dropped 3%.
While the immediate hit is focused on imported goods and the industries that support them, the ripple effects are likely to reach much further: putting even untargeted sectors like fintech and payments in the firing line.
What Are the Tariffs?
The tariffs are a flat tax applied to goods entering the US, with the cost falling on the companies doing the importing. The White House has announced a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with steeper rates targeting specific countries. Notably, Canada and Mexico were excluded from this latest round, though their goods are already subject to separate tariffs. According to the White House, these measures are being positioned as reciprocal, aiming to level the playing field.
Extent of Tariffs Imposed by the US (%)
Source: White House
Impact on Cross-border Payments
The B2B cross-border payments market is likely to feel the impact of the tariffs first and most acutely. These transactions are already more complex and costly than domestic payments, and the new tariffs will only add friction.
For providers, this could mean a drop in payment volumes to and from the US, with trade routes shifting as businesses look for more cost-effective options. Heavily impacted countries like Vietnam may see a sharp decline in transaction flow, while others with similar advantages but fewer trade barriers could benefit. Still, even with new corridors gaining traction, the overall volume of transfers is expected to fall. This downturn could squeeze smaller, less resilient players in the space and dampen momentum for innovation.
With fewer incentives to connect the US to global payment systems, efforts to streamline cross-border processes may start to lose steam.
What Will Happen to the Dollar?
Since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, the US dollar has held its place as the global reserve currency, becoming the de facto medium for international trade. Even when two countries trade without using the dollar domestically, transactions are often routed through it. But with US tariffs likely to dampen international trade, fewer businesses will see the need to hold or transact in dollars.
This shift comes as momentum builds behind BRICS Pay, especially following the October 2024 BRICS summit in Russia. Countries like Russia, Iran and China have been vocal about reducing their dependence on the dollar to sidestep Western sanctions and dilute the US’s financial influence. By weakening economic ties between the US and its trading partners, these tariffs may accelerate the adoption of alternative systems, particularly if China actively promotes participation.
This also ties into a broader global movement towards developing homegrown payment infrastructure. From Europe’s push for instant payment schemes to East Asia’s rise in QR code based solutions, domestic alternatives are increasingly competing with US-led networks such as Visa and Mastercard. As seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US can pressure these networks to suspend services, exposing the risks of overreliance. In response, many nations are seeking sovereign control over payment rails, and platforms like BRICS Pay or stablecoins offer potential routes around dollar-dominated systems.
While these tariffs didn’t spark the trend, they have certainly added fuel to the fire. Combined with rising geopolitical tensions, they are acting as a catalyst; driving countries to seek more control, more resilience, and fewer ties to US-led financial systems.
What Happens Next?
The tariffs came into force on Saturday 5th April, giving businesses and payment providers very little time to prepare. A point of uncertainty in this process is that critics argue the White House does not have the authority to implement these tariffs, as such measures typically fall within Congress’s remit. This opens the door for a legal challenge, as seen with other controversial executive orders, meaning the future of these tariffs is far from guaranteed.
If the tariffs are here to stay, it’s unlikely that they will push the US out of the trading landscape for many affected countries; the US remains too large a market to ignore. However, solutions that simplify the payment of tariffs, alongside digital methods for tracking goods, verifying their origin, and determining applicable tariffs, are likely to see increasing demand. This presents an opportunity for vendors who can crack these challenges.
Ultimately, this move will only complicate cross-border payments further and is likely to speed up existing trends that diminish the US dollar’s dominance in global trade.
A Senior Research Analyst at Juniper Research, Michael primarily conducts research on digital identity and payments markets. His recent reports include Chargeback Management, Digital Wallets, and Digital Identity.
Latest research, whitepapers & press releases
-
ReportOctober 2025Telecoms & Connectivity
Travel SIMs & eSIMs Market: 2025-2030
Our comprehensive Travel eSIMs research suite comprises detailed assessment of a market undergoing rapid growth. It provides insight into how travel eSIM providers can differentiate their services to maximise success in the market over the next two years.
VIEW -
ReportOctober 2025IoT & Emerging Technology
Direct to Satellite Market: 2025-2030
Juniper Research’s Direct to Satellite research suite provides satellite providers, investors, and partners, such as Mobile Network Operators, with an extensive analysis and insights into the direct to satellite market.
VIEW -
ReportSeptember 2025Fintech & Payments
Instant Payments Market: 2025-2030
Juniper Research’s Instant Payments research suite provides a wide-ranging and strategic analysis of this market; enabling stakeholders - from banks, infrastructure providers, regulators, and businesses - to understand future growth, key trends, and the competitive environment.
VIEW -
ReportSeptember 2025Fintech & Payments
Anti-money Laundering Systems Market: 2025-2030
Our AML Systems research suite provides a detailed and insightful analysis of this evolving market; enabling stakeholders from financial institutions, law enforcement agencies, regulatory bodies and technology vendors to understand future growth, key trends, and the competitive environment.
VIEW -
ReportSeptember 2025Fintech & Payments
A2A Payments Market: 2025-2030
Our A2A Payments research suite provides detailed analysis of this rapidly changing market; enabling A2A payments service providers to gain an understanding of key payment trends and challenges, potential growth opportunities, and the competitive environment.
VIEW -
ReportSeptember 2025Telecoms & Connectivity
Mobile Messaging Fraud Prevention Market: 2025-2030
Our Mobile Messaging Fraud Prevention research suite provides a detailed and insightful analysis of a market set for significant disruption over the next five years. It enables stakeholders from mobile operators, enterprises, and mobile messaging fraud prevention vendors to understand how the market for mobile messaging fraud will evolve, as well as the impact of AI, RCS, and the evolving competitive environment.
VIEW
-
WhitepaperOctober 2025IoT & Emerging Technology
Beam Me Up: The Direct to Satellite Revolution
Our complimentary whitepaper, Beam Me Up: The Direct to Satellite Revolution, evaluates the future key services that satellite providers must offer in the direct to satellite market.
VIEW -
WhitepaperOctober 2025Telecoms & Connectivity
Why Operators Are Launching Travel eSIMs in 2026
Our complimentary whitepaper, Why Operators Are Launching Travel eSIMs in 2026, examines the outlook of the travel eSIMs market over the next five years.
VIEW -
WhitepaperSeptember 2025Fintech & Payments
Core Banking Transformation - A Strategic Conversation with SAP Fioneer
Core banking transformation is no longer optional, as regulatory change, rising compliance costs, and shifting customer expectations make legacy systems unsustainable. Anna Koritz, Global Head of Transaction Banking at SAP Fioneer, shares how banks can overcome cultural and technical hurdles and why SAP Fioneer’s modular, cloud-ready approach enables confident modernisation.
VIEW -
WhitepaperSeptember 2025Fintech & Payments
From Detection to Prevention: The Next Era of Anti-money Laundering
Our complimentary whitepaper, From Detection to Prevention: The Next Era of Anti-money Laundering, examines the state of the AML systems market; considering the impact that a changing regulatory environment and a growing number of use cases is having on the market. Additionally, it includes a forecast summary of the total value of the AML systems market in 2030.
VIEW -
WhitepaperSeptember 2025Fintech & Payments
3 Key Trends Driving Instant Payments
Our complimentary whitepaper, 3 Key Trends Driving Instant Payments, assesses how key trends are driving the evolution of the instant payments market, and which challenges these resolve. Additionally, it includes a forecast summary of the global transaction values via instant payment schemes by 2029.
VIEW -
WhitepaperSeptember 2025Fintech & Payments
Ascending-to-Ailing: The Deceleration of A2A Adoption
Our complimentary whitepaper, Ascending-to-Ailing: The Deceleration of A2A Adoption, examines the state of the A2A payments market; considering the impact of this payment method and how it is shaping the modern payments landscape through lower fees and enriched user experience.
VIEW
-
Travel eSIMs Surge as Roaming Alternative - Up 85% in 2025
October 2025 -
Fintech & Payments
Juniper Research Unveils 2025’s Fintech & Payments Awards Winners
October 2025 -
IoT & Emerging Technology
Satellite Broadband Market to Break $20 Billion by 2030, as Satellite Constellations Disrupt Established Services
October 2025 -
Fintech & Payments
Subscription Economy to Reach $1.2 Trillion by 2030 Globally, Despite Increasing Subscription Fatigue
October 2025 -
Fintech & Payments
AML Systems Market to Surpass $75 Billion by 2030 Globally, With LexisNexis Risk Solutions, Oracle, and Experian Leading the Defence
September 2025 -
Fintech & Payments
Instant Payments to Exceed $110 Trillion by 2029 Globally, Accelerated by European Regulation & FedNow Impact
September 2025