The Distillery Thanksgiving Special: The Tech Trends to Watch (and Ignore) in 2026

November 2025

Fintech & Payments

Juniper Research

Analyst House

Happy Thanksgiving!

To mark the occasion, we’re hosting a little holiday extravaganza.

Alongside our annual fintech and telecoms trends whitepapers, we’ve pulled together a short list of things that aren’t going to happen in 2026 — despite what the industry chatter might suggest. Our anti-trends, if you will.

First up...

FINTECH & PAYMENTS

3 Things That WON'T Happen in Fintech & Payments in 2026

#1: Digital Travel Credentials

Your passport isn’t going anywhere. Digital travel credentials might be edging closer in theory, but in practice, they’re still stuck in the slow lane.

Governments and carriers don’t just need the tech to work; they need shared standards, interoperable systems, and enough trust to accept borderless digital identity at scale. And right now? Trials are popping up in isolated pockets, but they’re siloed, inconsistent, and nowhere near global readiness. Even with faster regulatory alignment, the operational overhaul needed across airports, airlines, and border control simply won’t land within a year.

#2: CBDCs Entering the Mainstream

If you were hoping 2026 would be the year Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) finally hit their stride, brace yourself; momentum is slowing, not surging.

Stablecoins are drawing most of the market’s attention — from investment to technical development — which leaves CBDCs positioned more as long-term projects than near-term priorities. The policy backdrop is also shifting. The Trump administration’s stated opposition to a US-backed CBDC is dampening international confidence and encouraging other central banks to take a more cautious, wait-and-see approach.

#3: Cash Dying Out

Despite the many, many digital payment options out there, rumours of cash's demise are still greatly exaggerated.

Regulators in major markets are actually strengthening rules to ensure people can continue accessing physical currency; recognising its role in financial inclusion and overall system resilience. Banks may keep scaling back their branch networks, but policymakers are protecting core cash infrastructure; particularly for rural areas and those who rely on it.

While cash usage is declining — in the UK, it fell to around 9% of all payments in 2024, down from 23% in 2019 — there will always be a baseline level of cash circulating in the global economy.

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Of course, it's not all doom and gloom.

If you want the full story of what will reshape fintech and payments in 2026, check out our Top 10 Fintech & Payments Trends 2026 — a deep dive into the technologies, market shifts, and regulatory developments set to define the next twelve months.

1. Stablecoins to Rival Existing Interbank Settlement Layer
2. Agentic Commerce to Reshape B2B & Consumer Purchasing
3. EUDI Wallet to Redefine Digital Identity in Europe
4. Tokenised Assets Will Enter the Mainstream
5. GenAI to Transform Banking
6. Flexible Credentials Will Drive Payment Card Renaissance
7. AI Fraud Prevention Investment to Rise Amid Deepfake Threats
8. Pay by Bank to Scale in the UK Via Commercial VRPs
9. No-code AML Adoption to Extend Beyond Banks
10. Virtual Cards Will Take Off Within Travel Payments

GET THE WHITEPAPER

TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

3 Things That WON'T Happen in Telecoms & Connectivity in 2026

#1: Satellite Operators Becoming MNOs

Even with the rise of direct-to-device services, satellite operators aren't on course to become full mobile network operators in 2026.

Simply put, the investment required to build or acquire terrestrial infrastructure remains substantial, and with mobile networks already largely saturated in major markets, the commercial return simply isn’t there. Moving into the MNO space would mean absorbing spectrum costs, meeting nationwide coverage obligations, and operating within regulatory frameworks that established operators have spent decades navigating — a shift that offers little strategic advantage for satellite providers.

#2: RCS Conversational Messaging

Despite growing interest in agentic AI and its potential to transform customer interactions, RCS-based conversational messaging is not set to accelerate in 2026.

The technology is maturing, but the commercial foundations are not. For RCS to support large-scale conversational engagement, stakeholders need a clear understanding of how interactions automated by AI agents are billed on a per-conversation basis — something that remains an unfamiliar and complex challenge for much of the communications ecosystem. Until that model is established, adoption will move more slowly than the hype might suugest.

#3: Operator Focus on Sustainability

Network sustainability will remain important in 2026, but operators’ priorities are shifting.

Rather than focusing primarily on carbon-emissions targets, the industry is moving toward a more immediate and measurable goal; reducing overall energy consumption across the network. The two are connected, but rising electricity costs and increasing pressure on operational budgets mean energy efficiency is becoming the dominant lens through which sustainability decisions are made.

For many operators, cutting energy usage delivers both environmental and financial impact — and far more quickly than broader decarbonisation initiatives.

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And now here's 10 things that WILL happen.

At the risk of sounding repetitive, we've just released our Top 10 Telecoms & Connectivity Trends 2026 — our annual guide to how the business of connectivity is evolving and what you can do to stay ahead.

1. AI Agents Will Redefine Customer Interaction at Scale
2. MVNOs and Travel eSIMs Converge to Serve the Global Roamer
3. RCS Business Messaging Becomes Major Battleground for Fraud
4. New Partnerships Between Digital Marketing Agencies & CPaaS Platforms
5. Multi-orbit Satellite Networks Lay the Groundwork for Next-gen Connectivity
6. Messaging and Voice Verification Begin to Converge for Enterprise Security
7. Substantial Growth in MVNO Launches Across Key Industries
8. 6G Research Accelerates with Focus on Terahertz Spectrum Innovation
9. KYC APIs See Rapid Adoption Across Digital Services in 2026
10. Consumer eSIM Provisioning to Be Streamlined to Accommodate Market Shifts
8. Pay by Bank to Scale in the UK Via Commercial VRPs
9. No-code AML Adoption to Extend Beyond Banks
10. Virtual Cards Will Take Off Within Travel Payments

GET THE WHITEPAPER

ICYMI

The Last Drop

We can’t fit all our work from the last fortnight in one issue, so here’s a hand-picked selection of blogs, infographics, and insights that deserve your attention.

📲 eSIM connections will surge 300% globally — with China alone adding 1.7 billion mobile subscriptions, as its nationwide roll-out accelerates.

📶 5G SA is finally taking off in the UK. But what does 'true' 5G actually mean for consumers — and how different will their mobile experience really become?

🔒 AML adoption is projected to reach 3 million businesses worldwide by 2027 — a major compliance shift for fintechs, banks, and payment providers.

🏆 The modern card issuing market is set to more than double by 2030, as Thales, IDEMIA, and FIS lead a new generation of instant, API-driven issuance.

💳 How will you pay in a few years? Here's what’s next in card acceptance — and why the next checkout could look nothing like today’s.

🌍 Cross-border A2A transactions are set to pass 11 billion in 2026, as improved interoperability and Open Banking rails speed up global money flows.

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