The Distillery #4: MEF & Home Office Plot A2P SMS Fraud Fightback

May 2025

Telecoms & Connectivity

Juniper Research

Analyst House

In this edition:

• Pix Automático launches next month — why it's set to supercharge Brazil’s instant payments ecosystem
• Smart traffic systems shift gears — SaaS to drive $20bn market by 2027
• Why MEF and the UK Home Office are teaming up against A2P SMS fraud
• Our latest insights on BNPL, private networks, AI in fintech, and MVNO-in-a-Box

FINTECH & PAYMENTS

Pix Automático to Drive Next Phase of Instant Payments in Brazil

Brazil’s Pix system is set to take a major step forward next month with the launch of Pix Automático (Automatic Pix) on June 16th.

Designed for services such as subscriptions, tuition, and utilities, Pix Automático will allow consumers to authorise recurring payments with a single approval via their banking app. Pix is already one of the most successful instant payment systems globally; recording over 6 billion transactions in March 2025 alone.

Distilled…

🟣 Brazil is a powerhouse for instant payments, with our latest data predicting transaction volumes will surge 94% between 2025 and 2028. The driving force? Pix — thanks to its pivotal role in boosting financial inclusion. Pix Automático builds on this momentum; making recurring payments accessible to millions without credit cards.

🟣 Cost will be a big draw for merchants. While Pix Automático requires more setup than standard Pix, its lower transaction fees compared to credit cards — still the default for recurring payments in Brazil — make it a compelling cost-saving alternative.

🟣 There’s a lot for consumers to love too. Pix Automático gives users full control over their recurring payments through the Pix app, with simple authorisation, monitoring, and cancellation. Payments are processed via secure account debits; removing the usual headaches of expired cards, fraud, or credit limits.

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SUSTAINABILITY & SMART CITIES

SaaS Set to Power $20bn Smart Traffic Market by 2027

Smart traffic management is definitely picking up speed. Our newest research shows the market is set to hit $20 billion by 2027 — up from $15 billion this year, thanks to new sustainability goals and the need to address rapid urbanisation; particularly in emerging markets.

While challenges like legacy systems and tight budgets remain, progress is underway. The real game-changer? Modular, service-based solutions that make it easier, more affordable, and flexible for cities to adopt new technology.

Distilled…

🟣 Sustainability is a major accelerator. Smart traffic systems are gaining traction as governments look to cut emissions and reduce urban congestion. With urban populations swelling, particularly in developing regions, the need for scalable, future-ready infrastructure is urgent.

🟣 The real breakthrough? SaaS. Subscription-based models are becoming critical to making smart traffic systems more accessible; especially for smaller cities and local authorities. By lowering upfront costs and offering modular add-ons such as AI-powered analytics, vendors can deliver quicker ROI and build trust.

🟣 Vendors who play it smart now could double their opportunity. If SaaS becomes standard practice, the market could swell to $32 billion by 2030. With sensor costs dropping and analytics tools becoming more sophisticated, the next few years could redefine urban mobility.

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TELECOMS & CONNECTIVITY

MEF and Home Office Team Up to Strengthen A2P SMS Anti-fraud

The UK is stepping up its response to telecom fraud. Earlier this week, at MEF Connects Business Messaging, the Mobile Ecosystem Forum (MEF) and the UK Home Office hosted a joint session on the latest updates to the UK Telecom Fraud Charter — due to be finalised this autumn.

The goal? To build a tougher, more unified front against A2P SMS fraud and strengthen both the UK Telecom Fraud Charter and MEF’s Business SMS Code of Conduct.

Distilled…

🟣 The scale of the challenge is clear. Our latest research puts losses from fraudulent SMS scams last year at $98.6 billion; highlighting the urgent need for stronger measures.

🟣 Industry input will shape the next wave of anti-fraud. The Home Office will work closely with key messaging players — including mobile operators and CPaaS providers — tapping into their unique market visibility to build smarter, more effective initiatives.

🟣 It’s time to name and shame. The Home Office plans to publicly report breaches of the Code of Conduct, aiming to deter bad actors and mirror recent actions by the FCC in the US.

🟣 Expect tighter coordination across the board, with Ofcom, the NCSC, and UK law enforcement driving more effective, joined-up enforcement. However, with A2P SMS fraud still making headlines globally, these efforts must be matched by regulators worldwide to fully close existing gaps in the ecosystem.

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ICYMI

Signal Boost

💰 Click to Pay and bank-backed wallets are on the rise, while Buy Now, Pay Later is losing steam amid growing competition and tighter regulations.

🛡️ Private networks are on the rise, with deployments set to surge by 2030 as businesses double down on data control, security, and real-time threat response.

🤖 Fintech’s excitement around AI is starting to fade, as barriers to broader adoption mount — raising the question: are we in a bubble, or a shift toward more sustainable, strategic use?

📱 And finally, why are fintech players such as Revolut and N26 launching their own mobile network offerings?

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