5 Key Questions Shaping the Future of Direct-to-Satellite Connectivity

June 2025

Telecoms & Connectivity

Sam Barker

VP of Telecoms Market Research

The telecoms market is undergoing notable disruption, with emerging technologies disrupting established practices. One of these technologies is satellite communications; specifically those that enable devices like smartphones to connect directly with satellite networks when terrestrial networks are unavailable.

To capitalise on the direct-to-satellite opportunity, a new ecosystem must be invested in, and new business models must be developed to maximise revenue from the demand for these new services. Indeed, the ecosystem has evolved substantially, with satellite constellations expected to play a defining role in direct-to-satellite connectivity provision.

There have been a few key announcements in the market so far this year:

• In March 2025, Google and Deutsche Telekom, in partnership with Skylo, announced the successful test of SMS over Satellite to a Google Pixel 9 equipped with a Cosmote SIM card.
• Skylo has also partnered with Viasat to trial narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) connectivity for low-power wide area (LPWA) connectivity. This will include 5G networks using GEO satellites.
• T-Mobile and Starlink have partnered to trial direct-to-satellite messaging in the US. It is expected that the partnership will lead to testing voice and data services over direct-to-satellite networks later in 2025.
• In May 2025, AST SpaceMobile acquired spectrum from Ligado; a satellite connectivity provider. This will enable AST SpaceMobile to offer direct-to-satellite services in the US without partnering with a US network operator.

As we enter the second half of 2025, it’s evident that the development of direct-to-satellite services is accelerating, and that market stakeholders must begin preparing to commercialise services beyond emergency response. To do this, Juniper Research has identified five key questions that we believe must be addressed before the end of the year, if service providers wish to position their services best:

#1: How can direct-to-satellite integrate with existing network technologies?

Ensuring that direct-to-satellite technologies are interoperable with terrestrial networks is essential to growth. Juniper Research believes that the value proposition of direct-to-satellite is its ability to provide global coverage. However, the technology will not compete with terrestrial technologies; instead being used to provide users with a more reliable and seamless global experience.

Especially during initial deployments, the satellite connectivity market must leverage the existing user base of terrestrial connectivity solutions, including cellular networks, fibre networks, and Wi-Fi. Overall, the demand for connectivity is well established, and satellite connectivity is entering a highly saturated market. To become a commercially viable technology, it must be integrated with existing networks, and we believe that telecom networks provide the best platform to do so.

#2: How much will it cost to acquire spectrum for satellites?

Spectrum for satellite communications is provided by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). However, a provider must also attain terrestrial spectrum, which is typically allocated by a country’s national telecommunications regulatory body, such as the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC). For larger service providers or tier 1 network operators, service revenue may easily cover this cost.

Additional changes to spectrum acquisition will impact the ability to launch satellite connectivity services. Spectrum bands for satellite communications are rarely auctioned, but are almost exclusively agreed upon between the service provider and the International Telecommunication Union. This enables the service provider to better plan for service launches and financial commitments. Additionally, these agreements are typically longer than terrestrial agreements.

The high costs and extended agreements may dissuade smaller service providers from entering the market. However, Juniper Research believes that smaller providers will negate the spectrum acquisition cost through partnerships with leading players in the initial stages of leasing spectrum.

#3: How will the current telecoms market impact demand for direct-to-satellite connectivity?

To predict the success of direct-to-satellite solutions, we must also evaluate the general state of telecoms.

The telecoms market is shifting as operators’ strategies increasingly focus on increasing revenue from enterprise clients rather than mobile subscribers. We expect demand for satellite connectivity to establish as the ecosystem develops, with many enterprise IoT users happy to use terrestrial networks for the foreseeable future.

#4: What key use cases will drive a return on investment?

Juniper Research believes that connectivity markets must be split between enterprise and consumer users. These markets are categorised by different addressable user bases, revenue potential, and business models. The direct-to-satellite market is no different; as the use cases in these markets are different, so must be the monetisation models used.

• Creating appealing business models for consumers is far simpler than the enterprise sector, as a ‘one size fits all’ approach is likely to work. However, the value of satellite connectivity to mobile subscribers is expected to be low. Indeed, as direct-to-satellite services become more common, Juniper Research believes that many mobile subscribers will not be willing to pay a premium for this additional connectivity, and will expect it to be included in the current monthly expenditure.
• The enterprise sector requires more consideration, given the varying demands from different sectors. As a result, to attract enterprise users, service providers must offer flexible pricing models to end users which enable them to best forecast their spending on satellite services.

Notably, the public sector is expected to be amongst the first to adopt satellite services, but mainly for military use cases. Service providers must treat these use cases as commercial, despite dealing with publicly funded entities.

#5: Which business models will best position service providers to capitalise on direct-to-satellite?

Once use cases become more established, the final question for operators is how best to monetise the connectivity being provided. Whilst this will vary from industry to industry, there are various ways in which satellite providers can monetise their services. However, we believe that a hybrid model will be the most successful model in the long term. The hybrid model will integrate terrestrial and non-terrestrial network connectivity.

The key benefit of this model is the ability to immediately benefit from the sizeable and established user base of cellular network users. However, encouraging users to spend more on connectivity will prove a substantial hurdle in the consumer sector, so service providers must focus this model on the enterprise sector. Satellite connectivity must be integrated into IoT management platforms to maximise the benefits.

As VP of Telecoms Market Research at Juniper Research, Sam produces high-quality research on telecommunications technologies and the future of digital content. His recent reports include CPaaS, Direct-to-Cell, and Future Leaders 100: Telco. Sam has been interviewed by leading media outlets, including the BBC and Wall Street Journal, and is a regular contributor to messaging conferences and telecommunications industry events.