Hampshire, UK – 29th January 2025: A new study from Juniper Research, the foremost experts in fintech and payments markets, has revealed that the value of fraudulent eCommerce transactions for physical goods will reach $10 billion globally in 2025; rising from $8.8 billion last year.
Deepfakes and Synthetic IDs
Increasingly complex fraud methods, such as deepfakes and synthetic IDs, are driving the growth of remote physical goods fraud. To counter this, the report identified liveness detection, an anti-spoofing solution that is used to check the authenticity of identities, as key to minimising losses to this fraud in the future.
An extract from the new report, Global Merchant Fraud Prevention Market 2024-2029, is now available as a free download.
Behavioural-linked Verification
The report warned that a comprehensive portfolio of fraud prevention tools is needed to minimise these losses. It predicts that behaviour-linked verification solutions will be key to diminishing the effectiveness of fraud strategies. Given consumers typically make purchases from a limited number of frequently used locations, geolocation verification has been identified as a highly valuable tool in fighting fraud.
Report author Thomas Wilson added, “eCommerce merchants must couple automated AI defence systems with human-piloted checks. This will combat sophisticated fraud tactics, such as synthetic returns labels and accurately weighted packages, that have enabled fraudsters to receive eCommerce goods for free.”
What Must Fraud Prevention Vendors Do
The research also found that combining continuous checks, such as behavioural analytics with step-up verification via biometrics, can recognise fraud patterns that humans often miss, and must be deployed to help identify patterns in real-time. Therefore, vendors must develop solutions that focus on fighting tactics that deceive prevention tools at key points in the customer journey, most prominently, the point of payment.
About the Research Suite
The new market research suite offers the most comprehensive assessment of the merchant fraud prevention market to date; providing analysis and forecasts of over 25,000 datapoints across 60 countries over five years. It includes a ‘Competitor Leaderboard’ and examination of current and future market opportunities.
Juniper Research has, for two decades, provided market intelligence and advisory services to the global financial sector, and is retained by many of the world’s leading banks, intermediaries and providers.
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