Hampshire, UK – 1st December 2025: A new study by global tech strategists Juniper Research has revealed the transaction value of fraudulent digital goods is outpacing physical goods fraud; rising 162% from a base of $10.4 billion in 2025.
The report highlights synthetic identity use, promo-abuse, and friendly fraud as key drivers behind the surge in digital goods fraud, with fraudsters using AI tools to reach scale.
“Mobile-first purchasing, gaming, streaming, and apps are widening the attack surface for fraudsters. Instant delivery provides a near-zero intervention time, meaning traditional fraud tools struggle to detect and block fraud before fulfilment. The rise of synthetic identity fraud and credential-stuffing attacks are also enabling far more sophisticated, high-impact risks.” explained Shane O’Sullivan, Research Analyst at Juniper Research.
An extract from eCommerce Fraud Prevention Market 2025-2030, is now available as a free download.
Digital Goods Fraud Is Redefining Risk in eCommerce
Juniper Research’s latest analysis revealed that the fastest growing attacks stem from behaviour that appears legitimate: authorised accounts, valid payment credentials and clean device histories. This evolving pattern, fuelled by continuous leaking of credentials and AI-driven spoofing, creates fraud that mimics genuine customers; resulting in systems treating it as benign until fulfilment is complete.
As such, the report identified the next generation of fraud defence as shifting from identifying ’bad transactions’ to modelling intent, behavioural deviation, contextual identity, and detecting cross-merchant reputation signals by incorporating advanced AI models.
“The reduced time to intervene means eCommerce fraud prevention providers must shift to AI-powered, real-time prevention. If these providers fail to implement proactive techniques such as behavioural biometrics, merchants will drown in increased fraud risks, eroding profitability.” O’Sullivan concluded.
The new market research suite offers the most comprehensive assessment of the eCommerce fraud prevention market to date, providing analysis and forecasts of over 30,000 data points across 61 countries over five years. It includes a ‘Competitor Leaderboard’ and examination of current and future market opportunities.
About Juniper Research
Juniper Research is a global tech strategist firm providing research, data, and forecasting across the fintech, telecoms, and IoT sectors. For over 20 years, Juniper Research has delivered actionable insights that help industry leaders navigate disruption, seize opportunities, and make confident strategic decisions. www.juniperresearch.com
Press Contact:
Sam Smith, Press Relations
sam.smith@juniperresearch.com
Related Research
For related research please browse our Fintech & Payments section and associated topics:
