What Do Trump's Tariffs Mean for Telecoms & 6G?

April 2025

Telecoms & Connectivity

Sam Barker

VP of Telecoms Market Research

(UPDATE: On April 9th, Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher US tariffs for affected countries, introducing instead a universal “reciprocal tariff” of 10%. However, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised sharply to 145%.)

Last week, the Trump Administration introduced sweeping new tariffs, marking a major shift in its international trade policy. These tariffs are set to significantly impact both the US economy and global trade, despite being announced only recently. They impose a minimum 10% tax on all imported goods, with some countries facing even higher rates.

Tariffs Imposed by the US in April 2025 (%)

Source: White House

In response, nations including China, Canada, and the European Union have revealed plans to impose their own tariffs on the US, fuelling concerns over a potential ‘trade war’ between some of the world’s largest economies. Large US companies, particularly those dependent on international supply chains, stand to lose the most from these new measures. In the tech sector, firms like Apple and Microsoft, which rely on multiple components for their devices, have already seen sharp declines in share prices.

While these tariffs will undoubtedly disrupt global supply chains, telecoms network hardware is a unique case. With high-value, low-volume trade, telecom operators typically make infrequent, large purchases. Given the small number of vendors in the market, we don’t expect operators to benefit from switching to new hardware suppliers. Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung account for more than 90% of the global market share. Operators have already been banned from using Huawei and ZTE equipment in various regions, and local players often lack the production capacity to meet demand. As a result, operators have little choice but to bear the cost of these tariffs.

The Immediate Impact on US Telecom Operators

These tariffs have immediately driven up costs for vendors in the US, but network operators are in a somewhat unique position. The major players in the country - AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon - operate in a highly standardised industry with a limited pool of vendors to choose from when upgrading their networks. Although the first commercial 5G launch in the US took place in 2019, operators continue to upgrade existing 5G networks as they focus on rolling out services aimed at attracting enterprise clients.

The key question across industries is how much of these cost increases will be passed on to the end user. For telecoms, we expect operators to pass the higher costs of network upgrades and maintenance onto mobile subscribers, driven by the slim profit margins tied to consumer subscriptions. US operators have also been focused on reducing their total cost of ownership (TCO) for networks, a key factor in the standardisation of 5G networks.

Impact on 6G Development and the Road Ahead

However, these tariffs come at a pivotal time for telecoms, as the development of 6G networks has just begun. Industry bodies like 3GPP, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) have already started discussing the technical requirements for 6G. The expected revenue boost from 5G has yet to materialise, with many operators still struggling to secure a return on their 5G investments; a mistake they cannot afford to repeat with 6G.

When 5G was first discussed, there was a strong focus on identifying ‘killer apps’ - use cases that would generate additional revenue for operators. However, the technology launched without a clear vision of what those use cases would be, leaving operators grappling with the challenge of securing a return on investment.

Looking ahead, Juniper Research believes that with 6G, operators will place greater emphasis on business models that attract high-spending enterprise clients. Moreover, they must aim to own the direct billing relationship for both services and connectivity, rather than simply acting as a ‘connectivity pipe’ in a B2B2C capacity.

But how do these tariffs impact 6G development? First, we need to consider the timelines for 6G and the timing of the next presidential election. Based on previous telecom network cycles and announcements from industry bodies, we expect network testing to begin around 2028, with a commercial launch in 2029; right at the end of the next election cycle.

If the tariffs are still in place by then, we anticipate that US operators will take a more cautious approach to 6G, potentially delaying the commercial launch as they seek to minimise investment costs. Given the lessons learned from 5G monetisation and the need for more evolved business models in 6G, these tariffs add another challenge for operators striving to maximise telecom service revenue.

As VP of Telecoms Market Research at Juniper Research, Sam produces high-quality research on telecommunications technologies and the future of digital content. His recent reports include Direct-to-Cell, Operator Revenue Strategies, and CPaaS.