Report Overview

Juniper Research’s latest BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) research provides a detailed analysis of the rapidly developing position of BNPL schemes in the expanding eCommerce and digital payments market. This includes an assessment of regulatory adjustments in the market and the resulting impact on the operations of BNPL vendors and the spending habits of consumers. Additionally, the research includes an extensive evaluation of 17 BNPL vendors via the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard.

The report covers the current opportunities within the eCommerce market, as well as the development opportunities in other markets such as healthcare and B2B lending. It also includes a comprehensive dataset for key BNPL metrics, including total digital BNPL and flexible credit users, total transaction volume, and total transaction value.

This research suite comprises:

  • Market Trends & Strategies (PDF)
  • Competitor Leaderboard (PDF)
  • Data & Forecasts (PDF & Excel)
  • 12 months' Access to harvest Online Data Platform
Key Market Statistics
Market Size in 2022: $112bn
Market Size in 2027: $437bn
2022 to 2027 Market Growth: 291%

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Key Features

  • Market Dynamics: Insight into the key trends and challenges within the BNPL payment market, addressing the impact of rising eCommerce usage, changes in consumption trends, and technological developments in the payments market.
  • Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: Analysis of key development opportunities within BNPL, accompanied by key strategic recommendations for stakeholders including BNPL providers, fintechs, and banks.
  • Benchmark Industry Forecasts: Includes forecasts for total number of users, transaction value and volume, and platform revenue for BNPL and flexible credit. This data is split by our 8 key forecast regions and 60 countries:
    • North America:
      • Canada, US
    • Latin America:
      • Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
    • West Europe:
      • Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
    • Central & East Europe:
      • Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine.
    • Far East & China:
      • China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea.
    • Indian Subcontinent:
      • Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan.
    • Rest of Asia Pacific:
      • Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
    • Africa & Middle East:
      • Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates.
  • Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment for 17 BNPL vendors, via the Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard:
    • Affirm
    • Afterpay
    • Cashew
    • Credi2
    • CredPal
    • Grab
    • Klarna
    • Kredivo
    • Laybuy
    • OpenPay
    • Payl8r
    • PayPal
    • Perpay
    • Sezzle
    • Simpl
    • Splitit
    • Zip

Key Questions Answered

  1. Will BNPL compete with credit cards in all markets?
  2. What recent trends have caused an increase in take up for BNPL schemes?
  3. Who are the leading vendors in BNPL and what are they doing successfully?
  4. What is the predicted value of the BNPL market and what factors are affecting this value?
  5. How do vendors effectively monetise payments?

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Affirm, Credi2, Grab.

Case Studies: Amazon, Barclays, Billie.
Included in Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Affirm, Afterpay, Cashew, Credi2, CredPal, Grab, Klarna, Kredivo, Laybuy, OpenPay, Payl8r, PayPal, Perpay, Sezzle, Simpl, Splitit, Zip.
Mentioned: Abu Dhabi Global Market, Advertising Standards Agency, American Express, ANZ, Ascent, Australian Finance Industry Association, Australian Securities and Investments Commission, Bank Negara Malaysia, Banxico, Brazilian National Monetary Council, Capital One Bank, Central Bank of Brazil, Central Bank of Russia, Chinese Central Bank, CIBC, Citizens Advice, Clearpay, Commerce Bank, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Delta Air Lines, Desjardins Group, Dubai Financial Services Authority, Dubai International Financial Centre, Equinox Payments, Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, Fifth Third, Financial Conduct Authority, Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, Financial Ombudsman Service, Financial Supervisory Authority, FIS, Galileo, GHL Systems Malaysia, HSBC, Huntington, i2c, Malaysian Central Bank, Marqeta, Mastercard, McKinsey & Co, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, Moneris, Monetary Authority of Singapore, National Banking and Securities Commission, National Monetary Council, Ontario Securities Commission, Qantas Loyalty, Quest Payment Systems, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Rocketbank, ScotiaBank, SoFi, Synchrony, Telkbank, Tinkoff Bank, Tochka, UAE Central Bank, Versapay, Visa, Woolard Review, Worldpay.

Data & Interactive Forecast

Juniper Research’s BNPL forecast suite includes:
  • Digital BNPL, Split by Device:
    • Mobile
    • Online
  • Flexible Credit, Split by Device:
    • Mobile
    • Online
  • The BNPL forecast includes digital BNPL and flexible credit users, payment transaction volume split by product, payment transaction value split by product and platform revenue.
  • Interactive Scenario Tool allowing users to manipulate Juniper Research’s data for 6 different metrics.
  • Access to the full set of forecast data of more than 71 tables and nearly 28,000 datapoints.

Geographical splits: 60 countries

Harvest: Our online data platform, harvest, contains the very latest market data and is updated throughout the year. This is a fully featured platform enabling clients to better understand key data trends and manipulate charts and tables, overlaying different forecasts within the one chart - using the comparison tool. Empower your business with our market intelligence centre, and get alerted whenever your data is updated.

Interactive Excels (IFxl): Our IFxl tool enables clients to manipulate both forecast data and charts, within an Excel environment, to test their own assumptions using the Interactive Scenario Tool and compare selected markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase a clients’ ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

Forecast Summary

The number of BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) users will surpass 900 million globally by 2027; increasing from 360 million in 2022. This substantial growth of 157% will be driven by the anticipated economic downturn, which will increase the demand for low-cost credit solutions.
  • BNPL schemes enable consumers to spread the cost of their purchases without interest charges; making them a highly attractive alternative to credit cards. Additionally, BNPL services do not require hard credit checks and an increasing number of merchants are accepting this payment method; making it easier to access for consumers than traditional credit.
  • India has potential for rapid growth in BNPL, with users predicted to grow from 25 million in 2022 to 116 million by 2027. This is due to rising eCommerce usage and growing interest in international goods available through online retailers.
  • In turn, the report recommends that vendors build strategic partnerships with vendors in developing markets with established consumer bases, to successfully capitalise on this user growth and associated revenue.
  • The adoption of virtual cards, where digital only cards are used for purchases, will increase the usage of BNPL solutions, as they only require merchants to accept card payments - overcoming previous limitations on growth. The advancement of virtual cards allows BNPL schemes to compete with credit cards; particularly in-store, where single use BNPL cards can be used within a digital wallet to complete contactless transactions.
  • In order to compete in this highly competitive landscape, BNPL vendors must differentiate their services: including offering virtual cards, browser extensions that automatically facilitate BNPL payment services, and digital loyalty schemes.

Full Research Suite


Full Research Suite

  • Full research suite
  • Competitor leaderboard report (pdf)
  • Market trends & strategies report (pdf)
  • Market data, forecasts and analysis report (pdf)
  • Market data, forecasts and interactivity (xls)
  • Quarterly updates to market data & forecasts (pdf, xls)
  • harvest market data platform (12 months’ online access)  - find out more

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Research FAQs

What new trends are driving adoption of BNPL schemes?
What is the predicted biggest market for BNPL?

Research Details

Juniper Research
Dominique Tetnowski
Fintech & Payments
8 Key Regions - includes North America, Latin America, West Europe, Central & East Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East
Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, UK, Uruguay, USA