Mobile Payments for Digital & Physical Goods

Overview

• Three Extensive Forecasting Chapters
• Established Third Edition Report
• Expert Assessment of the Industry

This in depth examination delivers the definitive valuation of the mobile payments for digital and physical goods sectors, providing intelligent analysis of developments within the ecosystem and sizing of the market for the next five years across three extensive forecast chapters.

Key forecasts include mobile payment transaction values, transaction frequencies (payment traffic) and ARPU.  The number of mobile payment users is calculated, as well as the number of mobile payment transactions, projecting the market opportunity for both remote mobile payments (such as ticketing and entertainment) and physical goods payments on the mobile, by eight key regions.

This fully updated addition to Juniper’s highly regarded mobile payment series, provides a detailed examination of the latest advances in the market over the past 12 months, gaining first hand insight live from players in the marketplace.  This third edition features, expanded vendor coverage – with an innovative vendor positioning matrix analysing 17 vendors within the mobile payments landscape as well as 18 vendor briefs with over 15 interviews from key executives within the market.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Mobile Commerce & Payments Market

1.1 Market Outline    21
1.1.1 Synopsis    21
1.1.2 Market Segmentation    22
Figure 1.1: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation    22
1.2 Market Drivers and Constraints    22
Figure 1.2: Mobile Payments: Summary of Market Drivers & Constraints    23
1.2.1 Drivers    23
i. Convenience & User Demand    23
ii. Increase in ARPU    23
iii. Larger Retail Transactions    24
iv. Cash Replacement    24
v. Developing World    24
vi. Lower Churn    24
vii. Smartphone Growth    25
viii. SMS    25
ix. eCommerce    25
1.2.2 Constraints    25
i. User Experience    25
ii. Business Model & Payouts    26
iii. Smartphone Proliferation    26
iv. Regulatory Hurdles    26
v. Transaction Costs    27
vi. Disclosure    27

Remote Payments: Case Studies & Solutions

2.1 Definition    29
Figure 2.1: mCommerce Payment Process    29
2.2 Market Segmentation    30
2.2.1 Top level Segments    30
Figure 2.2: Mobile Payments Market Segmentation    31
2.2.2 Market Segment Detail    31
i. Remote Payments    31
ii. Proximity/POS Payments    32
2.2.3 Market Segment Boundaries    32
i. Mobile Money Transfer Service Expansion    32
ii. Variation Within Segments    32
Figure 2.3: Arriva Buses Mobile Ticketing Service    33
iii. Platform & Service Extension    33
iv. Emerging Segments    34
2.2.4 Report Focus: What is Included?    34
Figure 2.4: Report Focus: Market Segments    34
2.3 Classification of Payment Schemes    35
Table 2.1: Mobile Payment Classification    35
2.3.1 Mobile Phone Bill – “D2B” (Direct to Bill) Payment    35
2.3.2 Premium Rate SMS (PSMS)    36
i. Advantages of PSMS Payment    36
ii. Disadvantages of PSMS Payment    37
2.3.3 Mobile Web & WAP Billing    37
2.3.4 SMS/Java/SIM Toolkit    38
Figure 2.5: PayPal Mobile “Text to Buy”    38
Figure 2.6: PayMate Purchase Process    39
2.3.5 Person-to-Person (P2P) Payment    39
2.3.6 Smartphone Apps    40
Figure 2.7: SBB Swiss Railways iPhone App    40
2.3.7 Contactless Payment    40
2.3.8 In Store    41
Figure 2.8: Mocapay Mobile Commerce Platform    41
2.4 On Deck & Off Deck    41
2.5 Market Trends: Players’ Views    42
2.5.1 Bango    42
2.5.2 Zong    43
Table 2.1: Zong Country Coverage    43
Figure 2.9: Zong Payment Index February 2010 to March 201: Global    45
2.5.3 Digby    45
2.5.4 MIG    46
2.5.5 mBlox    46
2.5.6 BOKU    47
2.5.7 BillingScore    47
Figure 2.10: BillingScore Product Data Point Checks    48

Vendor Positioning Analysis

4.1 Vendor Landscape    65
Figure 4.1: Mobile Payments Vendor Types    65
4.2 Vendor Analysis    66
4.2.1 New Vendor Assessment Criteria    66
Table 4.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors    67
4.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation    68
4.2.3 Vendor Matrix Positioning - 2011    68
Figure 4.2: Global Mobile Payments Vendor Positioning Matrix 2011    69
4.2.4 Vendor Groupings    69
i. Summary    69
ii. On Track Vendors    69
iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations    70
iv. Vendors with Further Potential    70

Vendor Briefs

5.1 Aepona    71
Figure 5.1: Aepona NaaS Concept    73
5.2 Alcatel-Lucent    73
5.3 Bango    75
5.4 BilltoMobile    76
5.5 BOKU    78
5.6 Digby    79
Figure 5.2: Digby Rich Retailer Branded App    81
5.7 eServGlobal    82
Figure 5.3: eServGlobal Product Overview    83
5.8 Ericsson    84
Figure 5.4: Ericsson IPX Ecosystem    85
5.9    IBM    86
5.10 Luup    88
5.11 mBlox    89
Figure 5.5: mBlox Transaction Network    90
5.12 MIG (Mobile Interactive Group)    91
5.13 Netsize    92
5.14 OpenMarket    94
Figure 5.6: OpenMarket Business Model    95
Figure 5.7: OpenMarket Services Overview    96
5.15 Sybase 365    96
5.16 tyntec    98
5.17 Vesta    100
Figure 5.8: Vesta Product Overview    101
5.18 Zong    101
Figure 5.9: Zong Mobile Payment    102
Market Forecasts: Remote Payments for Digital Goods    103

Market Forecasts: Remote Payments for Digital Goods

6.1 Methodology    103
6.1.1 Market Segmentation Approach    103
Figure 6.1: Market Forecast Methodology    104
6.2 Market Segment Trends    105
6.2.1 Music    105
6.2.2 Adult    106
6.2.3 TV    107
6.2.4 User Generated Content    108
6.2.5 Games    108
6.2.6 Infotainment    109
6.2.7 Ticketing    109
6.3 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast    110
Figure 6.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    110
Table 6.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    111
6.4 Global and Regional User Forecasts    111
Figure 6.3: Mobile Phone Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    112
Table 6.2: Mobile Phone Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    112
Figure 6.4: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods                             Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    113
Figure 6.5: Mobile Phone Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods                             Split by 8 Key Regions 2015    113
Table 6.3: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    114
6.5 Global and Regional Traffic Forecasts    115
Figure 6.6: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment User  for Digital Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    115
Table 6.4: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment User  for Digital Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    116
Figure 6.7: Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (bn) for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    116
Table 6.5:  Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (bn) for Digital Goods: Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    117
6.6 Global and Regional Transaction Value Forecasts    117
Figure 6.8: Average Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Size ($)                                         Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    118
Table 6.6: Average Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Size ($)                                         Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    118
Figure 6.9: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    119
Table 6.7: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    119
Figure 6.10: Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Value ($)  per mPayment User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    120
Table 6.8: Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Value ($) per mPayment User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    120

Market Forecasts: Remote Payments for Physical Goods

7.1 Methodology    121
7.2 Global Mobile Internet Subscriber Forecast    122
Figure 7.1: Global Mobile Internet Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    122
Table 7.1: Global Mobile Internet Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011–2015    124
7.3 Global and Regional User Forecasts    124
Figure 7.2: Mobile Internet Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    124
Table 7.2: Mobile Internet Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    125
Figure 7.3: Mobile Internet Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods                             Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    126
Figure 7.4: Mobile Internet Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods                             Split by 8 Key Regions 2015    126
Table 7.3: Mobile Internet Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    127
7.4 Global and Regional Traffic Forecasts    127
Figure 7.5: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment User  for Physical Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    127
Table 7.4: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment User  for Physical Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    128
Figure 7.6: Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) for Physical Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    129
Table 7.5:  Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    129
7.5 Global and Regional Gross Merchandise Sales Forecasts    129
Figure 7.7: Average Remote mPayment Physical Goods Transaction Size ($)                                     Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    130
Table 7.6: Average Remote mPayment Physical Goods Transaction Size ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    130
Figure 7.8: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value  for Physical Goods ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    131
Table 7.7: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value  for Physical Goods ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    132
Figure 7.9: Remote mPayment Physical Goods Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($) per mPayment User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    132
Table 7.8: Remote mPayment Physical Goods Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($) per mPayment User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    133

Market Forecasts: Total Remote Mobile Payment Market

8.1 Global and Regional User Forecasts    135
Figure 8.1: Digital Remote mPayments Users (m) Regional Comparison 2011 and 2015  Split by 8 Key Regions    136
Figure 8.2: Physical Remote mPayments Users (m) Regional Comparison 2011 and 2015 Split by 8 Key Regions    136
Table 8.1: Remote mPayments Users (m) Regional Comparison 2011 and 2015  Split by 8 Key Regions    137
Figure 8.3: Digital Remote mPayments Users (%) Regional Shares 2015 Split by 8 Key Regions    137
Figure 8.4: Physical Remote mPayments Users (%) Regional Shares 2015  Split by 8 Key Regions    138
Table 8.2: Remote mPayments Users (%) Regional Comparison 2015 Split by 8 Key Regions    138
8.2 Global and Regional Traffic Forecasts    139
Figure 8.5: Total Remote mPayment Transactions (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    139
Table 8.3: Total Remote mPayment Transactions (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    139
8.3 Global and Regional Transaction Size Forecasts    140
Figure 8.6: Average Remote mPayment Transaction Size ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    140
Table 8.4: Average Remote mPayment Transaction Size ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    141
8.4 Global and Regional Gross Merchandise Sales Forecasts    141
8.4.1 Gross Merchandise Sales by Region    141
Figure 8.7: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    142
Table 8.5: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    142
Figure 8.8: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    143
Table 8.6: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015    143
8.4.2 Gross Merchandise Sales Market Segmentation    143
Figure 8.9: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Digital vs. Physical Goods Comparison 2011-2015    144
Table 8.7: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Digital vs. Physical Goods Comparison 2011-2015    144
8.4.3 Conclusion    144

Companies Referenced

1-800 Flowers.com, 3 Italia, Advent Venture Partners, Aepona, Aeria Games, Aeroexpress, AFMM, airG, Airkenya, Alcatel-Lucent, All Night Media, Amadeus Capital Partners, Amazon.com, Amdocs, American Express, Andreessen Horowitz, Apple, Arriva Bus, Aruba Networks, AT&T, Babies "R" Us, Badoo, Bango, Bank of America, Barclays, Battery Ventures, Beijing Transportation Card Network, Bell Canada, Benchmark Capital, Bharti Telesoft, BICS, BillingScore, BilltoMobile, BlackBerry Partners Fund, BOKU, Bouygues Telecom, Brooks Brothers, BT, Buy.com, Cabela’s, Celcom, Cellfish, China Mobile, Citibank, Clear2Pay, Cleartrip, Commercial Bank of Qatar, Comviva, Concept Data Technologies, Costco, D2M, DAG Ventures, Danal, Daylight Partners, Deutsche Bank, DHASATRA, Digby, Disney, DPP, DSB, eBay, Electronic Arts, Inc., Ericsson, eServGlobal, Facebook, Fastweb, Fidelity, FINNAIR, FIVE, Flirtomatic, Fox Mobile Group, Gaia Online, Gala-Net, Gameloft, Gamepot, Gemalto, Globe Telecom, Golfsmith, Google, GoSpoken, Green Dot, Habbo, IBM, IMVU, Index Ventures, Intuit, Invodo, ITV, Jamster, Kenya Airways, Khosla Ventures, KPN, Lavalife, LINK Mobility, LSN Mobile, Lufthansa Systems, Luup, Marks & Spencer, Masary, Mastercard, Matrix Partners, Maxis Software, mBlox, Metro Company, MFIC, Micros, Microsoft, MIG, MINICK, mobilkom Austria, MobiVending, Mocapay, MoneyGram International, Monitise, Monotype Imaging, Mopet CZ, Movaya, Movia, Movincom, Movistar, Mozido, M-PESA, mSolutions, MTV, MX Telecom, NBAD, Nearbuy Systems, NetLook, Netsize, NetSpend, Neustar, New Look, Newbury Ventures, Nexon, ngpay, NHN, NIS, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nordstrom, Novus Ventures, NTT DoCoMo, NVP, O2, Obopay, OpenMarket, Oracle, Orange, Orange Austria, Orvis, Oxigen Services , Papaya Mobile, paybox Austria, Payforit, PayMate, PaymentOne, PayMobile, PayPal, PayPal Mobile, Perfect World, PETCO, Playphone, PlayStation, Polaris Ventures, Poste Mobile, PriceMinister S.A., PT Global Mediacom Tbk, raileasy, Rakuten, Reply, RIM, Rogers Communications, Royal Bank of Canada, S3 Ventures, Safaricom, Safarilink, Samsung, Sanoma Oyj, Santander, SAP Ventures, SBB Swiss Railways, ScaleVP, SendMe, SFR, Siberia Airlines, Sky, Skype, SmartPay, Sony, Sony Ericsson, SoundBite Communications, Sprint, Square, Sulake, Sybase 365, Symbian, TDC, Telefonica, TeleNav, Telus, The Home Depot, TIM, T-Mobile, Toys "R" Us, Trident Capital, Tropicana, TSYS, TBS, Twitter, tyntec, UGG Australia, Unwire, Vagverket, Valista, Venda, VeriFone, Verisign, Verizon, Vesta, Vimpelcom, Virgin Media, Virgin Mobile, Visa, Vodafone, Vodafone Italia, Walkers, Western Union, Where, Inc., Wind, Workers Equity Holding, Xtranormal, Yahoo!, Yoigo, Zong