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Mobile Payments for Digital & Physical Goods.

Mobile Payments for Digital & Physical Goods.

Opportunity Analysis 2012-2017

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 08/08/2012
Category: Mobile Commerce
No of Pages: 133
Coverage: Global ~ 8 Key Regions
 

Overview

  • Mobile Payment Trend Analysis
  • Billing Mechanism Assessment
  • Enhanced Forecast Suite

This report covers

Optimising the mobile strategy. This report delivers a thorough examination of the critical issues facing players across the mobile payments value chain, including:

  • The prospects for PSMS
  • Setting mobile at the heart of retailer strategy
  • Leveraging the operator billing relationship
  • The emergence of open models
  • The Tablet Effect

Expert analysis is backed up by interviews with and commentaries from leading players across the mobile payments industry, including Aepona, Bango, Netsize and Sybase 365. It also includes a series of strategic recommendations designed to enable service providers to maximise their opportunity in this fast evolving market.

Market forecasts. Juniper delivers the benchmark forecasts on the mobile payments industry. These revised and expanded five-year forecasts project key metrics such as:

• Number of mobile payments users
• Average number of transactions per annum
• Average transaction size
• Gross annual transaction value

Regional forecasts are provided for both the digital and physical goods sectors, while the forecasts for the latter sector are split by handset and tablet and set within the context of the wider eRetail market, allowing readers to understand the true scale of the impact of purchases via mobile and nomadic devices.

In all, the report features 29 forecast tables, backed up by an assessment of how trends within the mCommerce space – such as NFC deployments – will impact upon the growth of the remote payments market.

Readers can also benefit from the Mobile Payments for Digital & Physical Goods 2012-2017 Excel. This dataset offers additional layers of granularity within the physical goods space, providing country-level forecasts for Canada, the US, the UK and Japan and splitting handset forecasts into smartphones and mass market handsets; it includes 46 tables and more than 3,500 data points.

 


 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1. Remote Mobile Payments: The Evolving Marketplace

1.1 Introduction 16
1.2 Market Segmentation: Understanding the mCommerce Space 17
1.2.1 Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation 17
Figure 1.1: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation 17
1.2.2 Market Segment Detail: the Remote Payments Space 17
i. Remote Payments 17
ii. Proximity/POS Payments 18
1.3 The Remote Payments Market Today and Tomorrow 18
Figure 1.2: Mobile Remote Payment Trends, Drivers & Constraints 19
1.4 Trends in the Mobile Remote Payments Space 19
1.5 Driving Remote Payments in the Mobile Space 22
Figure 1.3: Remote Payments Drivers 22
1.5.1 Device Drivers 23
Figure 1.4: Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2012 23
Figure 1.5: Tablet Shipments (m), iPad/Other, 2009-2011 25
1.5.2 Brand/Retail Drivers 26
igure 1.6: B2C eCommerce Sales ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2001 & 2011 26
Table 1.1: B2C eCommerce Sales ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2001 & 2011 27
1.5.3 MNO Drivers 28
Figure 1.7: Operator-billed Monthly ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2005-2011 28
1.5.4 Secondary Drivers 30
1.6 Constraints on the Remote Payment Opportunity 30

2. The Challenge of mPayment Evolution: New Business Models, New Billing Mechanisms

2.1 Introduction 37
2.2 The mPayment Transaction Lifecycle 37
Figure 2.1: mCommerce Payment Process 38
2.3 Mobile Payment Mechanisms: Classification, Opportunities & Challenges 38
Table 2.1: Mobile Payment Classification 39
2.3.1 Premium Rate SMS (PSMS) 39
i. Advantages of PSMS Payment 40
ii. Disadvantages of/Constraints on PSMS Payment 40
2.3.2 Mobile Phone Bill – “D2B” (Direct to Bill) Payment 41
Table 2.2: Accredited Payment Intermediaries by UK Operator, mid-2012 42
i. Moving towards standardisation: the PayPal Carrier Payment Network 42
ii. Direct-to-mobile In-App Billing 43
2.3.3 Mobile Web & WAP Billing 43
i. Case Study: Payforit 44
2.3.4 SMS/Java/SIM Toolkit 45
2.3.5 Billing the Smartphone Application 45
2.3.6 Contactless Payment 46
2.3.7 In-Store 46
Figure 2.2: Mocapay Mobile Commerce Platform 46
2.4 Identifying and Maximising the Operator Opportunity 47
2.4.1 Potential Benefits of mPayments 47
Figure 2.3: PaaS Double-Sided Business Model 48
2.4.2 Maximising the Potential: Developing Operator Strategies for Remote Payments 49
2.5 Maximising the Retailer Opportunity in Mobile: mPayment and Beyond 50
2.5.1 Brand recognition and engagement: an app is not a strategy! 50
i. Case Study: FT 51
2.5.2 Beyond mPayments: Mobile At the Heart of Retailer Strategy 52
i. Case Study - Mobile at the Heart of Retail: eBay 53
Figure 2.4: eBay Mobile Transaction Volumes ($m), By Billing Mechanism, 2008-2012 53
ii. Case Study - Managing the Transition to Digital: Barnes & Noble 55
Figure 2.5: Barnes & Noble Stores, April 2006-April 2011 56
Table 2.3: Barnes & Noble Stores, April 2006-April 2011 57

 

2.6 “The Middle Men”: Opportunities in the Billing Value Chain 57

3. Market Forecasts: Total Remote Mobile Payment Market

3.1 Global User Forecasts 60
Figure 3.1: Remote Purchasers of Digital and Physical Goods (m), 2012-2017 61
Table 3.1: Remote Purchasers of Digital and Physical Goods (m), 2012-2017 61
3.2 Global and Regional Traffic Forecasts 61
Figure 3.2: Total Remote mPayment Transactions (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 62
Table 3.2: Total Remote mPayment Transactions (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 62
3.3 Global and Regional Transaction Size Forecasts 63
Figure 3.3: Average Remote mPayment Transaction Size ($) Split by 8 Key Regions,  2012-2017 63
Table 3.3: Average Remote mPayment Transaction Size ($) Split by 8 Key Regions,  2012-2017 64
3.4 Global and Regional Gross Merchandise Sales Forecasts 64
3.4.1 Gross Merchandise Sales by Region 64
Figure 3.4: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 64
Table 3.4: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 65
3.4.2 Gross Merchandise Sales Market Segmentation 65
Figure 3.5: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Digital vs. Physical Goods Comparison, 2012-2017 65
Table 3.5: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Digital vs. Physical Goods Comparison, 2012-2017 66

4. Market Forecasts: Remote Payments for Digital Goods

4.1 Methodology 68
4.1.1 Market Segmentation Approach 68
Figure 4.1: Market Forecast Methodology 69
4.2 Market Segment Trends 70
4.2.1 Music 70
4.2.2 Adult 71
4.2.3 TV 71
4.2.4 Social Media 72
4.2.5 Games 73
4.2.6 Infotainment 74
i. eBooks 74
4.2.7 Ticketing 75
Figure 4.2: Recent Trends by Mobile Ticketing Segment (All Technologies) 75
4.4 Global and Regional User Forecasts 76
Figure 4.3: Mobile Phone Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 76
Table 4.1: Mobile Phone Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 77
Figure 4.4: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 77
Table 4.2: Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 78
4.5 Global and Regional Traffic Forecasts 79
Figure 4.5: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment User  for Digital Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 79
Table 4.3: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment User  for Digital Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 79
Figure 4.6: Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) for Digital Goods  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 80
Table 4.4:  Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) for Digital Goods: Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 80
4.6 Global and Regional Transaction Value Forecasts 81
Figure 4.7: Average Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Size ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 81
Table 4.5: Average Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Size ($)      Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 81
Figure 4.8: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 82
Table 4.6: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 82
4.6.1 Understanding the Remote Digital Plateau: The NFC Migration 83
Figure 4.9: The NFC Effect: mTicket Transaction Migration ($m) from SMS/Barcode to Contactless, North America and Western Europe, 2012-2017 83
4.6.2 Average Annual Spend Via Mobile Devices  on Digital Content 84
Figure 4.10: Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Value ($) per mPayment User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 84
Table 4.7: Remote mPayment Digital Goods Transaction Value ($) per mPayment User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 84

5. Market Forecasts: Remote Payments for Physical Goods

5.1 Methodology 86
Figure 5.1: Methodology, Remote Mobile Payments for Physical Goods 87
5.2 Remote Payments for Physical Goods: Top Line Findings and Analysis 88
5.2.1 Total Mobile/Nomadic Transaction Values 88
Figure 5.2: Total Remote Transactions from Mobile/Nomadic Devices ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 88
Table 5.1: Total Remote Transactions from Mobile/Nomadic Devices ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 89
5.2.2 eCommerce is Migrating to a Mobile/Nomadic Environment 89
Figure 5.3: mCommerce vs “Fixed” eCommerce (%), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2017 89
Table 5.2: mCommerce vs “Fixed” eCommerce ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2017 90
5.2.3 The Rising Profile of the Tablet as an eCommerce/ mCommerce Vehicle 90
Figure 5.4: Total Remote Transactions from Mobile/Nomadic Devices ($m) Split by Handsets & Tablets, 2012-2017 90
Table 5.3: Total Remote Transactions from Mobile/Nomadic Devices ($m) Split by Handsets & Tablets, 2012-2017 91
5.3 Remote Payments for Physical Goods via Handsets 91
Figure 5.5: Mobile Handset Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2011-2017 91
Table 5.4: Mobile Handset Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 92
Figure 5.6: Mobile Handset Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2011-2017 92
Table 5.5: Mobile Handset Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 93
5.3.1 Global and Regional Transaction Forecasts via Handsets 93
Figure 5.7: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment Handset User  for Physical Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2011-2017 93
Table 5.6: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment Handset User  for Physical Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 94
Figure 5.8: Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) via Handsets for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 94
Table 5.7:  Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) via Handsets for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 95
5.3.2 Global and Regional Gross Merchandise Sales Forecasts via Handsets 95
Figure 5.9: Average Handset Remote mPayment Physical Goods Transaction Size ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 96
Table 5.8: Average Handset Remote mPayment Physical Goods Transaction Size ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 96
Figure 5.10: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value  for Physical Goods Purchased via Handsets ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 97
Table 5.9: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value  for Physical Goods Purchased via Handsets ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 97
Figure 5.11: Mobile Handset Users, Average Annual Spend on Remote Payments p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 98
Table 5.10: Mobile Handset Users, Average Annual Spend on Remote Payments p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 98
5.4 Remote Payments for Physical Goods via Tablets 99
Figure 5.12: Tablet Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 99
Table 5.11: Tablet Users (%) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 100
Figure 5.13: Tablet Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 100
Table 5.12: Tablet Users (m) Who Make Remote mPayments for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 101
5.4.1 Global and Regional Transaction Forecasts via Tablets 101
Figure 5.14: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment Tablet User  for Physical Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 101
Table 5.13: Average Number of Transactions Made per Remote mPayment Tablet User  for Physical Goods p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 102
Figure 5.15: Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) via Handsets for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 102
Table 5.14:  Total Number of Remote mPayment Transactions (m) via Tablets for Physical Goods Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 103
5.4.2 Global and Regional Gross Merchandise Sales via Tablets Forecasts 103
Figure 5.16: Average Handset Remote mPayment Physical Goods Transaction Size ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 103
Table 5.15: Average Tablet Remote mPayment Physical Goods Transaction Size ($)  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 104
Figure 5.17: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value  for Physical Goods Purchased via Tablets ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 104
Table 5.16: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value  for Physical Goods Purchased via Handsets ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 105
Figure 5.18: Tablet Users, Average Annual Spend on Remote Payments p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 105
Table 5.17: Mobile Handset Users, Average Annual Spend on Remote Payments p.a. ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2012-2017 106

6. Vendors, Strategies & Applications

6.1 Vendor Landscape 108
Figure 6.1: Mobile Payments Vendor Types 108
6.2 Vendor Analysis 109
6.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria 109
Table 6.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors 110
6.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation 110
6.2.3 Vendor Matrix Positioning - 2012 111
Figure 6.2: Global Mobile Payments Vendor Positioning Matrix 2012 112
6.2.4 Vendor Groupings 112
i. Summary 112
ii. On Track Vendors 112
iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations 113
iv. Vendors with Further Potential 113
6.3 Aepona 114
Figure 6.3: Aepona API Moentisation Concept Schematic 116
6.4 Bango 117
6.5 BOKU 118
6.6 eServGlobal 120
Figure 6.4: eServGlobal Product Overview 121
6.7 Ericsson IPX 122
6.8 mBlox 123
6.9 Netsize (Gemalto) 125
6.10 Onebip (Neomobile) 126
6.11 PayPal (eBay) 128
6.12 Sybase 365 130
6.13 tyntec 132

Companies Referenced

Profiled
Aepona; Bango; Boku; Ericsson; eServGlobal; mBlox; Netsize (Gemalto); OneBip (Neomobile); PayPal; Sybase 365; tyntec

Interviewed
Aepona; Bango; Fundamo; Gemalto; Neomobile; Onebip; Sybase 365

Mentioned
Amazon; American Express; Appia; Apple; Argos; Asda; Assanka; AT&T; Baidu; Barclaycard; BOKU; BrightStar; CCM Benchmark; Cellmania; Domino; eBay; Facebook; Fishlabs; Flipkart; FT.com; Google; HP; HTC; Interpersonal Group; Intex; KDDI; LG; Mastercard; Micros; Mocapay; mopay; MTN Uganda; Nokia; Ocado; Orange; PayMate; Paypal; Qualcomm; Rakuten; RIM; Samsung; SK Telecom; SmartPay; Snapdeal; Softbank Mobile; Sprint; Synovate; TDC; Telstra; T-Mobile; Tracfone; TSYS; Turkcell; txtnation; Verifone; Verizon; Visa; Vodafone

Case Studies
Barnes & Noble; eBay; Financial Times; Payforit

Extra Info

‡ 8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

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Please see: Mobile Payments for Digital & Physical Goods Opportunities & Forecast 2014-2018

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Key Questions

1. What is the transaction value of purchases made via mobile and nomadic devices today, and how much will that value increase by 2017?
2. What strategies should operators and retailers employ to maximise the monetisation opportunity offered by mobile payments?
3. What remote payment mechanisms are available to merchants, and what are their advantages and disadvantages?
4. Who are the leading providers of mobile payments platforms?
5. To what extent will eRetail migrate to mobile and nomadic devices?
6. What are the primary drivers behind mobile payment growth?
7. What do industry executives believe are the major inhibitors to consumer adoption?
8. Which regional markets will see the most significant growth in transaction volumes and values?
9. What impact will regulatory developments have upon the payments marketplace?
To what extent will the scale of physical goods transactions via tablets compare to those via handsets?

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Related Reports:

The Digital & Physical Goods M-Payment Briefing 2012-2017, Mobile Payments for Digital & Physical Goods 2012-2017 Excel

Related Categories: Mobile Commerce

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