Smartphone Evolution Strategies

Overview

- Extensive Forecasting Suite
- In depth Primary Research Program
- Industry Benchmark Analysis

This expansive third edition delivers the most detailed assessment of the prospects within the high end handset market to date.

Offering unrivalled industry intelligence, this new report categorises the smartphone market into three price bands - Premium, Standard and Economy - forecasting smartphone shipments for each price band, as well as by four types of Interface Configuration, and by Operating System.  Also projected is the wholesale value of smartphone shipments as well as total smartphone data usage, and 3D-enabled smartphones shipments, with all forecasts split by eight key regions up until 2016.

MNO smartphone subsidies and plans, and the impact on subscriber retention costs are explored in detail.  This unique investigation into this market also includes primary research and analysis on key technologies used in 118 smartphones recently launched by selected leading players, as well as in-depth recommendations for vendors, operators, application developers, investors.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Definitions within an Expanding Market

1.1 Introduction    20
1.2 Defining the Smartphone    21
i. The ‘Superphone’ Category: Good for Marketing, Bad for Analysis    21
1.3 Categorising Smartphones    22
1.3.1 Price Bands    22
i. Premium Smartphones ($400 and above)    23
Figure 1.1: Selected Premium Smartphones ($400 and above)    23
ii. Standard Smartphones ($151-$399)    23
Figure 1.2: Selected Standard Smartphones ($151-$399)    24
iii. Economy Handsets ($150-$26)    24
Figure 1.3: Sub-$150 ZTE Smartphones    24
iv. Ultra-Low-Cost Handsets ($25 and below)    25
1.3.2 Interface    25
Figure 1.4: Examples of Differing Smartphone Interfaces:  (left to right) Nokia C5-00, Nokia E5, Nokia E6, Nokia E7, Nokia N8    26
1.3.3 Operating Systems    26
Figure 1.5: A Visual Representation of the Smartphone Operating System Market    27

Routes to Market

2.1 Value Chain    28
Figure 2.1: Smartphone Value Chain    29
2.2 Smartphone Plans    29
2.2.1 Monthly Subscription    30
Figure 2.2: High, Average and Low Monthly Subscription Cost ($) for Smartphone Plans Split by Country & By Operator (Selected) June 2011    30
Figure 2.3: Proportion of Smartphone Plans (%)  Split by Country, by Operator (Selected) & by 7 Monthly Subscription Levels ($) June 2011    31
Table 2.1: Lowest Monthly Subscription Cost ($) of Smartphone Plans  Split by Country June 2011    31
2.2.2 Subsidised Handset Price    32
Figure 2.4: Average Subsidised Cost ($) of Smartphones Split by Country,  by Handset Price & by 7 Monthly Subscription Levels ($) June 2011    32
Figure 2.5: Proportion of Premium Smartphone Plans (%) Split by Country,  by Operator (Selected) & by 7 Subsidised Handset Cost Bands  June 2011    33
2.2.3 Operator Subsidies    33
Figure 2.6: RRP ($) of Selected Smartphones Available in the UK  Split by Average Operator Subsidy & Average Subscriber Contribution June 2011    34
Figure 2.7: RRP ($) of Selected Smartphones Available in the US  Split by Average Operator Subsidy & Average Subscriber Contribution June 2011    34
i. UK MNOs End Prepaid Subsidies    35
2.2.4 Subscriber Retention Costs    35
Figure 2.8: Orange France & T-Mobile Deutschland Subscriber Retention Costs 2006-2010    36

Technology Trends

3.1 Introduction    39
3.2 CPU    39
Figure 3.1: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a.  Split by CPU Clock Frequency Band 2009-2010    40
Table 3.1: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a.  Split by CPU Clock Frequency Band 2009-2010    40
Table 3.2: Smartphones with Dual-Core Processors Launched June 2011    41
i. Case Study: ARM    41
a. Corporate Profile    41
b. Strategic Partnerships & Key Clients    41
c. Products & Services    42
ii. Case Study: Qualcomm    42
a. Corporate Profile    42
b. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships    42
c. Products & Services    42
3.3 Memory Storage    43
Figure 3.2: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a.  Split by Maximum Memory Storage Capacity 2009-2010    43
Table 3.3: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a.  Split by Maximum Memory Storage Capacity 2009-2010    44
3.4 Interface    44
3.4.1 Interface Technology    44
Figure 3.3: Proportion (%) of Smartphone Models Split by Interface Launched p.a. 2009-2010    45
Table 3.4: Proportion (%) of Smartphones Split by Interface Launched p.a. 2009-2010    46
i. Other Interface Technologies    46
3.4.2 Display Size    46
Figure 3.4: Proportion of Touchscreen and Slide Dual-Interface Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Display Size 2009-2010    47
Table 3.5: Proportion of Touchscreen and Slide Dual-Interface Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Display Size 2009-2010    48
i. Case Study: Synaptics    49
a. Corporate Profile    49
b. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships    49
c. Products & Services    49
Table 3.6: Synaptics ClearPad Products for Smartphones    49
3.5 Camera    50
Figure 3.5: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a.  Split by Camera Megapixel Rating 2009-2010    50
Table 3.7: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a.  Split by Camera Megapixel Rating 2009-2010    50
3.6 On the Horizon…    51
i. NFC    51
a. Google    51
b. RIM    51
c. Samsung    52
d. Nokia    52
Other Vendors    52
ii. 3D    52
Figure 3.6: HTC EVO 3D    52
iii. Biometrics    53
Figure 3.7: Motorola Atrix Fingerprint Reader Screenshot    54

The Market for Smartphones

4.1 Methodology    56
Figure 4.1: Smartphone Forecast Methodology    57
4.2 Handset Installed Base & Shipments    57
Figure 4.2: Global Handset Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    57
Table 4.1: Global Handset Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    58
Figure 4.3: Global Handset Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    58
Table 4.2: Global Handset Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    59
4.3 Smartphone Shipments    60
4.3.1 Total Shipments    60
Table 4.3: Proportion of Global Smartphone Handset Shipments (%)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    60
Figure 4.4: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    60
Table 4.4: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    61
4.3.2 By Price Band    62
i.  Economy Handsets ($26-$150)    62
Table 4.5: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%)  with Retail Price Range of  $26-151 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    62
Figure 4.5: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $26-151  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    63
Table 4.6: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $26-151  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    63
ii. Standard Smartphones ($151-$399)    64
Table 4.7: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%)  with Retail Price Range of $151-399 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    64
Figure 4.6: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $151-399  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    64
Table 4.8: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $151-399  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    65
iii. Premium Smartphones ($400 and above)    65
Table 4.9: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%)  with Retail Price of $400 and above Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    66
Figure 4.7: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $400 and above  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    66
Table 4.10: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $400 and above  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    67
iv. Price Bands - Global Overview    67
Figure 4.8: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Price Band 2010-2016    67
Table 4.11: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Price Band 2010-2016    68
4.3.3 By Interface Technology    68
i.  Hard-Key-Only    68
Table 4.12: Proportion of Hard-Key-Only Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    68
Figure 4.9: Global Shipments of Hard-Key-Only Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    69
Table 4.13: Global Shipments of Hard-Key-Only Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    69
ii. Fixed Dual-Interface    70
Table 4.14: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%) Which Are Fixed Dual-Interface Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    70
Figure 4.10: Global Shipments of Fixed Dual-Interface Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    70
Table 4.15: Global Shipments of Fixed Dual-Interface Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    71
iii. Slide Dual-Interface    71
Table 4.16: Proportion of Fixed Dual-Interface Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    71
Figure 4.11: Global Shipments of Slide Dual-Interface Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    72
Table 4.17: Global Shipments of Slide Dual-Interface Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    72
iv. Touchscreen-Only    73
Table 4.18: Proportion of Touchscreen-Only Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    73
Figure 4.12: Global Shipments of Touchscreen-Only Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    73
Table 4.19: Global Shipments of Touchscreen-Only Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    74
v. Interface Technology Global Overview    74
Figure 4.13: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Interface Technology 2010-2016    75
Table 4.20: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Interface Technology 2010-2016    75
4.3.4 3D-Enabled Smartphones    75
Table 4.21: Proportion of Global Shipments of 3D-Enabled Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    76
Figure 4.14: Global Shipments of 3D-Enabled Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    76
Table 4.22: Global Shipments of 3D-Enabled Smartphones (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    77
4.3.5 By Operating System    77
Table 4.23: Global Market Share of Smartphone Operating Systems (%) 2010-2016    78
Figure 4.15: Global Shipments of Smartphones (m) Split by Operating System 2010-2016    78
Table 4.24: Global Shipments of Smartphones (m) Split by Operating System 2010-2016    79
4.4 Smartphone Market Value    79
Table 4.25: Smartphone Wholesale ASP ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    79
Figure 4.16: Smartphone Wholesale Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    80
Table 4.26: Smartphone Wholesale Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    80
4.5 Smartphone Data Usage    81
Table 4.27: Average Monthly Data Usage per Smartphone (MB)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    81
Figure 4.17: Total Annual Smartphone Data Usage (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    81
Table 4.28: Total Annual Smartphone Data Usage (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016    82

Recommendations

Figure 5.1: Apple Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Device 2002 to 2010    84
Figure 5.2: Motorola ATRIX with (left) and without (right) ‘Lapdock’    85
Figure 5.3: Sony Ericsson’s Xperia Play    85
Figure 5.4: Asus Padfone – A Smartphone/Tablet Hybrid    86
Figure 5.5: Apple’s iPhone 4    87
Figure 5.6: Total Number of 3G/4G Mobile Subscribers (m) p.a.  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    88
Table 5.1: Total Number of 3G/4G Mobile Subscribers (m) p.a.  Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016    88
Figure 5.7: What is the perfect smartphone display size for you?    90

Selected Vendor Profiles

Figure 6.1: Smartphone Vendor Market Share (%) 2009    93
Figure 6.2: Smartphone Vendor Market Share (%), 2010    94
6.2 Apple    94
Figure 6.3: Apple Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010  (Financial Year Ending 25th September)    95
Table 6.1: Apple Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010  (Financial Year Ending 25th September)    95
Figure 6.4: Apple’s Quarterly iPhone Shipments (m) vs. iPhone Wholesale ASP ($)  Q3 2007-Q2 2011 (Quarter Ending 26th March)    96
Table 6.2: Apple’s Quarterly iPhone Shipments (m) & iPhone Wholesale ASP ($)  Q3 2007-Q2 2011 (Quarter Ending 26th March)    96
Table 6.3: Key Technical Specifications of iPhone Models    97
iPhone    97
iOS    97
App Store    98
iTunes    98
iCloud    98
6.3 HTC    99
Figure 6.5: HTC’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Region 2007-2010  (Financial Year Ending 31st December)    99
Table 6.4: HTC’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Region 2007-2010  (Financial Year Ending 31st December)    99
Figure 6.6: HTC’s Quarterly Device Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2008-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)    100
Table 6.5: HTC’s Quarterly Device Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2008-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)    101
6.4 Motorola Mobility    102
Figure 6.7: Motorola Mobility’s Annual Device Revenue ($m) vs. Annual Shipments (m)  by Device 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)    102
Table 6.6: Motorola Mobility’s Annual Shipments (m) by Device Annual ASP ($) & Annual Device Revenue ($m) 2006-2010  (Financial Year Ending 31st December)    102
Figure 6.8: Motorola Mobility’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q3 2009-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)    103
Table 6.7: Motorola Mobility’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q3 2009-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)    103
Figure 6.9: Motorola Mobility Device Revenue Mix (%) Split by Region  Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March) vs. Number of Motorola Mobility Smartphone Models Available in Key Markets within those Regions May 2011    104
6.5 Nokia    105
Figure 6.10: Nokia’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2006-2010    105
Table 6.8: Nokia’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2006-2010    106
Figure 6.11: Nokia’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($)  Q1 2006-Q1 2011 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)    107
Table 6.9: Nokia’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($)  Q1 2006-Q1 2011 (Financial Year Ending 31st December 2010)    107
Figure 6.12: Nokia’s Mobile Device Shipments (%) Split by Region Q1 2011    108
Handsets    109
Symbian    109
Ovi Store    109
6.6 RIM    110
Figure 6.13: RIM’s Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source  (Financial Year Ending 26th February 2011)    110
Table 6.10: RIM’s Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2011  (Financial Year Ending 26th February)    110
Figure 6.14: RIM’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($)  Q1 2007-Q1 2011 (Financial Year Ending 26th February)    111
Table 6.11: RIM’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($)  Q1 2007-Q1 2011 (Financial Year Ending 26th February)    112
Figure 6.15: RIM’s Revenue Mix (%) by Market FY2011  (Financial Year Ending 26th February)    112
Smartphones    113
Blackberry OS    113
Blackberry App World    113
Blackberry Messenger    114
Figure 6.16: RIM’s Blackberry Ranges:  (left to right) Pearl 3G, Curve 3G, Bold, Torch, Storm2    114
6.7 Samsung    114
Figure 6.17: Samsung’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010  (Financial Year Ending 31st December)    114
Table 6.12: Samsung’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010  (Financial Year Ending 31st December)    115
Figure 6.18: Samsung’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q1 2009-Q1 2011  (Quarter Ending 31st March)    115
Table 6.13: Samsung’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q1 2009-Q1 2011  (Quarter Ending 31st March)    116
Smartphones    116
Bada (OS) and Samsung Apps (App Store)    117
Figure 6.19: Selected Samsung Smartphones: (left to right) Omnia 7, Wave II, Galaxy S II    117

Companies Referenced

Accenture, Acer, Apple, ARM, ASUS, AT&T, Dell, Google, HP, HTC, Huawei, LG, Meizu, Microsoft, Motorola Mobility, Nokia, O2, Orange, Palm, Qualcomm, RIM, Samsung, SingTel, Sony Ericsson, Sony, Sprint, STARHUB, Synaptics, T-Mobile, Toshiba, Verizon Wireless, Vodafone, ZTE

Extra Info

‡ 8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.