Online Payment Fraud: Market Forecasts, Emerging Threats & Segment Analysis 2023-2028

• Market Dynamics: A strategic analysis of the major drivers, challenges, and innovations shaping the adoption and development of fraud detection and prevention solutions:
  • COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the online payment fraud market and the ongoing influence from it.
  • Future strategic direction and market outlook for fraud detection and prevention vendors.
  • Key drivers for fraud detection and prevention vendors, including an increase in data provided from merchants, the implementation of AI and ML and their impact on fraud detection and prevention, and the growing needs of SMEs to access sophisticated fraud prevention systems.  
• Segment Analysis: A segment analysis of banking and money transfer, remote physical and digital goods and airlines, looking into key challenges, key trends and future outlook. This gives readers insight into the markets with a growing need for improvement within fraud detection and prevention.
• Benchmark Industry Forecasts: Includes forecasts for the total fraudulent transaction value for airline eTicketing, remote digital goods, remote physical goods, money transfer and digital banking, as well as the total spend on fraud detection and prevention. This data is split by online and mobile transactions, and for our 8 key forecast regions and 60 countries:
  • North America:
    • Canada, US.
  • Latin America:
    • Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
  • West Europe:
    • Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
  • Central & East Europe:
    • Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine.
  • Far East & China:
    • China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea.
  • Indian Subcontinent:
    • Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan.
  • Rest of Asia Pacific:
    • Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
  • Africa & Middle East:
    • Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates.
• Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment for 21 online payment fraud detection and prevention vendors:
  • Accertify
  • ACI Worldwide
  • Experian
  • Featurespace
  • Feedzai
  • FICO
  • Fiserv
  • Fraudio
  • GBG
  • Kount
  • LexisNexis
  • Microsoft
  • NuData Security
  • Riskified
  • RSA Security
  • SAS
  • Signifyd
  • TransUnion
  • Vesta
  • Visa
  • Worldpay

1. What will the total online payment fraud value be in 2028?
2. What impact will AI and machine learning have on fraud detection and prevention?
3. Who are the leading vendors in the fraud detection and prevention market?
4. What impact do emerging payments have on online fraud?
5. What are the next steps for vendors in fraud detection and prevention?

Interviewed: Feedzai, Fraudio, Kount, LexisNexis, Vesta, Visa.
 
Included in Juniper Research Competitor Leaderboard: Accertify, ACI Worldwide, Experian, Featurespace, Feedzai, FICO, Fiserv, Fraudio, GBG, Kount, LexisNexis Risk Solutions, Microsoft, NuData Security, Riskified, RSA Security, SAS, Signifyd, TransUnion, Vesta, Visa, Worldpay.
 
Mentioned: 4Stop, Accelitas, ACI Worldwide, Acuris, Adobe, AFS (Advanced Financial Solutions), Allianz, ALTO, American Express, Aspenware, AT&T, AU10TIX, Authorize.net, AWS, Axerve, Bailhang Credit, Bank of Singapore, Barclaycard Payments, BAV (Bank Account Validation), BehavioSec, BigCommerce, Black Opal, Blibli, BlueSnap, BNP Paribas, Boemska, Braintree, Bukalapak, Cashplus, Cayan, Centro, Chargebacks911, checkout.com, CISCO, Citrix, Cognizant, Confused.com, ConnexPay, CredoLab, Crypto.com, Cybersource, Dell, Deloitte, Delta Air Lines, Dentsu, Deutsche Bank, Diebold Nixdorf, eBay, Emailage, Entersekt, Entrée Capital, Entrust Datacard, Equifax, Esure, Etisalat, Eway, Fidelity Management & Research Company, Finxact, Fischer, GDS Link, General Atlantic, GeoComply, Global Payments, HSBC, IBM, ID R&D, IDology, Innovalor, Invation, Jack Henry & Associates, Inc, JPMorgan Chase, Kaidee, Kenbi, KPMG, Landsbankinn, Laurentian Bank, Lego, LeoVegas, Mastercard, Midigator, MySQL, NatWest, NewSuite, NorthRow, NortonLife Lock, NTT Data, Oracle, OTP Bank, P97, PassFort, Payoneer, Philippines Security Bank Corporation, Phonelink, PingIdentity, Pitango Venture Capital, Plaid, Playtech, Praxis, Primer, Provenir, PWC, Qumra Capital, Railsr, RedAbierta, Regily, RocketFuel Blockchain, Inc, Sage, Salesforce Commerce Cloud, Santander Bank, SAP, Sapiens, Scudetto, Sekura, SEON, Shopify, Shyft Network, Soldo, SPhonic, SumUp, Symphony Technology Group, Synectics Solutions, Temenos, Teradata, Thales, The Access Group, Threat Fabric, TruNarrative, Trunarrative, TSYS, UK Finance, Visualsoft, Viva Wallet, Vtex, WiPay, Worldline, Zilch.

Juniper Research’s Online Payment Fraud forecast suite includes splits for:

• Airline eTicket
• Remote Physical Goods
• Remote Digital Goods
• Money Transfer
• Banking

Metrics include the total card not present fraud transaction value split by online and mobile, total spend on fraud detection and prevention, fraud rate by value.

Geographical splits: 60 countries
Number of tables: Over 67 tables
Number of datapoints: Over 30,000 datapoints

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• Merchant losses from online payment fraud will exceed $362 billion globally between 2023 to 2028, with losses of $91 billion alone in 2028. A rise in eCommerce transactions in emerging markets is driving this growth. Merchants there are facing new threats, such as an increased use of AI for attacks. Online payment fraud is where cybercriminals conduct false or illegal transactions online, using a number of different fraud strategies, such as phishing, business email compromise or account takeover.
• Underpinned by a robust scoring methodology, the new Competitor Leaderboard ranked the top 21 fraud detection and prevention vendors, using criteria such as the relative size of their customer base, completeness of their solutions and their future business prospects.
• The top 5 vendors for 2023:
  • LexisNexis Risk Solutions
  • Experian
  • ACI Worldwide
  • Visa
  • FICO
• Leading players scored well based on the breadth of their anti-fraud orchestration capabilities, as well as their use of AI for analysing trends in fraudster behaviour. In order to stay ahead of the competition, vendors must utilise data collected throughout the whole eCommerce process to further develop their fraud detection and prevention solutions through training and advancing AI models.
• eCommerce payment vendors need to offer dashboards and data visualisations to their smaller SME customers. At present, SMEs lack access to good customer analytics, and this data could highlight consumer purchasing behaviours, as well as providing insights into payment method popularity and fraud. By offering additional services to SMEs, eCommerce payment vendors can differentiate their portfolios in an increasingly competitive and commoditised market.