Instant Payments: Market Forecasts, B2B & Consumer Payments Analysis 2021-2026

• Market Dynamics: Detailed analysis of the current state of evolution of the instant payments market; analysing scheme roll-outs, challenges to adoption and the future outlook for the sector.
• Value Chain Analysis: Extensive exploration of the value chain involved in real-time payments; examining each type of vendor and what our outlook is for them, providing a key resource to aid understanding of the wider market.
• Vendor Analysis: Case studies and examination of strategies in place for 8 leading vendors:
  • ACI Worldwide
  • Finastra
  • Fiserv
  • Mastercard
  • Montran Corporation
  • Nets
  • SWIFT
  • TietoEVRY
• Benchmark Industry Forecasts: Forecasts for instant payments scheme usage up to 2026, including splits by B2B versus consumer and domestic versus cross-border, as well as splits by our 8 key regions and the 25 countries listed below:
  • Argentina
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • China
  • Colombia
  • Denmark
  • France
  • Germany
  • India
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Mexico
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Singapore
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • UK
  • US

1. What regions are leading the adoption of instant payment schemes?
2. How do the prospects for instant payments in the domestic and cross-border arenas differ?
3. What is the anticipated market size for real-time payments in 2026?
4. Which vendors will drive progress in the market and what will their strategies be?
5. What opportunities does the rise of instant payments present?

Case Studied: CBB (Central Bank of Brazil)
 
 
Mentioned: ACI Worldwide, Amazon, Ant Financial, Apple, Automatia, Banco Santander, Bank of America, Bank of China, Barclays, BB&T, BBVA, BNP Paribas, BNY Mellon, BNY Mellon, BoE (Bank of England), Capital One, CBB (Central Bank of Brazil), CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), Citi, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, DNB, EBA Clearing, ECB’s (European Central Bank), Europay, European Payments Council, Fabrick, Facebook, FedNow, Finastra, Fiserv, Flik, Google, Grab, HSBC, ICC (Interbank Card Centre), ING, Java, JPMorgan Chase, Kenya Bankers Association, KIR (Krajowa Izba Rozliczeniowa SA), Maldives Monetary Authority, MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore), Mastercard, MobilePay, Montran Corporation, NASDAQ, Nets, Nexi, Pay.UK, Payments Canada, PayPal, PNC Bank, PSP (Polski Standard Płatności- Polish Payment Standards), RBI (Reserve Bank of India), RippleNet, RTR (Real-time Rail), Samsung, SIC (Swiss Interbank Clearing), Société Générale, Swish, TCH (The Clearing House), Tencent, TietoEVRY, US Bank, US Federal Reserve, Venmo, Vipps, Visa, Vista Equity Partners, WeChat, Wells Fargo, WhatsApp, Zelle.
 

Juniper Research’s forecast suite includes:

• Forecasts for the use of instant payments, including transaction volumes and values, provided across the following segments:
  • B2B Cross-border
  • B2B Domestic
  • Consumer Cross-border
  • Consumer Domestic
• Interactive Scenario Tool allowing users to manipulate Juniper Research’s data for 8 different metrics.
• Access to the full set of forecast data of 43 tables and more than 9,600 datapoints.

Geographical splits: 25 countries

Harvest: Our online data platform, harvest, contains the very latest market data and is updated throughout the year. This is a fully featured platform enabling clients to better understand key data trends and manipulate charts and tables, overlaying different forecasts within the one chart - using the comparison tool. Empower your business with our market intelligence centre, and get alerted whenever your data is updated.

Interactive Excels (IFxl): Our IFxl tool enables clients to manipulate both forecast data and charts, within an Excel environment, to test their own assumptions using the Interactive Scenario Tool and compare selected markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase a clients’ ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

The transaction value of instant payments will exceed $27.7 trillion in 2026, from just $4.8 trillion in 2021. This extraordinary growth of over 470% will be driven by improved cost and transparency for instant payment schemes versus legacy payment schemes, such as ACH or CHAPS.

• Instant payment schemes will increasingly disrupt both domestic and cross-border channels by offering payments that are faster to process, cheaper to both facilitate and initiate, and easier to track and reconcile. However, instant payments will take time to proliferate, given the fragmented nature of payments regulation within key markets like the US, and the uneven roles regulators have played internationally in payments innovation.
• Over 70% of the overall transaction value of instant payments will be domestic in 2026, with instant payments schemes lacking cross-border interoperability.
• Joining instant domestic schemes together to power cross-border payments is challenging, despite ISO 20022 adoption. CDBCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) could have a significant role to play in harmonising cross-border payments due to their clean slate nature, meaning they can be designed with cross-border use cases in mind from the start. However, this will require prioritisation by regulators.