Digital Commerce: 2023-2028

• Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: Juniper Research’s market takeaways and recommendations for key stakeholders, including eCommerce merchants, payment service providers and banks.
• Segment Analysis: Analysis of important segments within the digital commerce space, including:
  • Digital Banking
  • eCommerce
  • Online & Mobile Ticketing
  • Money Transfers
  • Proximity Payments (including QR Code Payments and Contactless Payments)
• Market Drivers and Constraints: Analysis of the key drivers of growth and growth constraints for each market segment within the digital commerce landscape, such as social commerce, the ways the customer journey is being improved, more personalised experiences, and how eCommerce trends are impacting the way services are offered and consumed. This then provides a detailed outlook for the market’s future growth and direction of travel.
• Benchmark Industry Forecasts: A suite of comprehensive data and forecasts highlighting the total transaction volume, transaction value and number of digital users across digital banking, eCommerce, digital ticketing, money transfers and proximity payments, split by the total digital channels, and the online and mobile channels. Comprehensive market forecasts are provided for the following key regions and countries:
  • North America:
    • Canada, US
  • Latin America:
    • Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay
  • West Europe:
    • Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
  • Central & East Europe:
    • Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine
  • Far East & China:
    • China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea
  • Indian Subcontinent:
    • Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan
  • Rest of Asia Pacific:
    • Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam
  • Africa & Middle East
    • Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates

1. What is the anticipated market size for digital commerce over the next 5 years?
2. What are the key trends in the digital commerce landscape?
3. How will the user experience develop over the next 5 years?
4. Which market segments will drive growth for digital commerce?
5. How will the increasing use of digital payment methods influence the digital commerce market?

Mentioned: Alibaba, AliPay, Amazon, American Airlines, Apple, Branch, British Airways, Cash App, Denso Wave, EasyJet, Google, Instagram, Klarna, Mastercard, Meta, M-Shwari, PayPal, Paytm, PhonePe, Pix, Tala, Tarabut Gateway, Venmo, Visa, WeChat, World Bank, X, Zettle.
 

 

Juniper Research’s Digital Commerce forecast suite includes:  

Comprehensive 5-year forecasts are provided in the Digital Commerce Market research suite; enabling readers with a comprehensive understanding of the growth in this emerging market. The forecast suite boasts a wide range of metrics, including the following:

• Total transaction volume of digital commerce
• Total transaction value of digital commerce
• Total users of digital commerce

These numbers are split by both mobile and online usage, as well as by the following segment splits:

• Digital Banking
• eCommerce (inclusive of digital goods and physical goods)
• Online & Mobile Ticketing
• Money Transfers (inclusive of both digital cross-border remittances and P2P transfers)
• Proximity payments (including QR code payments and NFC payments)
• Geographical splits: 60 countries

Number of tables: 65 tables
Number of datapoints: Over 29,500 datapoints

harvest: Our online data platform, harvest, contains the very latest market data and is updated throughout the year. This is a fully featured platform; enabling clients to better understand key data trends and manipulate charts and tables; overlaying different forecasts within the one chart - using the comparison tool. Empower your business with our market intelligence centre, and receive alerts whenever your data is updated.

Interactive Excels (IFxl): Our IFxl tool enables clients to manipulate both forecast data and charts, within an Excel environment, to test their own assumptions using the interactive scenario tool and compare selected markets side by side in customised charts and tables. IFxls greatly increase a client’s ability to both understand a particular market and to integrate their own views into the model.

By 2024, digital commerce transaction volumes will reach 1.08 trillion globally; rising from 966 billion this year – a very strong 12% growth in a single year.

The strongest growth will be in three markets, driving overall digital commerce adoption. These markets are:
a) NFC Payments: 30%
b) Digital Ticketing: 19%
c) Physical Goods: 12%

NFC payments are surging, boosted by increasing contactless acceptance, particularly within transit. The move to open-loop payment systems within ticketing has had an important network effect; boosting awareness of contactless payments among potential users and increasing usage within markets that previously lagged behind, such as the US and Germany.

The shift towards open-loop payments within ticketing has now begun to reach more remote areas, becoming the default payment method in many markets. We anticipate this momentum to boost contactless payments overall, and also increase open-loop adoption in other areas, such as for EV charging.

With the rising cost of living reducing disposable income, digital commerce vendors need to differentiate themselves to maintain growth. As such, vendors in highly competitive markets, such as money transfer, must focus on reducing the cost of payments as the key differentiator in the current climate.