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Ultrabooks & Mobile Computing

Ultrabooks & Mobile Computing

Strategies & Forecasts 2012-2016

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 24/01/2012
Category: Handsets & Devices
No of Pages: 118
Coverage: Global - 8 Key Regions
 

Overview

•       Ultrabook & Mobile Computing Forecasts

•       Interviews with 8 Leading Industry Players

•       Ultrabook Technology Insights

Intel's new Ultrabook category is set to reposition and re-energise the notebook market more firmly within the mobile computing space. This comprehensive study tackles the challenges and opportunities for Ultrabooks within the ecosystem for component vendors, ODMs, OEMs, OS developers and service providers.

The Report Covers:

Market Forecasts for Ultrabooks and Mobile Computing. This detailed breakdown of the mobile computing form-factors (including netbooks, tablets, traditional notebooks and Ultrabooks) provides readers with unsurpassed understanding of the potential market size, structure and value of these established and emerging devices.

Technology Insights identify the challenges within the value chain. Juniper provides a thorough assessment of technologies across the value chain which will be essential towards driving widespread Ultrabook adoption. Through market intelligence and case studies, this study guides readers through the plethora of available component enhancements towards creating high quality and cost effective products in a fiercely competitive market.

Unique Product Strategy and Positioning. Substantial discussion of the ways in which Ultrabook OEMs can take advantage of Intel's Ultrabook brand while improving profit margins and differentiating themselves from competing products.

Key Features of the Report Include:

Extensive forecast suite - including 22 charts and 27 tables, covering a range of form-factors within mobile computing and market dynamics within Ultrabooks, giving readers unparalleled insight into the shipment volumes, wholesale ASP and market value of both Ultrabooks and mobile computing as a whole. 

Exclusive market intelligence - garnered through interviews with executives from a range of leading players across the entire value chain discussing market trends and product strategy.

  • Top three worldwide notebook OEMS by shipment volumes - HP, Lenovo and Dell - as well as rising star, Samsung.
  • Intel - world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, owner of the Ultrabook trademark and de facto leader of this new category
  • Leading specialist semiconductor manufacturers: Micron (including DRAM/NAND), NVIDIA (Graphics and SoCs) and Texas Instruments (SoCs)


In-Depth Vendor Profiles - including extensive analysis of selected leading OEMs.

  • Quarterly notebook and mobile computing market share
  • Annual revenues
  • Quarterly shipments of mobile computing form-factors
  • Quarterly wholesale ASP of mobile computing form-factors
  • Strategic assessment
  • Product analysis

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
The Mobile Computing Landscape

1.1 A Strategic Inflection Point.......... 20
1.1 Defintions in an Expanding Market.......... 21
1.2.1 Notebooks.......... 21
i. Juniper's Definition.......... 21
Figure 1.1: Examples of Notebooks & Other Form-Factors.......... 21
ii. Challenges & Opportunities.......... 22
Figure 1.2: Worldwide PC Shipments (m) Split by Form Factor (Desktop, Notebook, & Tablet) 2006-2011.......... 22
Table 1.1: Worldwide PC Shipments (m) Split by Form Factor (Desktop, Notebook, & Tablet) 2006-2011.......... 22
Figure 1.3: Worldwide Notebook Wholesale ASP ($) Split by OEM (Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo) 2006-2010.......... 23
Table 1.2: Worldwide Notebook Wholesale ASP ($) Split by OEM (Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo) 2006-2010.......... 23
1.2.2 Ultrabooks.......... 24
i. Intel's Ultrabook.......... 24
Figure 1.4: Ultrabook Features Adopted from Tablets.......... 24
Table 1.3: Intel's Ultrabook Specifications.......... 25
ii. Challenges & Opportunities.......... 26
a. Apple's Macbook Air.......... 26
Figure 1.5: Apple Macbook Wholesale ASP($) vs Leading Five Vendors Average Wholesale ASP ($) & Macbook Market Share (%) 2006-2010.......... 26
Table 1.4: Apple Macbook Wholesale ASP($) vs Leading Five Vendors Average Wholesale ASP ($) & Macbook Market Share (%) 2006-2010.......... 27
1.2.3 Netbooks.......... 27
i. Juniper's Definition.......... 27
ii. Challenges & Opportunities.......... 27
Figure 1.6: Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Device (Netbooks, Other Notebooks & Tablets) & Proportion of Notebooks which are Netbooks (%) 2006-2011.......... 28
Table 1.5: Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Device (Netbooks, Other Notebooks & Tablets) & Proportion of Notebooks which are Netbooks (%) 2006-2011.......... 28
1.2.4 Tablets.......... 29
i. Juniper's Definition.......... 29
Figure 1.7: Devices Excluded from Tablet Definition.......... 30
ii. Challenges & Opportunities.......... 30
Figure 1.8: Key Adopted Functionalities of the Tablet.......... 31

Ultrabook Technologies

2.1 Re-Energising the Value Chain.......... 33
Figure 2.1: Ultrabook Value Chain.......... 33
2.2 CPU.......... 34
2.2.1 Case Study: Intel.......... 34
Figure 2.2: Intel Net Revenue ($m) FY 2006 to FY 2010.......... 34
Table 2.1: Intel Net Revenue ($m) FY 2006 to FY 2010.......... 35
a. Sandy Bridge.......... 36
b. Ivy Bridge.......... 37
c. Haswell.......... 37
d. Future developments.......... 37
2.2.2 Mobile Computing Convergence: Vendor Strategy.......... 37
Figure 2.3: Computing Strategy Movement of Selected Semiconductor & OS Vendors.......... 38
2.3 Graphics.......... 39
2.3.1 Case Study: NVIDIA.......... 39
Figure 2.4: NVIDIA Annual Revenue ($m) FY 2006 to FY 2010.......... 40
Table 2.2: NVIDIA Annual Revenue ($m) FY 2006 to FY 2010.......... 40
2.4 DRAM.......... 42
2.5 Storage.......... 42
2.5.1 SSD.......... 42
2.5.2 Hybrid Solutions.......... 43
2.5.3 Cloud Computing.......... 44
2.5.4 Case Study: Micron.......... 45
Figure 2.5: Micron Total Net Sales ($m) Split by Source (DRAM, NAND & Other) FY-2007 to FY-2011.......... 46
Table 2.3: Micron Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 46
2.6 Optical Drives.......... 47
Figure 2.6: Macbook Pro - Optical Drive & Dimensions.......... 48
2.7 Touch Input.......... 49
Figure 2.7: Lenovo's IdeaPad Yoga Ultrabook.......... 49
Table 2.4: Challenges to Touchscreen Ultrabook Adoption.......... 50
2.8 Operating Systems.......... 51
2.8.1 Windows.......... 51
Figure 2.8: Windows 8 - Metro Apps.......... 52
2.8.2 Mac OS.......... 52
2.8.3 Chrome.......... 53
2.9 Security.......... 54
2.10 Mobile Technologies.......... 54
i. Mobile Broadband.......... 54
ii. NFC.......... 55
iii. Accelerometers.......... 55
iv. Voice Recognition.......... 55

Ultrabook Product & Market Strategies

3.1 Introduction.......... 56
3.2 Product Strategies.......... 56
3.2.1 Case Study: Apple's Macbook.......... 56
Figure 3.1: Apple Macbook Family - Air and Pro.......... 56
Table 3.1: Apple Macbook Air and Macbook Pro Tech Specs Comparison, January 2012.......... 57
Figure 3.2: Macbook Air Pricing Trend & Ultrabook Opportunity.......... 58
3.2.2 Balancing the Ultrabook.......... 58
Figure 3.3: Balancing the Ultrabook.......... 59
3.4 Market Strategies.......... 61
3.4.1 End-User.......... 61
3.4.1 Regional.......... 61
i. Mature Markets.......... 61
Figure 3.4: Macbook Air Price in Selected Mature Markets.......... 62
iv. Emerging Markets.......... 63

Mobile Computing Forecasts

4.1 Forecast Methodology.......... 64
Figure 4.1: Juniper Research Mobile Computing Forecast Methodology.......... 64
4.2 Notebook Forecasts.......... 65
4.2.1 All Notebooks.......... 65
Figure 4.2: Worldwide Annual Notebook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 65
Table 4.1: Worldwide Annual Notebook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 66
Figure 4.3: Worldwide Annual Notebook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 67
Table 4.2: Worldwide Annual Notebook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 67
i. Ultrabook.......... 67
a. Total Shipments & Installed Base.......... 67
Table 4.3: Proportion of Worldwide Annual Notebok Shipments (%) which are Ultrabooks Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 68
Figure 4.4: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 68
Table 4.4: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 69
Figure 4.5: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 69
Table 4.5: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 70
b. Shipments by Storage Technology.......... 70
Table 4.6: Proportion of Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments (%) with Hybrid (HSD/SDD) Storage Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 71
Figure 4.6: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments with Hybrid (HDD/SSD) Storage (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 71
Table 4.7: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments with Hybrid (HDD/SSD) Storage (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 72
Figure 4.7: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments with Pure-SSD Storage (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 72
Table 4.8: Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments with Pure-SSD Storage (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 72
c. Shipments by End-User.......... 73
Table 4.9: Proportion of Worldwide Annual Ultrabook Shipments (%) where End-User is Enterprise Market Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 73
Figure 4.8: Worldwide Annual Enterprise Ultrabook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 73
Table 4.10: Worldwide Annual Enterprise Ultrabook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 74
Figure 4.9: Worldwide Annual Consumer Ultrabook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 74
Table 4.11: Worldwide Annual Consumer Ultrabook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 75
d. Market Value.......... 75
Figure 4.10: Average Wholesale ASP of Ultrabooks ($) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 75
Table 4.12: Average Wholesale ASP of Ultrabooks ($) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 76
Figure 4.11: Wholesale Market Value of Ultrabooks ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 77
Table 4.13: Wholesale Market Value of Ultrabooks ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 77
ii. Traditional Notebook.......... 77
a. Total Shipments & Installed Base.......... 77
Figure 4.12: Worldwide Annual Traditional Notebook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 78
Table 4.14: Worldwide Annual Traditional Notebook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 78
Figure 4.13: Worldwide Annual Traditional Notebook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 79
Table 4.15: Worldwide Annual Traditional Notebook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 79
b. Market Value.......... 79
Figure 4.14: Average Wholesale ASP of Traditional Notebooks ($) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 79
Table 4.16: Average Wholesale ASP of Traditional Notebooks ($) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 80
Figure 4.15: Wholesale Market Value of Traditional Notebooks ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 80
Table 4.17: Wholesale Market Value of Traditional Notebooks ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 81
iii. Ultrabooks versus Traditional Notebooks.......... 81
a. Shipments.......... 81
Figure 4.16: Worldwide Annual Shipments of Notebooks (m) Split by Form-Factor (Traditional Notebooks & Ultrabooks) 2011-2016.......... 82
Table 4.18: Worldwide Annual Shipments of Notebooks (m) Split by Form-Factor (Traditional Notebooks & Ultrabooks) 2011-2016.......... 82
b. Market Values.......... 82
Figure 4.17: Wholesale Market Value of Notebooks ($m) Split by Form-Factor (Traditional Notebooks & Ultrabooks) 2011-2016.......... 82
Table 4.19: Wholesale Market Value of Notebooks ($m) Split by Form-Factor (Traditional Notebooks & Ultrabooks) 2011-2016.......... 83
iv. Netbooks.......... 83
Table 4.20: Proportion of Worldwide Annual Notebook Shipments (%) which are Netbooks Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 83
Figure 4.18: Worldwide Annual Netbook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 84
Table 4.21: Worldwide Annual Netbook Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 84
Figure 4.19: Worldwide Annual Netbook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 85
Table 4.22: Worldwide Annual Netbook Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 85
4.2.2 Tablet Forecasts.......... 85
Figure 4.20: Worldwide Annual Tablet Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 86
Table 4.23: Worldwide Annual Tablet Shipments (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 86
Figure 4.21: Worldwide Annual Tablets Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 87
Table 4.24: Worldwide Annual Tablets Installed Base (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 87
4.2.2 Mobile Computing Forecasts.......... 88
Figure 4.22: Worldwide Annual Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Netbook, Tablet, Traditional Notebook & Ultrabook) 2011 to 2016.......... 88
Table 4.25: Worldwide Annual Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Netbook, Tablet, Traditional Notebook & Ultrabook) 2011 to 2016.......... 89

Mobile Computing OEMs

5.1 Introduction.......... 90
Figure 5.1: Worldwide Notebook Market Share (%) Split by OEM (Acer, Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP & Lenovo) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 90
Table 5.1: Worldwide Notebook Market Share (%) Split by OEM (Acer, Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo & Other) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 91
Figure 5.2: Worldwide Mobile Computing Market Share (%) Split by OEM (Acer, Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP & Lenovo) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 91
Table 5.2: Worldwide Mobile Computing Market Share (%)Split by OEM (Acer, Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo & Other) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 92
5.2 Vendor Profiles.......... 92
5.2.1 Acer.......... 92
Figure 5.3: Acer Total Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 93
Table 5.3: Acer Total Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 93
Figure 5.4: Acer Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments Split by Type (Notebooks & Tablets) & Notebook Wholesale ASP ($) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 94
Table 5.4: Acer Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments Split by Type (Notebooks & Tablets) & Notebook Wholesale ASP ($) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 94
a. Ultrabooks.......... 95
b. Other Mobile Computing.......... 95
Figure 5.5: Acer Aspire S3.......... 96
5.2.2 Apple.......... 96
Table 5.6: Apple Total Annual Revenue Split by Form-Factor (Desktops, iPad, iPhone, iPod, Portables, Other) FY-2007 to FY-2011.......... 97
Table 5.5: Apple Total Annual Revenue Split by Form-Factor (Desktop, iPad, iPhone, iPod, Portable, Other) FY-2007 to FY-2011.......... 97
Figure 5.7: Apple Worldwide Quarterly Mobile PC Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Split by Form-Factor (iPad & Portables) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 98
Table 5.6: Apple Worldwide Quarterly Mobile PC Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Split by Form-Factor (iPad & Portables) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 98
a. Macbook Air.......... 99
b. Other Mobile Computing Products.......... 99
Figure 5.8: Apple Macbook Air Family.......... 100
5.2.3 ASUS.......... 100
Figure 5.9: ASUSTeK Computer Net Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 100
Table 5.7: ASUSTeK Computer Net Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 101
Figure 5.10: ASUS Worldwide Quarterly Mobile PC Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Netbooks & Notebooks & Tablets) & Wholesale ASP ($) Split by Form-Factor (Netbooks & Notebooks & Tablets) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 102
Table 5.8: ASUS Worldwide Quarterly Mobile PC Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Netbooks & Notebooks & Tablets) & Wholesale ASP ($) Split by Factor (Netbooks & Notebooks & Tablets) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 102
a. Ultrabooks.......... 103
b. Other Mobile Computing Products.......... 103
Figure 5.11: ASUS Zenbook.......... 103
5.2.3 Dell.......... 103
Figure 5.12: Dell Net Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 104
Table 5.9: Dell Net Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 104
Figure 5.13: Dell Quarterly Worldwide Notebook Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 105
Table 5.10: Dell Quarterly Worldwide Notebook Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 105
a. Ultrabook.......... 106
b. Other Mobile Computing Products.......... 106
5.2.3 HP.......... 107
Figure 5.14: HP Net Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Division (Personal Systems Group & Other) FY-2007 to FY-2011.......... 107
Table 5.11: HP Net Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Division (Personal Systems Group & Other) FY-2007 to FY-2011.......... 107
Figure 5.15: HP Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Notebook & Tablet) & Notebook Wholesale ASP ($) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 108
Table 5.12: HP Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Notebook & Tablet) & Notebook Wholesale ASP ($) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 109
a. Ultrabooks.......... 109
b. Other Mobile Computing Products.......... 110
Figure 5.16: HP Folio13.......... 110
5.2.4 Lenovo.......... 110
Figure 5.17: Lenovo Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 111
Table 5.13: Lenovo Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2006 to FY-2010.......... 111
Figure 5.18: Lenovo Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Notebook & Tablet) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 112
Table 5.14: Lenovo Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Notebook & Tablet) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 112
a. Ultrabooks.......... 113
b. Other Mobile Computing Products.......... 114
Figure 5.19: Lenovo IdeaPad U300s.......... 114
5.2.5 Samsung.......... 114
Figure 5.20: Samsung Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2007 to FY-2010.......... 115
Table 5.15: Samsung Annual Revenue ($m) FY-2007 to FY-2010.......... 115
Figure 5.21: Samsung Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Notebook & Tablet) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 115
Table 5.16: Samsung Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Computing Shipments (m) Split by Form-Factor (Notebook & Tablet) Q4-2009 to Q3-2011.......... 116
a. Ultrabooks.......... 117
b. Other Mobile Computing Products.......... 117
Figure 5.22: Samsung Series 9 Notebooks.......... 117

Companies Referenced

Companies Interviewed

Dell, HP, Intel, Lenovo, Micron, NVIDIA, Samsung, Texas Instruments

Companies Mentioned

Acer, Amazon, Apple, Archos, ARM, ASUS, Barnes & Noble, Dropbox, Foursquare, Fujitsu, Google, Intel, LG, McAfee, Microsoft, Motorola, NEC, Nuance, Pegatron, Qualcomm, Quora, Reddit, RIM, Sony Ericsson, Sony, Spotify, T-Mobile, Toshiba, Unihan

Extra Info

‡ 8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

Prices

Single User

Single User License (PDF) £1750
Included:  
Email support - analyst time inc
Additional Products:  
30 minutes - analyst time £100
45 minutes - analyst time £150
Hardback book £190
The Ultrabook & Mobile Computing Interactive Forecast Suite £490
Total: £1750.00
$ 2889.00 *
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Multi User

Multi User Network License (PDF) £2500
Included:  
30 minutes - analyst time inc
Additional Products:  
30 minutes - analyst time £100
45 minutes - analyst time £150
Hardback book £190
The Ultrabook & Mobile Computing Interactive Forecast Suite £250
Total: £2500.00
$ 4126.00 *
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Enterprise Wide

Enterprise Wide License (PDF) £3750
Included:  
45 minutes - analyst time inc
The Ultrabook & Mobile Computing Interactive Forecast Suite inc
Additional Products:  
30 minutes - analyst time £100
45 minutes - analyst time £150
Hardback book £190
Total: £3750.00
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Key Questions

1.     What are Ultrabooks, who controls the brand and who stands to gain?

2.     Which form-factors are on-the-rise/on-the-way out in mobile computing and why?

3.     How are key players in the value chain reacting to the mobile computing convergence?

4.     Which technologies are being developed/added-to/removed-from notebooks?

5.     What impact will Windows 8 have on the mobile computing space?

6.     How has Apple's strategy impacted on the mobile computing market and how can other OEMs respond?

7.     What proportion of notebooks will be Ultrabooks by 2016?

8.     What are the prospects for different storage technologies in Ultrabooks over the next five years?

9.     How much will the price of Ultrabooks decline over the next five years and what will the market be worth by 2016?

10.   Which mobile computing form-factors will have the highest growth over the next five years?

11.   How are notebook OEMs performing, what are their strategies and what products are they launching and when?

Any Questions about this report please contact us.

 

Related Reports:

The Ultrabook & Mobile Computing Interactive Forecast Suite, The Ultrabook Briefing 2012-2016

Related Categories: There are no related categories for this report.

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