Next Generation Smartphones

Overview

- Impact assessment of new entrants to the smartphone market
- Paired Comparison Analysis of over a dozen smartphone players
- Extensive Forecasting Suite covering new technologies such as 3D phones, NFC phones and other key opportunities.

This in depth examination of the Smartphone market provides vital analysis for all players wishing to maximise revenues in this rapidly evolving marketplace.  The report includes an extensive market sizing and forecasting suite, including regional subscribers, data usage and traffic volumes up until 2015.

Key forecasts include: the value and number of smartphones shipped, Video calling users, as well as data traffic levels over smartphones for the next five years. The report also forecasts average smartphone selling prices and includes subscriber forecasts split by various criteria including : Incumbent handset manufacturer, Manufacturers with closed operating systems, New entrant - consumer electronics players. Furthermore, it provides forecasts for the Number of NFC and 3D enabled Smartphones as well as projecting the prospects of key operating systems over the next five years.

The strategies of selected Smartphone handset manufacturers, as well the challenges and threats that they face are examined and a paired comparison analysis is provided assessing the strength of various handset players according to several criteria including content strategy, design, and technical innovation.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Smartphones- Drivers and Inhibitors

1.1 Introduction 
1.2 Current Status 
1.3 The Smartphone User 
1.3.1 Early Technology Adopters 
1.3.2 Smartphones Now Appeal To All Generations 
1.4 Smartphone Market Growth 
1.5 A Host of Smartphone Features 
1.5.1 Standard Smartphone Features 
1.5.2 Advanced Smartphone Features 
1.6 Smartphone Definition 
1.7 Handset/Computer Manufacturers\\\' Paths Align 
1.7.1 Convergence 
1.7.2 The Demise of the Application-Specific Device? 
i. The \\\"No Frills\\\" Handset 
1.8 Hardware Differentiation 
1.9 Trends 
1.10 Commoditisation 
Figure 1.1: Commoditisation the Smartphone Market 
1.11 Vertical Integration 
1.11.1 Vertical Cooperation 
1.12 Software Trends 
1.12.1 Cloud 
Figure 1.2: Processing & Data Storage in the Cloud 
1.13 Hardware Trends 
Figure 1.3: Samsung Projector Phone 
1.14 Touch Screens, Batteries and Displays 
1.15 The Operating System 
1.16 The User Interface 
1.16.1 Design and Form Factor 
Figure 1.4: HTC HD mini 
1.17 NFC Enabled Smartphones 
1.18 3D Enabled Smartphones 
1.18.1 The Development of 3D Smartphones 
1.19 Looking to the Future 
Figure 1.5: Nokia\\\'s \\\'morph\\\' Concept Mobile Device 
1.19.1 Future Handset Development Options 
1.19.2 Concept phones 
Figure 1.6: Concept Phones: Apple, Nokia, Sony Ericsson, QuartzTele, Bracelet Phone, BenQ/ Siemens Snake Phone, Glass Phones 
1.20 Impact of Smartphone Success on the Communications Market 
1.20.1 Increasing Mobile Data Volumes 
1.21 Routes to Market 
1.21.1 Carrier Relationships 
1.21.2 The Direct Sales Channel 
Figure 1.7: Google\\\'s Nexus One 
1.22 Industry Directions 
1.22.1 New Device Categories 
1.22.2 The Tablet 
1.23 Handset and Content Ecosystems 
1.23.1 OTA Downloads 
1.23.2 The Rise of Enterprise Apps 
1.23.3 The First App Stores 
i. Handango 
ii. PocketGear 
iii GetJar 
1.24 The iPhone and The App Store 
1.25 The Impact of The App Store 
1.25.1 Industry Reaction to The iPhone/App Store 
1.26 The Industry Response 
Table 1.1: App Store Launches, July 2008 Onwards 
1.27 Market Opportunities 
1.28 Market Challenges 
Table 1.2: Smartphone Market, Drivers and Constraints 
1.29 Conclusion 

2. Strategies and Players

2.1 Introduction 
2.2 Categorising the Players 
2.2.1 Incumbents with Legacy Handset Design 
i. Nokia and Samsung Hold Their Own 
ii. Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Palm 
iii. Nokia Intel Hook Up 
2.3 New Entrants, Advanced Strategies 
2.3.1 Apple 
2.3.2 Google 
i. Android 
ii. Moves Towards Hardware 
iii. Google Strategy Starts with Search 
2.4 New Entrants Consumer Electronics Players 
2.4.1 Consumer Electronics Players\\\' Motivations 
2.4.2 New Entrant Prospects 
2.4.3 The Challenges Faced by Consumer Electronics Players 
2.5 Market Developments 
2.5.1 Market Trends 
2.6 Players\\\' Strategic Options 
Table 2.1: Smartphone Manufacturers, Strategic Options, Challenges and Threats 
2.6.1 Winners and Losers 
2.7 Company Briefs 
2.7.1 Motorola 
Table 2.2: Motorola Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Operating System and Handset Portfolio 
Motorola Strategic Focus 
2.7.2 Company Brief: Apple 
Table 2.3: Apple Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Operating System 
Apple Strategic Focus 
2.7.3 Company Brief: Nokia 
Table 2.4 Nokia Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
OS and Handsets 
Nokia Strategic Directions 
2.7.4 Company Brief: RIM 
Table 2.5: RIM Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
OS and Handsets 
RIM Strategic Focus 
2.7.5 Company Brief: Samsung 
Table 2.6: Samsung Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Operating System and Handsets 
Samsung Strategic Focus 
2.7.6 Company Brief: Sony Ericsson 
Table 2.7 Sony Ericsson Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Operating System and Handsets 
Sony Ericsson Strategic Focus 
2.7.7 Company Brief: HTC 
Table 2.8: HTC Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Handsets and Operating System 
HTC Strategic Focus 
2.7.8 Company Brief: LG Electronics 
Table 2.9: LG Electronics Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Operating System and Handsets 
LG Electronics Strategic Initiatives 
2.7.9 Company Brief: ZTE 
Table 2.10: ZTE Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Handsets and OS 
ZTE Strategic Focus 
2.7.10 Company Brief: Palm 
Table 2.11: Palm Company Brief 
Corporate 
Shipments 
Operating System and Handsets 
Palm Strategic Focus 
2.8 Paired Comparisons 
2.8.1 Paired Comparisons Methodology 
Table 2.12 Assessment Criteria Smartphone Manufacturers 
Figure: 2.1: Paired Comparison: Assessment Criteria 
Figure: 2.2: Paired Comparison: Smartphone Competitor Positions 
2.9 Conclusion 

3. Shipments and Forecasts

3.1 Introduction 
3.1.1 Approach and Assumptions 
Figure 3.1: Smartphone Market Forecasts Methodology 
3.2 Mobile Handset Shipments 
Figure 3.2: Handsets Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 3.1: Handsets Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.2.1 Handset Shipments by Region 
Figure 3.3: Global Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.2.2 Smartphones as a Proportion of the Mobile Handset Market 
Table 3.2: Percentage of New Handsets that are Smartphones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Figure 3.4: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 3.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.3 The Future of Smartphone Pricing 
Figure 3.5: Smartphone Average Selling Price ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 3.4: Smartphone Average Selling Price ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.3.1 Smartphone Shipment Values 
Figure 3.6: Value of Annual Smartphone Shipments ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 3.5: Value of Annual Smartphone Shipments ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.4 Forecasts by Handset Manufacturer Category 
Figure 3.7: Smartphone Forecasts ($m) Split by Manufacturer Category 2010-2015 
Table 3.6: Smartphone Forecasts ($m) Split by Manufacturer Category 2010-2015 
3.5 Smartphone Shipments by Handset Manufacturer\\\'s Geographic Origin 
Figure 3.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) by Geographical Origin of Smartphone Manufacturer Split by Asia Pacific Region, Western Europe & North American Region 2010-2015 
Table 3.7: Smartphone Shipments (m) by Geographical Origin of Smartphone Manufacturer Split by Asia Pacific Region, Western Europe & North American Region 2010-2015 
3.6 Smartphone Data Usage Forecasts 
Figure 3.9: Smartphone Data Usage Methodology 
Figure 3.10: Total Data Usage Per Annum (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 3.8: Total Data Usage Per Annum (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.7 Video Calls over Smartphones- Forecasts 
Figure 3.11: Smartphone Video Call Methodology 
3.7.1 Smartphone Video Call Users 
Figure 3.12: Total Number of Smartphone Users making Video Calls (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 3.9: Total Number of Smartphone Users making Video Calls (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.7.2 Mobile Video Call Data Traffic 
Figure 3.13: Total Mobile Video Data Traffic (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 3.10: Total Mobile Video Data Traffic (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
3.8 Conclusion 

4. Operating Systems, Components and Future Technologies

4.1 Introduction 
4.2 The Operating System 
4.2.1 Defining the Operating System 
Figure 4.1: How Does the OS Fit into a Mobile Phone? 
4.3 Types of Proprietary OS 
4.3.1 Development of the Mobile OS 
4.4 Outlook for the Mobile Operating Systems 
4.5 Market Developments - Mobile Operating Systems 
4.5.1 Apples Advantage 
4.5.2 Android Sees Rapid Take Up 
4.5.3 Symbian Hold On 
4.5.4 RIM Keeps Abreast of the Market 
4.5.5 Windows Mobile 7 - High Hopes 
4.5.6 Palm OS- Up to HP 
4.6 Smartphone Operating Systems- Forecasts 
Figure 4.2: Annual Smartphone Shipments Worldwide (m) Split by Operating System 2010-2015 
Table 4.1: Annual Smartphone Shipments Worldwide (m) Split by Operating System 2010-2015 
4.7 Smartphone Operating Systems- Player Case Studies 
4.7.1 RIM and the BlackBerry OS 
Figure 4.3: BlackBerry Curve 8900 
i. BlackBerry Exchange Server 
Figure 4.4:  Diagrammatic Representation of BlackBerry Security 
4.7.2 Symbian 
i. Recent Developments 
4.7.3 Windows Mobile Operating System 
4.7.4 iPhone 
4.7.5 Android 
Figure 4.5: Android Development Framework 
4.8 Smartphone Components 
4.8.1 Display 
i. Types of Display 
4.9 Touchscreens 
4.9.1 Case Study Brief, Screen Technology: Synaptics 
i. Overview 
ii. Future Developments 
4.10 Chipsets 
4.10.1 Overview 
4.10.2 Intel\\\'s Smartphone Specific Chip 
4.10.3 Case Study Brief- Chipsets: ARM 
4.11 NFC, 3D and Projector Smartphones 
4.11.1 NFC, 3D Smartphone Forecasts 
4.11.2 NFC 
4.11.3 NFC Enabled Smartphones Forecasts 
Figure 4.6: Smartphone Forecasts: Installed Base with NFC Capability (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 4.2: Smartphone Forecasts: Installed Base with NFC Capability (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
4.12 3D Enabled Smartphones 
4.12.1 3D Enabled Smartphones Forecasts 
Figure 4.7: Smartphone Forecasts: Installed Base with 3D Capability (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
Table 4.3: Smartphone Forecasts: Installed Base with 3D Capability (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 
4.13 Battery Technology 
4.13.1 Phase Change Material 
4.14 Conclusion 

Glossary

Companies Referenced

Acer, Apple, Dell, Google, Handango, HP, HTC, Huawei, i-Mate, LG Electronics, Motorola, Motricity, Nokia, Palm, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, Symbian, Synaptics, Toshiba, Windows Mobile, ZTE.