Mobile Social Web 2.0

Overview

As the first part of Juniper Research's focus on mobile web 2.0 this report establishes the industry benchmark for investigative analysis providing the most detailed appraisal yet published of the current and future opportunities for the mobile social web market.  It provides an extensive assessment of industry stakeholders and their strategies and features a comprehensive forecasting suite for five years up until 2014.

Key mobile social web 2.0 revenue forecasts in this report include SMS based social web, MMS based social web, dating services, virtual goods and advertising.  It also forecasts social web user numbers, together with the volumes of SMS updates and MMS uploads, as well as advertising cost per click through rates and dating premium service revenues.

The mobile social web 2.0 report includes a detailed set of recommendations for network operators, device manufacturers and service providers. In addition, the report provides a SWOT analysis of the prospects for operators, applications service providers, aggregators, device manufacturers and media/technology owners.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Key Recommendations

2. Mobilising Web 2.0

2.1 Introduction   
2.2 Concepts, Definitions & Parameters   
2.2.1 Mobile Web & Mobile Internet   
i. Mobile Web   
Figure 2.1: Delivery of the Mobile Web   
ii. Mobile Internet   
iii. Mobile Phone Classification   
iii. Other Mobile Internet Categories   
a. Mobile Broadband, USB Modems & PC Cards   
b. MIDs & UMPCs   
c. Smart Netbook   
2.2.2 Enterprise 2.0   
2.2.3 Mobile 2.0   
Table 2.1: Mobile 1.0 vs. Mobile 2.0   
2.2.4 Translating Web 2.0 to Mobile   
i. Share, Collaborate, Exploit   
ii. Made for Mobile   
iii. Meshed Flow of Information via the Cloud   
2.2.5 Juniper\'s Web 2.0 Mobile Framework   
Figure 2.2: The Web 2.0 Mobile Market Framework   
2.3 Mobile Web Delivery Mechanisms   
2.4 Additional Mobile 2.0 Enablers   
2.4.1 Gateways   
Figure 2.3 Messaging Gateway Architecture   
2.4.2 Location Technologies   
Figure 2.4: Basic LBS Components   
i. Cellular   
ii. Fire Eagle   
iii. Geolocation API   
iv. GeoRSS   
v. GPS   
vi. JPEG   
vii. OMA\'s SUPL Server   
Figure 2.5: SUPL Server Architecture   
2.4.3 Mobile Messaging   
2.4.4 Presence   
i. Mobile IM   
ii. RCS (On-Net)   
Figure 2.6: Example RCS Implementation   
iii. VoIP   
2.4.5 Telecom Web Services   
i. Parlay X   
ii. OneAPI   
Figure 2.7: The OneAPI Architecture   
iii. BONDI Initiative

3. Challenges & Regulation

3.1 Introduction   
3.2 Challenges   
3.2.1 Advertising   
i. Design Challenges   
ii. Market Fragmentation   
iii. Technical Challenges   
3.2.2 Bit Pipes   
Figure 3.1: Effect of the Bit Pipe Model   
i. Drivers   
ii. Messaging Goes OTT   
Figure 3.2: Proliferation of OTT Applications   
3.2.3 Browsing Experience   
3.2.4 Cultural Influences   
i. Social Web   
ii. Mobile Dating   
iii. Sexual Content   
3.2.5 Device Constraints   
i. Connecting Multimedia Endpoints   
ii. Browsing   
Table 3.1: Challenges in Mobile Web Delivery   
iii. Porting Device Clients   
iv. Usability   
a. Smartphone Reliability   
3.2.6 Longevity   
i. Sustainability of Social Web Growth   
ii. Social Web Users are Fickle   
iii. Information Overload   
3.2.7 Managing Fragmentation   
i. Asynchronous (Web 2.0) vs. Synchronous (Web 1.0)   
ii. Need for Consistency   
iii. Trust Model   
3.2.8 Monetisation   
i. MNO Value Proposition & RCS   
ii. Micropayments vs. For Free   
iii. Demise of the Ad-funded Model?   
3.2.9 Network Constraints   
Figure 3.3: Global Mobile Data Traffic   
i. Bandwidth Crunch   
ii. IP\'s Always-On Challenge   
iii. Smartphones Impact QoS   
3.2.10 VoIP: Friend or Foe?   
i. The Threat   
ii. The Opportunity   
iii. The ASP Challenge   
3.3 Regulation, Privacy & Data Protection   
3.3.1 Compliance Considerations   
Figure 3.4: Regulatory Spheres of Influence   
3.3.2 Regulatory Developments   
i. Australia   
a. Restricted Access Systems Declaration   
ii. Canada   
a. Wireless Code of Conduct   
b. Facebook Investigation   
iii. China   
a. Censorship   
b. Management of SMS Advertising Services   
iv. European Union   
a. Data Roaming   
b. Data Protection Principles   
v. United Kingdom   
a. EC Directive Regulations 2002/Electronic Commerce Directive Regulations 2007   
b. Privacy and Electronic Communications (EC Directive) Regulations 2003   
c. Text, Picture and Video Messaging   
d. Location Data   
e. Code of Practice - Passive Location Services   
vi. Hong Kong   
a. UEMO   
vii. Russia   
a. Mobile VoIP   
viii. Japan   
a. Location Data   
ix. US   
a. Location Data   
b. Net Neutrality   
c. VoIP   
3.4 Data Protection & Privacy  in the Mobile Context   
3.4.1 Sliding Scale of Control Activities   
Figure 3.5: The Sliding Scale of Control Activities   
3.4.2 Social Web & Personal Data   
3.4.3 Guidance for SNS   
3.4.4 Location Data   
i. Location-Aware Ads   
3.4.5 Technology Evolution Out-paces Regulation   
3.4.6 Blogs & Liability   
3.4.7 User Behaviour & SNS Privacy Failings   
i. Layered Terms & Conditions   
ii. Web 2.0 Natives\' Willingness to Share   
iii. Viral Backlash   
3.4.8 Surveillance

4. Mobilising Web 2.0: Market Forecasts

4.1 Forecast Methodology   
Figure 4.1: Forecast Methodology   
4.2 The Global Web 2.0 Mobile Market   
4.2.1 Categories and Revenue Stream Parameters   
4.2.2 Pricing & Business Model Parameters   
4.2.3 Total Global Web 2.0 Mobile Revenues   
Table 4.1: Social Web Users as a % of Total Mobile Web Browsers Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 4.2: Global Social Web 2.0 Mobile Market Value ($m) 2009-2014   
Table 4.3: Global Social End User Revenue ($m) 2009-2014   
Table 4.4: Global Social Web Advertising Market Value ($m) 2009-2014

5. Social Web

5.1 Introduction   
5.2 Social Web Mobile Market   
5.2.1 Global Overview   
i. Web-Based Players Dominate   
Table 5.1: SNS By Monthly Mobile Users   
ii. Regional Battle Unfolds   
a. Cultural Considerations   
Figure 5.1: World Map of Social Networks   
Table 5.2: Top-3 Mobile SNS Ranked by Popularity   
iii. Rise of Social Media   
iv. Shift in Media Consumption   
Figure 5.2: Change in Media Consumption Patterns   
5.2.2 Demographics & User Behaviour   
i. Realtime Generation   
ii. US Mobile Web & SNS Adoption   
Figure 5.3: Mobile Internet Usage by Device and Age Group   
a. Older Generations Getting Online   
Figure 5.4: SNS Profiles by Age Group   
iii. Consumers Taking Control   
iv. Mobile Social Networking in the UK   
5.3 Additional Drivers   
5.3.1 Browsing   
i. Browsing Boom on Mobile   
Figure 5.5: Mobile Web Page Views/user/month - March 2008 to March 2009   
Table 5.3: Web Consumption by Market   
ii. A Global Trend   
5.3.2 Messaging   
Figure 5.6: Social Web Mobile Messaging Uplift - Jan 08 to Sept 2009   
i. Browser Issues   
ii. Connecting the \'Unconnected\'   
iii. Messaging Dialogue & Use Cases   
Table 5.4: Social Web Mobile Messaging Use Cases   
5.3.3 Virtual Economies   
i. Fixed-to-Mobile Migration   
ii. Mobile Virtual Currency   
Table 5.5: Virtual Goods Pricing   
iii. Case Study: Zong   
a. Web 2.0 Drives Business Model   
b. Obstacles to Mobile   

6. Social Web Forecasts

6.1 Introduction   
6.2 Global Mobile Social Web Market Value   
Figure 6.1: Global Market ($m) for Mobile Social Web Split by 5 Products 2009-2014   
Table 6.1: Global Market ($m) for Mobile Social Web Split by 5 Products 2009-2014   
6.3 Total Mobile Social Web User Numbers   
6.3.1 Mobile Social Web Users   
Figure 6.2: All Users (m) Who Use Mobile Social Web Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.2: All Users (m) Who Use Mobile Social Web Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
6.4 Social Web Messaging Volumes and Revenue by Region   
Figure 6.3: Total Number of SMS Updates Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.3: Total Number of SMS Updates Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.4: Value of SMS-Based Social Networking ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.8: Value of SMS-Based Social Networking ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.5: Total Number of MMS Uploads Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.5: Total Number of MMS Uploads Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.6: Value of MMS-Based Social Networking ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.6: Value of MMS-Based Social Networking ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
6.5 Social Web Advertising Revenue by Region   
Table 6.7: Average Number of Responses per User, per Annum - Regional  Forecast 2009-2014   
Table 6.8: Social Web Cost per Click ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.7: Total Advertising Revenues ($m) for Social Web Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.13: Total Advertising Revenues ($m) for Social Web Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
6.6 Dating, Chat & Professional   
6.5.1 Monthly Subscriptions   
Figure 6.8: Number of Users (m) Who Subscribe to Dating, Chat & Professional Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.14: Number of Users (m) Who Subscribe to Dating, Chat & Professional Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.9: Monthly Subscription ARPU ($) per Active User Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.15: Monthly Subscription ARPU ($) per Active User Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.10: Total Revenue from Service Subscriptions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.16: Total Revenue from Service Subscriptions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
6.7 Premium Services   
Figure 6.11: Number of Free Registration Customers (m) Who Pay for Premium Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.17: Number of Free Registration Customers (m) Who Pay for Premium Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.12: Monthly Premium Service/Message ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.18: Monthly Premium Service//Message ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.13: Total Revenue ($m) from Premium Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.19 Total Revenue ($m) from Premium Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
6.8 Advertising & Global Market for Dating, Chat & Professional   
Figure 6.14: Ad Revenue ($m) Derived from Mobile Dating, Chat & Professional Social Web Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.20: Ad Revenue ($m) Derived from Mobile Dating, Chat & Professional Social Web Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.15: Global Market Revenues ($m) for Dating, Chat & Professional - Split by Advertising, Premium Services & Subscriptions 2009-2014   
Table 6.21: Global Market Revenues ($m) for Dating, Chat & Professional - Split by Advertising, Premium Services & Subscriptions 2009-2014   
6.9 Social Web Virtual Goods Market   
Table 6.22: Number of Purchases/Purchasing User/Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.16: Average Price, Per Item ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.23: Average Price, Per Item ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Figure 6.17: Virtual Goods Total Market Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014   
Table 6.24: Virtual Goods Total Market Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014

7. Key Players & Player Strategies

7.1 Service Definitions   
Figure 7.1: The Social Network Map   
7.1.1 Commercial Options   
7.1.2 Generic Mobile SNS   
i. Bebo   
a. Mobile Boosts Growth   
ii. BuzzCity   
a. Distinct Demographics   
b. Business Model   
Figure 7.2: BuzzCity Advertising Value Chain   
iii. Facebook   
a. Background & Investment Capital   
b. Facebook Online   
c. Facebook Mobile   
Figure 7.3: Facebook Mobile   
d.  Mobile Ads Platform   
iv. mig33   
a. Background   
b. A Tencent for Rest of World   
v. Mixi   
a. Service revenues   
Figure 7.4: The Mixi Revenue Model   
Table 5.6: Mixi KPIs Q2 2009   
b. A \'Healthier\' Social Network   
vi. MySpace   
a. Background   
b. Products and Services   
c. MySpace Mobile   
vii. Nate/Cyworld   
a. Background   
b. The First Virtual World   
c. International Expansion Proves Difficult   
Table 5.7: SK Communications KPIs Q1 2009   
viii. renren & kaixin   
a. Background   
b. Products & Services   
c. Strategy   
7.1.3 UGC   
i. Mobage-town (\'Mobile Game Town\')   
Figure 7.5: Mobage-town Business Model   
Table 7.1: Dena Co. Q2 2009 KPIs   
ii. SMS GupShup   
a. Background   
b. Products and Services   
c. Strategy   
iii. Twitter   
a. Background   
b. Open API Conundrum   
c. Significant Innovation   
d. Revenue and Funding   
7.1.4 Dating, Chat & Professional   
i. Case Study: Flirtomatic   
a. Background   
b. Flirting Sees Usage Soar   
Figure 7.6: Flirtomatic Mobile Virtual Gifts   
c. Money for (Virtually) Nothing   
ii. Linked In   
a. Background   
b. Linked In Mobile   
Figure 7.7: Linked In iPhone App   
iii. Jumbuck   
a. Products & Services

Glossary

Companies Referenced

3,  Admob, Aepona, Amazon, Amobee, AOL, Apple, AT&T, Bebo, Bharti Airtel, Buzz City, Cisco, Colibria, Compete, Comverse, Cyworld, Dena, Deutsche Telekom, dotMobi, Ericsson, Etisalat, Facebook, Flirtomatic, Freescale Semiconductor, fring, Google, Gupshup, Infogin, Internet Solutions, Jumbuck, Linked In, Linklaters, Little Springs Designs, Mail.ru, MDA, Megafon, Microsoft, Mig33, Mobage.town, Mocospace, my.mail.ru, MySpace, nate, Newbay Software, Nimbuzz, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks, Novarra, NTT DoCoMo, Nvidia, O2, odnoklassniki, OMA, OMTP, Orange, Orkut, Peperonity, pinch/zoom, Qualcomm, Qzone, renren d. Kaixin, Rogers, Samsung, SK Communications, Skype, Smart Communications, SMS GupShup, Sony Ericsson, Spirent Communications, Swisscom, Tekelec, Telecom Italia, Telefónica, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Telstra, Tencent, T-Mobile, Transtelkom, Twitter, Unified Communications, United Planet, Vincos, vkontakte.ru, Vodafone, Vznet, Yahoo!