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Mobile Roaming.

Mobile Roaming.

Challenges, Opportunities & Market Forecasts 2012-2017

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 03/10/2012
Category: Networks & Technologies
No of Pages: 125
Coverage: Global ~ 8 Key Regions
 

Overview

   Roaming Opportunities & Pricing Analysis

   Silent Roamer Scenarios: Voice vs. Data

   New Interactive Forecast Excel with 15 What-If-Analysis

 

The Report Covers:

 

 30 Pages of Extensive Forecasts. Readers will benefit from a comprehensive suite of five-year calculated projections together with qualified findings regarding the anticipated roaming market opportunity to 2017. Forecasts contained in the report include:

o Number of Mobile Roamers Split by Region, Enterprise & Consumer, Prepaid & Postpaid
o Total Number of Data Roamers Split by Region
o Mobile Roaming Revenue Split by Voice, SMS & Data
o Number of Silent Roamers Split by Voice & Data
o Roaming Revenue Opportunity from Silent Roamers Split by Voice & Data

In addition, active voice and data roamers, together with data usage, traffic and average spend per user models are included in the accompanying Interactive Forecast Excel.

Mobile Roaming Market. The roaming market is encountering increased competitive pressure and is forecast to expand as inter-regional travel increases and consumers wish to remain constantly connected via data-hungry smartphone devices. This report analyses the changing face of international roaming, providing a detailed appraisal of the roaming market along with an examination of LTE roaming as well as its challenges.

Regulatory Overview. The report devotes a chapter to the regulatory environment. Global regulatory initiatives are examined, how they are being adopted by regulators, and how reforms are being implemented. The report aims to provide readers with insights into roaming-based ‘Bill Shock’ and the trend towards regulation based solutions - with a detailed analysis of EU Roaming regulations.

Key Features of The Report Include:

Business Models, Pricing & Opportunities – This new chapter focuses on the roaming opportunities for the different stakeholders within the ecosystem. The report details the opportunities open to MVNOs, M2M Roaming & Hubbing, and further analyses the challenges for mobile operators in the areas of WiFi, VoIP and the impact of roaming fraud. Readers will also gain invaluable insights into the different roaming business and pricing models. 

The Ecosystem – This chapter provides a comprehensive assessment of the key players and the macro wide positioning of each player within the marketplace. Individual case studies provide readers with an indication of the range of players that are active in the market (ranging from mobile operators and roaming service providers to fraud prevention and billing providers) along with their business models and services, based on their adoption of roaming strategies.

 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1. Mobile Roaming Overview

1.1 Introduction 19
1.2 What is Mobile Roaming? 20
Figure 1.1: International Mobile Roaming Snapshot 20
1.2.1 Wholesale and Retail Roaming 21
Figure 1.2: Wholesale and Retail Roaming Market Snapshot 22
1.3 The Changing Face of Roaming 22
1.3.1 Understanding the Mobile Market Drivers 23
i. Flatlining Revenues, Rising Capex, Rising Opex 24
Figure 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2011 - 2016 24
Table 1.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2011 - 2016 25
Figure 1.4: The ‘Nightmare’ Scenario:  Global MNO Service Revenues vs. Capex/Opex ($bn) 2011 - 2016 25
Table 1.2: The ‘Nightmare’ Scenario:  Global MNO Service Revenues vs. Capex/Opex ($bn) 2011 - 2016 26
ii. Enhanced Internet Connectivity & Broadband Growth 26
Figure 1.5: Active Fixed vs. Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Developed and Developing Regions (m), 2007 - 2011 27
Table 1.3: Active Fixed vs. Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in Developed and Developing Regions (m) 2007 - 2011 27
Figure 1.6: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle 28
iii. The Rise of Data 28
Figure 1.7: AT&T Network Data Growth 2007 - 2015 29
Figure 1.8: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2016 29
Table 1.4: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB)  Split by Regions 2012 - 2016 30
iv. The Role of Handsets and Devices 30
Figure 1.9: Global Smartphone Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2016 31
1.4 Examining the Potential of LTE in Roaming 31
1.4.1 The Advantage of LTE Roaming 32
Figure 1.10: LTE Enabled Applications 32
Table 1.5: LTE New Services - Juniper Research Interview Responses 33
Table 1.6: LTE New Connected Devices - Juniper Research Interview Responses 34
1.4.2 LTE Roaming Challenges 34
Figure 1.11: iPad WiFi & 4G Model in Australia 35
1.4.3 Recent Developments 37
1.5 Mobile Roaming Business Evaluation 37

2. Regulatory Overview

2.1 Addressing Roaming-based Bill Shock 39
2.1.1 The Need for Regulation 40
2.2 Mobile Roaming Developments 41
2.2.1 EU Approves Cheaper Mobile Roaming Tariffs 41
Table 2.1: EU Retail and Wholesale Roaming Price Caps 2012 - 2014 41
2.2.2 India – ‘One Nation One Number’ Policy Implemented 42
2.2.3 Russian Ministry Proposes End to Domestic Roaming Charges 42
2.3 Roaming Regulations 42
2.3.1 European Union 43
i. Background: Roaming in the EU 43
ii. EU Roaming Regulatory Developments 43
Table 2.2: EuroTariff Rates for Voice, SMS and Data in the EU, 2009 - 2012 43
2.3.2 South East Asia 44
i. ASEAN 44
Figure 2.1:  Bilateral Mobile Roaming Pricing – Singapore and Malaysia 45
2.4 Roaming Partnerships & Alliances 45
2.4.1 Intra-network Roaming In EMEA: Zain ‘One Network’ 45
2.4.2 Roaming Partnership Model: FreeMove 46
a. International Roaming – Voice 46
b. Data Roaming Services 47
2.4.3 Roaming Alliance Group: Conexus Mobile 47

3. Opportunities, Business Models & Pricing

3.1 Mobile Roaming Stakeholders 49
Figure 3.1: Elements of Mobile Roaming Value Chain 49
3.1.1 Managed Mobile Roaming Services 50
Figure 3.2: Data Usage Calculator - Verizon 50
3.1.2 Unmanaged Mobile Roaming Services 51
3.2 Mobile Roaming Opportunities 51
3.2.1 The Hubbing Strategy 52
Figure 3.3: Roaming Hub vs. Bilateral Model 53
3.2.2 The MVNO Opportunity 53
Figure 3.4: Tru MVNO Global Coverage Map 54
3.2.3 M2M Roaming Opportunity 54
i. The Cellular Telematics Roaming Opportunity 55
Figure 3.5: Number of Consumer Vehicles with Telematics Installed (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 56
Table 3.1: Number of Consumer Vehicles with Telematics Installed (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 56
ii. Recent Developments 56
3.3 The Roaming Market Challenge 57
3.3.1 Seamless WiFi Roaming – Threat or Opportunity? 57
Figure 3.6: WiFi Roaming Cost Model 57
3.3.2 The VoIP and OTT Threat 58
Figure 3.7: Diagrammatical Representation of VoIP 59
i. The Net Neutrality Debate 60
3.3.3 Fraud 60
Figure 3.8: A Cross-Section of Industry Fraud Terms 61
i. NRTRDE (Near-Real Time Roaming Data Exchange) 61
3.4 Roaming Business Models 62
Figure 3.9: Mobile Roaming Business Model 63
3.4.1 Bilateral Roaming Model 63
3.4.2 Centralised and Operator Alliances 64
Figure 3.10: Vodafone Roaming Gateway 64
3.4.3 Mobile Roaming Hubs 65
3.4.4 Mobile – WiFi Roaming 65
3.5 Roaming Pricing Models 65
3.5.1 Analysis of Global Pricing Models 65
Figure 3.11: Roaming Services Payment & Charges Overview 66
a. Example: Vodafone Data & Euro Traveller 67
3.5.2 Euro Pricing Model 67
Figure 3.12: EU Average Voice Call Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q2 2008 - Q4 2011 68
Table 3.2: EU Average Voice Call Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q4 2009 - Q4 2011 68
Figure 3.13: EU Average SMS Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q2 2008 - Q2 2012 69
Table 3.3: EU Average SMS Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q4 2009 - Q4 2011 69
Figure 3.14: EU Average Prices per MB of Roaming Data (€) Split Retail & Wholesale  Q2 2008 - Q2 2012 70
Table 3.4: EU Average Prices per MB of Roaming Data (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale  Q4 2009 - Q4 2011 70
Table 3.5: Data Roaming Cost Savings Example by the European Commission 71

4. Mobile Roaming Forecasts

4.1 Methodology 73
4.1.1 Approach and Assumptions 73
Figure 4.1: Mobile Roaming Market Forecast Methodology 74
4.2 Mobile Roaming Subscribers 75
Figure 4.2: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 75
Table 4.1: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 76
Figure 4.3: Mobile Roamers as a Percentage of Global Mobile Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 77
Table 4.2: Mobile Roamers as a Percentage of Global Mobile Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 77
Figure 4.4: Frequency of UK Travellers within Europe 78
Figure 4.5: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by Enterprise & Consumer Segments  2012 - 2017 78
Table 4.3: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by Enterprise & Consumer Segments  2012 - 2017 78
Figure 4.6: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by Prepaid & Postpaid Segments 2012 - 2017 79
Table 4.4: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by Prepaid & Postpaid Segments 2012 - 2017 79
4.2.1 Enterprise Mobile Roaming Subscribers 79
Figure 4.7: Global Enterprise Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 80
Table 4.5: Global Enterprise Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 80
Figure 4.8: Enterprise Mobile Roamers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 81
Table 4.6: Enterprise Mobile Roaming Subscribers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 81
4.2.2 Consumer Mobile Roaming Subscribers 81
Figure 4.9: Global Consumer Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 82
Table 4.7: Global Consumer Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 83
Figure 4.10: Consumer Mobile Roaming Subscribers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 83
Table 4.8: Consumer Mobile Roaming Subscribers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 84
4.2.3 Prepaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers 84
Figure 4.11: Global Prepaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 84
Figure 4.9: Global Prepaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 85
Figure 4.12: Prepaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 85
Table 4.10: Prepaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 86
4.2.4 Postpaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers 86
Figure 4.13: Global Postpaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 86
Table 4.11: Global Postpaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 87
Figure 4.14: Postpaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 87
Table 4.12: Postpaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 88
4.2.5 Mobile Data Roaming Subscribers 88
Figure 4.15: Global Active Mobile Data Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 88
Table 4.13: Global Active Mobile Data Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 89
Figure 4.16: Mobile Data Roamers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 89
Table 4.14: Mobile Data Roamers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 90
4.3 Mobile Roaming Market Revenue 90
4.3.1 Total Mobile Roaming Revenue 90
Figure 4.17: Global Mobile Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 90
Table 4.15: Global Mobile Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 91
Figure 4.18: Global Mobile Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by Voice, SMS and Data 2012 - 2017 91
Table 4.16: Global Mobile Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by Voice, SMS and Data 2012 - 2017 92
4.3.2 Mobile Voice Roaming Revenue 92
Figure 4.19: Global Active Voice Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 92
Table 4.17: Global Active Voice Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 93
Figure 4.20: Average Voice Roaming Spend per Active User per Annum ($), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 93
Table 4.18: Average Voice Roaming Spend per Active User per Annum ($), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 94
Figure 4.21: Global Mobile Voice Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 94
Table 4.19: Global Mobile Voice Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 95
4.3.3 Mobile SMS Roaming Revenue 95
Figure 4.22: Average SMS Roaming Spend per User per Annum ($), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 95
Table 4.20: Average SMS Roaming Spend per User per Annum ($), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 96
Figure 4.23: Global Mobile SMS Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 96
Table 4.21: Global Mobile SMS Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 97
4.3.4 Mobile Data Roaming Revenue 97
Figure 4.24: Average Mobile Data Roaming Cost per MB ($), Split by 8 Key Regions  2012 - 2017 97
Table 4.22: Average Mobile Data Roaming Cost per MB, Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 98
Figure 4.25: Global Mobile Data Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 98
Table 4.23: Global Mobile Data Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 99

5. The Silent Roamer Opportunity

5.1 Silent Roamers 101
5.2 Methodology & Assumptions 102
5.2.1 Approach and Assumptions 102
Figure 5.1: Silent Roaming Forecast Methodology 102
5.3 Mobile Roamers Not Using Voice 103
Figure 5.2: Number of Silent Voice Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 104
Table 5.1: Number of Silent Voice Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 104
5.4 Voice Roaming Revenue Opportunity 105
Figure 5.3: Total Voice Roaming Revenue Opportunity from Silent Roamers ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 105
Table 5.2: Total Voice Roaming Revenue Opportunity from Silent Roamers ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 106
5.5 Mobile Roamers Not Using Data 106
Figure 5.4: Number of Silent Data Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 106
Table 5.3: Number of Silent Data Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 107
5.6 Data Roaming Revenue Opportunity 107
Figure 5.5: Total Data Roaming Revenue Opportunity from Silent Roamers ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 108
Table 5.4: Total Data Roaming Revenue Opportunity from Silent Roamers (m$), Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 - 2017 108

6. Ecosystem Approaches to Roaming

6.1 Players Within The Ecosystem 109
Figure 6.1: Members within the Roaming Ecosystem 109
6.2 Operators & Service Providers 110
6.2.1 France Telecom Orange 110
i. Background 110
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 110
a. Roaming Global eXchange 111
b. Partnership with MACH 111
6.2.2 Skype 111
i. Corporate 111
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 111
6.3 Roaming Alliances 112
6.3.1 Bridge Alliance 112
i. Background 112
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 113
Table 6.1: Bridge Alliance Roaming Plans & Pricing Overview 113
6.4 Roaming Service Providers & Vendors 114
6.4.1 MACH 114
i. Background 114
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 114
Figure 6.2: MACH Portfolio 115
6.4.2 Syniverse 115
i. Background 115
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 116
Figure 6.3: Syniverse Real-Time Alerting & Rating - RoamMonitor 116
6.4.3 Roamware 117
i. Background 117
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 117
6.5 Testing, Billing, Clearing & Settlement Services 118
6.5.1 Keynote SIGOS 118
i. Background 118
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 119
Figure 6.4: GlobalRoamer Testing Platform Snapshot 119
6.6 Policy Management, Fraud & RA 120
6.6.1 Volubill 120
i. Background 120
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 120
Figure 6.5: Volubill Bill Shock Management Snapshot 120
6.6.2 Revector 121
i. Background 121
ii. Strategic Directive: Products & Services 121
6.7 Conclusion 122

Companies Referenced

Profiled
ASEAN; Conexus Mobile Alliance; FreeMove

Interviewed
MACH; Bridge Alliance; Devicescape; FT Orange; Revector; Roamware Inc.; Starhome; Syniverse; Volubill

Mentioned
Accuris Networks; Amazon; AT&T; BSNL; China Mobile; Cisco; Clearwire; Cosmote; Deutsche Telekom; Facebook; FarEasTone; GLOBUL; Google; Hutchinson Telecom; Indosat; Jasper Wireless ; Kore Telematics; KT; Lebara Mobile; Leon Restaurants; McDonalds; MegaFon; MTNL; MTS; NTT; Docomo; Numerex; Orange; Premier Inns; Radisson Hotels; Rostelecom; Sierra Wireless; Skype; Smart; Sprint; Starbucks; StarHub; Syniverse; Telecom Italia; Telefonica; TeliaSonera; T-Mobile; Trumove; Turkcell; Verizon; Vimpelcom; Vinaphone; Vodafone; Zain

Case Studies
MACH; Bridge Alliance; France Telecom Orange; Keynote SIGOS; Revector; Roamware; Skype; Syniverse; Volubill

Extra Info

‡ 8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

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Please note: This product is not available to be purchased individually, or it may have been superceded.
Please see: Mobile Roaming Regulations, Opportunities & In-flight Strategies 2014-2018

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Key Questions

1. What is the importance of mobile roaming within the MNO’s business strategy?
2. What impact will LTE have on roaming usage and what are the challenges involved?
3. How can revenue be accrued from roaming services?
4. What are the most significant barriers to the adoption of mobile roaming services?
5. What is the potential growth of the roaming market in terms of mobile roamers and revenue?
6. What are the costs involved in roaming in terms of voice, SMS and data?
7. What are the potential revenues to be amassed for roaming services from silent voice and data roamers?
8. What are the opportunities for MVNOs and M2M, WiFi, VoIP & OTT providers?

Any Questions about this report please contact us.

 

Related Reports:

The Mobile Roaming Briefing 2012-2017, Mobile Roaming Interactive Forecast Excel 2012-2017

Related Categories: Networks & Technologies

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