Mobile Music Opportunities

Overview

-    High Value Strategic Planning Tool
-    Three Extensive Forecasting Chapters
-    Impact of Illegal File Sharing Analysed

This detailed investigation into the opportunity for mobile music provides an in depth exploration into the complexity of the mobile music ecosystem.  Within three forecasting chapters, the report sizes the market for: Ringtones & Ringback tones; Full Track services (downloads & subscriptions); and Music Videos.

The report provides user and revenue forecasts for each category of mobile music, as well as the average price paid for, and total market value of music services on the mobile. It also provides the number of downloads per user, total number of downloads, and adspend on mobile music, all by 8 key regions.

The report sets the scene by establishing mobile music in context of the music industry as a whole, contrasting the latest shipment data of other devices against mobile handsets, and analysing revenues from digital music as a whole against physical sales. It also analyses the impact of piracy through P2P file sharing on the mobile music market and discusses rights holder and government responses.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Mobile Music Market Development

1.1 Introduction   
1.2 The Opportunity for Mobile Music   
1.2.1 Digital is the Future of Music Distribution   
Figure 1.1: Global Recorded Music Sales ($bn) Split by Format (Digital, Performance Rights & Physical Sales) 2004-2009   
Table 1.1: Global Recorded Music Sales ($bn) Split by Format (Digital, Performance Rights & Physical Sales) 2004-2009   
Figure 1.2: Selected Record Companies\' Digital Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue, FY 2006 to FY 2009   
Table 1.2: Selected Record Companies\' Digital Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue, FY 2006 to FY 2009   
1.2.2 Dedicated MP3 Players Establish Market For, and Lose Out to, Music Phones   
Figure 1.3: Shipments of Apple\'s iPod & iPhone (m) & Global Digital Music Revenues ($bn) 2002-2010   
Table 1.3: Shipments of Apple\'s iPod & iPhone (m) & Global Digital Music Revenues ($bn) 2002-2010
1.2.3 Mobile Handsets are Ubiquitous   
1.2.4 Penetration of Mobile Users Downloading Full Tracks or Subscribing to Full Track Services is Low   
Table 1.4: Penetration (%) of Mobile Users Who Download Full Tracks & Subscribe to Full Track Services Split By 8 Key Regions 2010   
1.2.5 Penetration of 3G Networks & Rollout of 4G Networks   
Figure 1.4: Global 3G/4G Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015   
Table 1.5: Global 3G/4G Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015   
1.2.6 Falling Cost of Data Packages   
Table 1.6: Monthly Cost ($), Usage Limit (MB), Min Cost per MB ($) & Max Cost per MB ($) of PAYG Data Packages from UK MNOs, December 2010   
1.2.7 Developments in Handset Technology Improve User Experience   
Table 1.7: Specifications of Selected Leading Smartphones 2008-2010   
1.2.8 Social Networking Aiding Music Discovery   
Figure 1.5: Apple\'s iTunes Ping Music-Based Social Networking Service   
1.3 Mobile Music Definition   
1.3.1 Ringtones   
Figure 1.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2010   
Table 1.8: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2010   
1.3.2 Ringback Tones   
Figure 1.7: Market Share of Ringback Tones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010 (Value = $4.56 billion)
1.3.3 Full Track Services   
i. Sideloading   
Figure 1.8: \"Syncing\" Music Using Microsoft\'s Windows Media Player   
ii. Downloading   
Figure 1.9: Apple\'s iTunes Store on The iPhone   
iii. Streaming   
Figure 1.10: Grooveshark\'s Mobile App on Google\'s Android OS   
1.3.4 Music Video Downloads   
1.4 The Value Chain   
Figure 1.11: The Value Chain for Mobile Music   
1.5 Business Models   
1.5.1 Pay-per-Download   
Table 1.9: Price ($) of Full Track Downloads of Singles from Selected UK Storefronts, January 2011
1.5.2 Subscription   
Table 1.10: Monthly Cost ($), Availability and General Information on Selected Mobile Music Streaming Services   
1.5.3 Advertising   
a. Case Study: iAd (Apple)   
1.6 Billing   
1.6.1 SMS-based Billing   
1.6.2 Credit Card Billing   
1.6.3 Operator Billing   
1.6.4 WAP Billing

2. The Market for Mobile Music: Ringtones & Ringback Tones

2.1 Introduction   
2.2 Forecast Methodology   
Figure 2.1: Forecast Methodology   
2.3 The Market for Mobile Ringtones   
2.3.2 Users   
Table 2.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
2.3.3 Traffic   
Figure 2.3: Average Number of Ringtones Download per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.3: Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year Split by 8 Regions 2010-2015   
2.3.4 Revenue   
Table 2.5: Average Cost per Download ($) of Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 2.5: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
2.4 The Market for Mobile Ringback Tones   
2.4.2 Users   
Table 2.7: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 2.6: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.8: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
2.3.3 Traffic   
Figure 2.7: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.9: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year Split By 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 2.8: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.10: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
2.3.4 Revenue   
Table 2.11: Average Cost per Monthly Subscription ($) of Mobile Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 2.9: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 2.12: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015

 

3. The Market for Mobile Music: Full Track Download & Subscription

3.1 The Market for Full-Track Mobile Music Downloads   
3.1.2 Users   
Table 3.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Full-Track Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 3.1: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
3.1.3 Traffic   
Figure 3.2: Average Number of Full Track Music Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.3: Average Number of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 3.3: Total Number of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.4: Total Number of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
3.1.4 Revenue   
Table 3.5: Average Cost per Download ($) of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 3.4: Total Revenues ($m) from Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
3.2 The Market for Mobile Music Subscription Services   
3.2.2 Users   
Table 3.7: Mobile Users (%) Who Subscribe to Full-Track Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 3.5: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Full-Track Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.8: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Full-Track Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 3.6: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split By Service Subscribers & Ad Hoc Downloaders 2010-2015   
Table 3.9: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split By Service Subscribers & Ad Hoc Downloaders 2010-2015   
3.2.3 Traffic   
Figure 3.7: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.10: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 3.8: Total Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.11: Total Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
3.2.4 Revenue   
Table 3.12: Average Monthly Cost ($) of Mobile Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 3.9: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 3.13: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015

4. The Market for Mobile Music: Music Videos & the Total Market

4.1 The Market for Mobile Music Videos   
4.1.2 Users   
Table 4.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Music Videos Split By 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 4.1: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Music Videos Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 4.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Music Videos Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
4.1.3 Traffic   
Figure 4.2: Average Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 4.3: Average Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 4.3: Total Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 4.4: Total Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
4.1.4 Revenue   
Table 4.5: Average Monthly Cost ($) of Music Video Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 4.4: Total Revenues ($m) from Music Video Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 4.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Music Video Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
4.2 The Total Market for Mobile Music   
Figure 4.5: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Table 4.7: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015   
Figure 4.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 5 Categories (Music Videos, Full Track Subscriptions, Full Track Downloads, Ringback Tones, Ringtones) 2010-2015   
Table 4.8: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 5 Categories (Music Videos, Full Track Subscriptions, Full Track Downloads, Ringback Tones, Ringtones) 2010-2015

5. Hurdles & Regulation

5.1 Hurdles   
5.1.1 Digital Piracy   
i. What is P2P File Sharing?   
Figure 5.1: A Server-Based Network vs. A Peer-to-Peer-Based Network   
ii. The Evolution of P2P File Sharing   
a. Napster   
Figure 5.2: Napster\'s v2.0 Beta 7 Running on Windows   
b. BitTorrent   
Figure 5.3: µTorrent Application   
c. The Extent of P2P   
Figure 5.4: Torrentz.eu Search for \"Music\"   
Figure 5.5: tTorrent Android Application   
iii. P2P: A Moral Blindspot   
iv. The Way Forward   
5.1.2 Homemade Ringtones   
Figure 5.6: Using Apple\'s Garage Band to Create Ringtones   
Figure 5.7: MP3 Ringtone Maker App for Android Devices by LuckyStar   
5.1.3 Tiered Data Pricing   
5.1.4 Network Coverage   
5.1.5 Limitations of Streaming   
5.1.6 Operator Willingness to Provide Billing for Content Services   
5.1.7 DRM (Digital Rights Management)   
5.2 Regulation and Controls   
5.2.1 Anti-Piracy Legislation   
i. Graduated Response   
a. Case Study: France\'s HADOPI Law   
5.2.2 Application Content Rating   
Table 5.1: Apple\'s iTunes Applications Ratings   
Figure 5.8: iPhone Parental Controls

6. Players in Mobile Music

6.1 Introduction   
6.2 Content Providers: The Major Labels   
6.2.1 EMI Music   
Corporate Profile   
Table 6.1: EMI Revenue ($m) 2006-2010 (Financial year ending 31st March)   
Table 6.2: Share of EMI Total Net Sales (%) By Source H1 2008/9 (Period Ending 30th September 2009) & EMI Internal Estimate of Net Sales By Source 2013   
Strategic Partnerships   
6.2.2 Sony Music Entertainment   
Corporate Profile   
Table 6.3: Sony BMG/Sony Music Entertainment Sales ($bn) 2005/6-2010/11 (Financial Year Ending 31st March)   
Strategic Partnerships   
6.2.3 Universal Music Group   
Corporate Profile   
Figure 6.1: Universal Music Group Revenue ($ million) Split by Digital & Other 2005-2009 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)   
Table 6.4: Universal Music Group Revenue ($ million) Split by Digital & Other 2005-2009 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)   
Strategic Partnerships   
6.2.4 Warner Music Group   
Corporate Profile   
Figure 6.2: Warner Music Group Revenue ($m) Split by Digital & Other 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 30th September)   
Table 6.5: Warner Music Group Revenue ($m) Split by Digital & Other 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 30th September)   
Strategic Partnerships   
6.3 Mobile Network Operators   
6.3.1 Vodafone   
Corporate Profile   
Figure 6.3: Vodafone Group Service Revenues ($m) Split By Region (Europe and Africa, Middle East & Asia Pacific), Q4 FY 2008 to Q3 FY 2010 - Financial Year Ending 31st March   
Table 6.6: Vodafone Group Service Revenues ($m) Split by Region (Group, Europe, Africa Middle East & Asia Pacific), Q4 FY2008 to Q3 FY 2010 - Financial Year Ending 31st March   
Products & Services   
Vodafone Live!   
Vodafone 360   
Vodafone 360: Apps   
Vodafone 360: Full Track Music   
Figure 6.4: Samsung\'s Vodafone 360 H1   
6.3.2 China Mobile   
Corporate Profile   
Figure 6.5: China Mobile Operating Revenues ($m) Split By Type (Value-Added, Other) 2006-2009 - Financial Year Ending 31st December   
Table 6.7:  China Mobile Operating Revenues ($m) Split By Type (Value-Added, Other) 2006-H1 2010 - Financial Year Ending 31st December   
Table 6.8: Number of China Mobile Subscribers (m) 2006-2010   
Products & Services   
Table 6.9: China Mobile Color Ring \"Subscriptions\" (bn) 2006-2009   
6.4 Handset Vendors   
6.4.1 Apple   
Corporate Profile   
Table 6.10: Apple Inc. iPhone Shipments (m), Net Sales From All Products ($bn) and Net Income From All Products ($bn) 2005/6-2009/10 (Financial Year Ending 25th September)   
Products & Services   
iPhone   
Table 6.11: The Evolution of Apple\'s iPhone   
Products & Services (cont.)   
iTunes   
Figure 6.6: iTunes on Apple\'s iPhone   
6.4.2 Nokia   
Corporate Profile   
Figure 6.7: Nokia\'s Handset Shipments (m) & Net Sales Revenue ($m) 2005-2010   
Table 6.12: Nokia\'s Handset Shipments (m) & Net Sales Revenue ($m) 2005-2010   
Products & Services   
Ovi Music Unlimited (formerly Comes With Music) & Ovi Music   
Figure 6.8: Nokia\'s Ovi Store Payment Options By Country   
6.4.3 Sony Ericsson   
Corporate Profile   
Figure 6.9: Sony Ericsson\'s Annual Handset Shipments (m) & Sales ($m) 2006-2010   
Table 6.14: Sony Ericsson\'s Annual Handset Shipments (m) & Sales ($m) 2006-2010   
Products & Services   
Handsets   
PlayNow & PlayNow plus   
Figure 6.10: Sony Ericsson\'s Xperia X10 Running the Mediascape Application   
6.5 Application Providers   
6.5.1 Bounce Mobile (Fireplayer)   
Corporate Profile   
Strategy   
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships   
Products & Services   
Figure 6.11: Bounce Mobile\'s Fireplayer on the iPhone   
6.5.2 Omnifone   
Corporate Profile   
Strategy   
Partnerships   
Products & Services   
6.5.3 Pushlife   
Corporate Profile   
Strategy   
Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships   
Products & Services   
Figure 6.12: Pushlife\'s Music App   
6.5.4 RealNetworks   
Corporate Profile   
Strategy   
Products & Services   
6.5.5 Shazam   
Corporate Profile   
Strategy   
Products & Services   
Figure 6.13: Shazam   
6.5.6 Spotify   
Corporate Profile   
Strategy   
Products & Services   
Figure 6.14: Spotify on Symbian, iPhone and HTC Handsets

Glossary

Companies Referenced

3, AdMob, Amobee, Apple, BitTorrent, Bounce Mobile, China Mobile, EMI Music, Grooveshark, HTC, iAd (Apple), IFPI, Jamster, KDDI, MBlox, Microsoft, Motorola, Napster, Nokia, O₂, Omnifone, Orange, Pushlife, RealNetworks, Rhapsody, Samsung, Shazam, SK Tele com, Sony Ericsson, Sony Music, Spotify, T-Mobile, Universal Music Group, Vodafone,  Warner Music Group.