Mobile Entertainment in a Recession

Overview

This report provides a unique scenario based analysis of the impact of the global economic recession on the various mobile entertainment sectors.  For mobile TV, mobile games, mobile gambling, mobile adult and mobile UGC, this essential report focuses on the key market forces relevant to each sector as well as assessing the likely consequences, positive or negative, of the economic climate today.

Best cased scenarios for each mobile entertainment sector are split by eight key regions together with a top line global forecast based on median and worst case downturn scenarios.  The report also includes a discussion of which services are likely to generate the most revenues during the downturn.

An examination of the key mobile entertainment drivers such as improved handset UIs, is presented as well as an investigation into the major mobile entertainment constraints, such as cost of data services.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Mobile Entertainment Market Development

1.1 Introduction
Figure 1.1 Mobile Entertainment Services: Time to Deployment
1.2 Types of Mobile Entertainment Service
1.2.1 Mobile Gambling
i. Casino Style Gambling
ii. Lotteries
iii. Sports Betting
iv. Betting Exchanges
Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Gambling
GOLD AWARD - mfuse
SILVER AWARD - Spin3
1.2.2 Mobile Adult Content
i. Text-based Adult Services
ii. Images
iii. Moantones
iv. Erotic Games
v. Video-Based Services
Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Adult Services
GOLD AWARD - DisplayBoy
SILVER AWARD - Cherrysauce
1.2.3 Mobile Games
Table 1.1: Games Genre and Examples (with Publisher)
i. Action Games
ii. Logic/Puzzle/Skill Games
iii. Sports and Racing Games
iv. Arcade Games
v. Role Playing Games
vi. Card and Casino Games
vii. Movie Games
viii. Adult Games
ix. Lifestyle Games
Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Games
GOLD AWARD - Apple
SILVER AWARD - Fishlabs
1.2.4 Mobile Music
Future Mobile Awards for Mobile Music
GOLD AWARD - Apple
SILVER AWARD - Shazam
1.2.5 Mobile TV
i. Mobile Streamed TV
ii. Mobile Broadcast TV
Future Mobile Awards for Mobile TV
GOLD AWARD - Telegent
SILVER AWARD - ROK TV
1.2.6 Mobile User Generated Content
Future Mobile Awards for Mobile UGC Services
GOLD AWARD - Twitter
SILVER AWARD - Mocospace
1.2.7 Mobile Infotainment
Table 1.2: Scope of Sport Leisure and Information Content and Services

2. Mobile Entertainment: Market Forecasts & Downturn Impact Analysis

2.1 Forecast Definitions & Methodology
2.1.1 Forecast Definitions
2.1.2 Forecast Methodology
Figure: 2.1: Forecast Methodology.
2.2 The Global Market for Mobile Entertainment: Impact of the Economic Downturn
2.2.1 Global Volatility
2.2.2 Guidance: Impact on 2008 Forecasts
2.3 Mobile Gambling
2.3.1 Key Market Forces
Table 2.1: Mobile Gambling - Impact of Key Market Forces
i. Reduced Frequency/Level of Bet Placed
ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
iii. Wagers Transferred from Physical to Remote Gambling as Customers stay at Home
2.3.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
i. Best Case Scenario
Figure 2.2: Total Wager ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
Table 2.2: Total Wager ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
Figure 2.3: Total Gross Win ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services by Region, 2007-2013
Table 2.3: Total Gross Win ($m) from Mobile Gambling Services by Region, 2007-2013
ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
Figure 2.4: Mobile Gambling Gross Win ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.4: Mobile Gambling Gross Win ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Figure 2.5: Mobile Gambling Gross Win (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.5: Mobile Gambling Gross Win (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
2.4 Mobile Adult Services
2.4.1 Key Market Forces
Table 2.6: Mobile Adult Services - Impact of Key Market Forces
i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend on Mobile Adult Services
2.4.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
i. Best Case Scenario
Figure 2.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Adult Mobile Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
Table 2.7: Total Revenues ($m) from Adult Mobile Services. Best Case Scenario by Region 2007-2013
ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
Figure 2.7: Mobile Adult Services Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.8: Mobile Adult Services Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Figure 2.8: Mobile Adult Services (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.9: Mobile Adult Services (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
2.5 Mobile Games
2.5.1 Key Market Forces
Table 2.10: Mobile Games - Impact of Key Market Forces
i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Lower Frequency of Purchase
ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
iii. Lack of Business Financing
2.5.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
i. Best Case Scenario
Figure 2.9: Total End-User Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games by Region 2007-2013
Table 2.11: Total End-User Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games by Region 2007-2013
ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
Figure 2.10: Mobile Games Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.12: Mobile Games Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Figure 2.11: Mobile Games (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.13: Mobile Games (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
2.6 Mobile Music
2.6.1 Key Market Forces
Table 2.14: Mobile Music - Impact of Key Market Forces
i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Lower Frequency of Purchase
ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
iii. Increase in User-created Ringtones
2.6.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
i. Best/Media Case Scenario
Figure 2.12: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos) by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.15: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music (Ringtones, Ringback Tones, Paid-for Full Tracks, Subscription-based Full Track/Streamed Music Services and Music Videos). Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
ii. Worst Case Scenario
Figure 2.13: Mobile Music Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.16: Mobile Music Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Figure 2.14: Mobile Music (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.17: Mobile Music (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
2.7 Mobile TV
2.7.1 Key Market Forces
Table 2.18: Mobile TV - Impact of Key Market Forces
i. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Lower Subscription Rates and Reduction in ad hoc Purchases
ii. Reduced Discretionary Spend: Longer Handset Cycles
iii. Slower Network Deployments
iv. Lack of Business Financing
2.7.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
i. Best Case Scenario
Figure 2.15: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile TV (Streamed and Broadcast Services). Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
Table 2.19: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile TV (Streamed and Broadcast Services). Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
Figure 2.16: Mobile TV Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.20: Mobile TV Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Figure 2.17: Mobile TV (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.21: Mobile TV (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
2.8 Mobile User Generated Content
2.8.1 Key Market Forces
Table 2.22: Mobile UGC - Impact of Key Market Forces
i. Reduced Discretionary Spend on Premium Events and Virtual Items
ii. Faster Migration to ad-funded Services
2.8.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
i. Best Case Scenario
Figure 2.18: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2013
Table 2.23: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from UGC. Best Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007-2013
ii. Median/Worst Case Scenarios
Figure 2.19: Mobile UGC Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.24: Mobile UGC Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Figure 2.20: Mobile UGC (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.25: Mobile UGC (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
2.9 Mobile Infotainment
2.9.1 Key Market Forces
Table 2.26: Mobile Infotainment - Impact of Key Market Forces
i. Reduced Discretionary Spend on Videoclips, Screensavers, Wallpapers and News Services
ii. Faster Migration to ad-funded Services
2.9.2 Market Forecast: Best and Worst Case Scenarios
i. Best Case/Median Case Scenarios
Figure 2.21: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m). Best/Median Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007 - 2013.
Table 2.27: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m). Best/Median Case Scenario by 8 Key Regions 2007 - 2013.
ii. Worst Case Scenario
Figure 2.22: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.28: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m), Market Forecast (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Figure 2.23: Mobile Infotainment (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
Table 2.29: Mobile Infotainment (%), Market Forecast Growth Rate Comparison (Best Case, Median Downturn; Worst Case) 2009-2013
2.10 The Global Market for Mobile Entertainment: Product Breakdown
2.10.1  Best Case Scenario
Figure 2.24: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Best Case Scenario by Product 2007-2013.
Table 2.30: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Product Forecast 2007-2013.
2.10.2. Median Case Downturn Scenario
Figure 2.25 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Median Case Downturn Scenario by Product 2007-2013.
Table 2.31 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Median Case Downturn Scenario by Product 2007-2013.
2.10.3 Worst Case Scenario
Figure 2.26 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Worst Case Scenario, By Product 2007-2013.
Table 2.32 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Worst Case Scenario, By Product 2007-2013.
Figure 2.27: Comparison of Negative Impact of the Global Economic Downturn, 2009-2010, By Product (Median Case vs. Worst Case)
Table 2.33: Comparison of Negative Impact of the Global Economic Downturn, 2009-2013, By Product (Median Case vs. Worst Case)

3. Mobile Entertainment: Market Drivers & Constraints

3.1 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment
Figure 3.1: Monthly Voice ARPU ($), Selected Countries (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK, US), 2003-2007
3.2 Market Drivers
3.2.1 Ubiquity
3.2.2 Technological Advances - Networks
3.2.3 Technological Advances - Handsets
3.2.4 Data Charges Are Being Reduced…
3.2.5… and Mobile Internet Adoption is Increasing
3.2.6 The iPhone Has Arrived
3.3 Market Constraints
3.3.1 Macro Economic Issues
3.3.2 The User Interface
i. Difficulty in Discovering Services and Content
ii. Difficulty in Accessing Services and Content
iii. Difficulty in Navigating Services and Content
iv. Difficulty in Utilising Multiple Applications Simultaneously
3.3.3 Handset Form, Capacity and Battery Life
3.3.4 Network Speed and Coverage
3.3.5 Cost of Data Services
Table 3.1: UK Operator Data Prices ($) 2008

4. Regulation and Controls

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Regulatory Environments
4.2.1 Pan European
i. The EU Mobile Sweep
ii. Human Rights Act
iii. EU Directives
a. Directive 95/46/EC: Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy
b. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)
c. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)
d. The E-money Directive
4.2.2 National Legislation
i. Australia - the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA)
ii. South Africa - ICASA, FPB, WASPA
a. ICASA
b. FPB (Film and Publications Board)
c. Wireless Application Service Providers\'\' Association (WASPA) of South Africa
ii. UK - PhonepayPlus
4.3 Self Regulation
4.3.1 UK Operator Self Regulation Approach
4.3.2 Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)
4.4 Digital Rights Protection
4.4.1. Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
i. OMA-DRM
ii. Case Study: The French Anti-piracy Law

5. Players in Mobile Entertainment

5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 Selected Operators
i. \'3\' UK
ii. China Mobile
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
iii. KDDI
iv. SK Telecom
v. Sprint Nextel
vi. Vodafone
5.1.2 Some Other Mobile Entertainment Value Chain Players
i. Apple
a. Recent Financial Performance
Table 5.1: Apple Revenue and Net Income Growth 2003-2008 ($m, FYE September 30)
ii. Products and Services
a. iPhone
Figure 5.1: Apple iPhone
b. iPhone 3G
iii. Bango
a. Company Background
b. Products and Services
Figure 5.2: Co-existence of On and Off-Portal Models
iv. Jamba/Jamster
v. mBlox
vi. Mobile Entertainment Forum
vii. Nokia
a. Comes With Music
viii. Sony Ericsson
a. Sony Ericsson Walkman range
Figure 5.3: Sony Ericsson W902 Walkman

Companies Referenced

‘3’ UK, 3 Italia, Alcatel-Lucent, Apple, Bango, BSkyB, BuzzCity, CC Media, Cherrysauce, China Mobile, Connect2Media, DisplayBoy, Fishlabs, Gameloft, Glu Mobile, Jamba/Jamster, KDDI, mBlox, Mfuse, Mobile Entertainment Forum, MobiTV, Mocospace, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Olista, Omnifone, Orange, Playboy, Qualcomm, ROK TV, Shazam, SK Telecom,Sony Ericsson, Spin3, Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile, Telegent, Twitter, Vodafone, YoSpace.