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Mobile Commerce Markets

Mobile Commerce Markets

Sector-by-Sector Trend Analysis & Forecasts 2013-2017

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 19/06/2013
Category: Mobile Commerce
No of Pages: 126
Coverage: Global 8 key regions◊
 

Overview

• All mCommerce Markets Assessed
• Sector-specific Challenges Identified  
• Industry Benchmark Forecasts

Key Features of the Report
This sixth edition of Juniper’s report into mobile commerce provides a strategic assessment of the emerging trends (and their implications) within each of the key mCommerce markets:

•    Remote Mobile Payments for Digital and Physical Goods
•    Mobile Ticketing
•    Mobile Coupons
•    NFC Mobile Payments
•    Mobile Money Transfer
•    Mobile Banking
•    Mobile Gambling

It provides an analysis of where mobile now sits within and across these disparate industries, highlighting and assessing the cross-segment and intra-segment trends and challenges that have emerged.
Player Strategies - Creating an mCommerce Environment
The report explores how key retail factors (including the wider rise of eCommerce) and industry imperatives (such as the need to develop new revenue streams) are acting in tandem with technological innovation to create a marketplace conducive to mCommerce.
Brands & Retailers - Remote and POS Transactions
The report considers strategies for both remote and POS (Point of Sale) commerce, exploring the extent to which mobile is increasingly used by brands and retailers as a means of marrying their digital and physical assets.
Expert Analysis and Strategic Recommendations
With a series of recommendations designed to enable players from across the mCommerce ecosystem – retailers, financial institutions, operators, content providers, vendors – to maximise their opportunity in the mobile money space, the report includes interviews with key players including 2ergo, Bango, Eagle Eye, Fiserv, Gemalto, Hipcricket, Masabi, Neomobile, Proxama, SAP and Valassis.

Market forecasts
The report contains more than 1,000 datapoints in 20 tables and 20 charts, forecasting key metrics for the overall mCommerce market and for each key market segment. Forecasts are split by market and 8 key regions and include:

•    User forecasts
•    Transaction Volume forecasts
•    Transaction Value forecasts

The forecast tables are also contained within an accompanying Excel dataset which is offered free to customers purchasing a multi-user or enterprise-wide licence.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1. The Mobile Commerce Market Today

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Market Outline
1.2.1 Synopsis
1.2.2 Market Segmentation
Figure 1.1: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation
1.3 Market Segment Definitions
1.3.1 Mobile Payments
i. Digital & Physical Goods
ii. Contactless NFC
iii. Mobile Money P2P (Person to Person) Transfer
1.3.2 Mobile Ticketing and Mobile Coupons
i. Mobile Ticketing
ii. Mobile Coupons
1.3.3 Mobile Banking
1.4 Driving the Mobile Commerce Market
Figure 1.2: mCommerce Drivers
1.4.1 Device Drivers
i. The Ubiquity of the Mobile Handset
ii. The Rise of the Smartphone
Figure 1.3: Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2012
iii. The Rise of the Storefront
iv. Emergence of the Smarter Featurephone
v. The Rise of the Tablet
vi. Rise of A2P (Application to Person) SMS
vii. Enhanced Security
1.4.2 Brand/Retail Drivers
i. The Rise of eCommerce
Figure 1.4 & Table 1.1: B2C eCommerce Sales ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2001 & 2011
ii. Below The Line: Mobile as Engagement Mechanism
1.4.3 MNO Drivers
i. ARPU (Average Revenue per User) from Traditional Services is Diminishing
Figure 1.5: Operator-billed Monthly ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2006-2012
ii. Some Operators are Reducing Revenue Share from Billed Content
1.4.4 Secondary Drivers
i. Convenience & User Demand
ii. First-time Financial Access
iii. Real Cash Alternative
1.5 Holding Back The mCommerce Tide: Key Constraints on Growth
1.5.1 Lack of Mobile Optimisation
1.5.2 Poor User Experience
i. Who Owns the Consumer?
ii. Service Security and Trust
1.5.3 Business Model & Payouts
1.5.4 Smartphone Fragmentation
1.5.5 Regulatory Hurdles
1.5.6 Transaction Costs
1.6 Mobile Commerce Forecasts
1.6.1 User Numbers
Figure 1.6 & Table 1.2: Mobile Commerce User Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2017
1.6.2 Transaction Volumes
Figure 1.7 & Table 1.3: Mobile Commerce Annual Transaction Volumes (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2017
1.6.3 Transaction Values
Figure 1.8 & Table 1.4: Mobile Commerce Annual Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017

2. The Market for Digital & Physical Goods

2.1 Introduction
2.2 The mPayment Transaction Lifecycle
Figure 2.1: mCommerce Payment Process
2.3 Mobile Payment Mechanisms: Classification, Opportunities & Challenges
Table 2.1: Mobile Payment Classification
2.3.1 Potential Benefits of mPayments
i. Reduced Churn
ii. Increased ARPU
iii. Increased B2B Revenues
Figure 2.2: PaaS Double-Sided Business Model
2.3.2 Maximising the Potential: Developing Operator Strategies for Remote Payments
i. Leveraging the Billing Relationship
ii. New Business Models: The Shelf-in-Store
2.4 Maximising the Retailer Opportunity in Mobile: mPayment and Beyond
2.4.1 Brand recognition and engagement: an app is not a strategy!
i. Case Study: FT
2.4.2 Beyond mPayments: Mobile At the Heart of Retailer Strategy
i. Case Study - Mobile at the Heart of Retail: eBay
Figure 2.3: eBay Mobile Transaction Volumes ($m), 2008-2013
ii. Case Study - Managing the Transition to Digital: Barnes & Noble
Figure 2.4 & Table 2.2: Barnes & Noble Stores, April 2006-April 2012
2.5 ‘The Middle Men’: Opportunities in the Billing Value Chain
2.6 Digital & Physical Goods Market Forecast
2.6.1 Digital Goods
i. User Base
Figure 2.5 & Table 2.3: Total Remote mPayment Users, Digital Goods (m)  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2017
ii. Transaction Values
Figure 2.6 & Table 2.4: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2017
2.6.2 Physical Goods
i. User Base
Figure 2.7 & Table 2.5: Total Remote mPayment Users, Physical Goods (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
ii. Total Mobile/Nomadic Transaction Values
Figure 2.8 & Table 2.6: Total Remote Transactions from Mobile/Nomadic Devices ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2017
iii. eCommerce is Migrating to a Mobile/Nomadic Environment
Figure 2.9 & Table 2.7: mCommerce vs ‘Fixed’ eCommerce (%), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2017
iii. The Rising Profile of the Tablet as an eCommerce/ mCommerce Vehicle
Figure 2.10 & Table 2.8: Total Remote Transactions from Mobile/Nomadic Devices ($m) Split by Handsets & Tablets, 2012-2017

3. The Market for Mobile Ticketing

3.1 Introduction
Figure 3.1: Mobile Ticketing Service Integration Progression Steps
Figure 3.2: Mobile Ticketing Trends, Drivers & Constraints
3.2 Trends in the mTicketing Sector
3.2.1 mTicketing is Moving Beyond One-2-One Physical Ticket Replacement
3.2.2 Mobile Handsets Increasingly Used for mTicket Validation
3.2.3 Integration with Payments
i. Increasing Payment Values
ii. Appropriate Payment Facilities
3.2.4 Growing Contactless Infrastructure
i. Case Study: London TfL
Figure 3.3: Oyster Card Using MIFARE Technology
3.2.5 The MNO Play
3.3 Ticketing Drivers
3.3.1 User Convenience & Demand
3.3.2 Passbook May Galvanise the Ticketing/Loyalty Space
3.3.3 Dissatisfaction with Paper
i. Switching to Mobile
ii. Queue Busting
3.3.4 Cost Saving Opportunities
i. Air Travel
ii. Terrestrial Transport
iii. Ticketing Overhead Reductions
iv. Environmental Benefits
3.3.5 Enhanced Security & Fraud Reduction
3.3.6 Increased Sales Opportunities
i. Personal Marketing
ii. Cross Selling
iii. Last Minute Sales
iv. A ‘Live’ Ticket
3.4 Ticketing Constraints
3.4.1 User Experience & Support
i. User Interface
ii. Security Perceptions
iii. User Support & Help
3.4.2 Lack of Clear Business Model
i. Mobile Commerce – Financial Institutions Predominate
ii. Mobile Ticketing – Facility Operators Predominate
3.4.3 Interoperability
i. International Interoperability
ii. Regional Interoperability
iii. National Interoperability
3.4.4 Infrastructure Limitations
i. Mobile Barcode Reading
ii. Mobile Web Image Access
iii. Closed System Constraints
3.5.1 Mobile Ticketing User Base
Figure 3.4 & Table 3.1: Total Mobile Phone Users (m) Who Use Mobile Ticketing Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
3.5.2 Mobile Ticketing Transaction Values
Figure 3.5 & Table 3.2: Total Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value Delivered Tickets ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017

4. The Market for Mobile Coupons

4.1 Introduction
4.2 What Is a Mobile Coupon?
Figure 4.1: Mobile Coupon Roles
4.3 Trends in the Mobile Couponing Space
4.3.1 Market Consolidation
4.3.2 From Passive to Interactive Consumer
4.3.3 Location is Key
4.3.4 Redemption Patterns are Shifting
4.3.5 Brands Leveraging the Retail Database
4.3.6 Brands, Merchants and Retailers getting Onboard
4.3.7 Enter the Payments Providers
4.3.8 Driving Towards User Loyalty
Figure 4.2: Google Wallet Home Screen
4.3.9 Mobile Couponing Accelerating in Emerging Markets
4.4 The Mobile Couponing Process
4.4.1 ‘Closed Loop’ Couponing
Figure 4.3: Closed Loop Couponing
i. Validation
ii. Analytics
iii. Real Time Control
4.4.2 Brand Promotion Couponing
Figure 4.4: Brand Promotions
4.4.3 Daily Deals Couponing
Figure 4.5: Daily Deals
Figure 4.6: Groupon Business Model
4.5 Mobile Coupon Forecasts
Figure 4.7 & Table 4.1: Mobile Coupon User Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
4.5.2 Mobile Coupon Redemption Value
Figure 4.8 & Table 4.2: Total Mobile Coupon Retail Redemption Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017

5. The Market for NFC Mobile Payments

5.1 Introduction
5.2 The NFC Ecosystem
Figure 5.1: The NFC Payments Ecosystem
5.3 NFC’s Pivotal Role in Retail
Figure 5.2: The Mobile Device in the Retail Customer Journey
5.4 Trends
5.4.1 NFC Handset Market Growth
5.4.2 NFC Technology Solution Maturity
5.4.3 NFC Security Issues Resolution
5.4.4 NFC/Contactless Infrastructure Rollout
5.5 Drivers
5.5.1 MNO Investment
5.5.2 NFC Support Initiatives
i. Case Study: Singapore IDA
5.5.3 Emerging Market Interest
5.6 Constraints
5.6.1 NFC is a Work in Progress!
Figure 5.3: The NFC Consumer Journey
5.6.2 Business Model Agreement
5.6.3 Mobile Wallet Readiness
5.6.4 Retailer Readiness
5.6.5 User Readiness
5.6.6 Customer Care
5.7 NFC Retail Payments Forecasts
5.7.1 Rationale
Figure 5.4: The Vicious Cycle of NFC Indifference
5.7.2 User Base
Figure 5.5 & Table 5.1: NFC Handsets & Interim Solutions in Use for Payments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
5.7.3 Transaction Values
Figure 5.6 & Table 5.2: Total Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017

6. The Market for Mobile Money Transfer

6.1 Introduction
6.2 Operators and Initiatives
6.2.1 GSMA Mobile Money Initiatives
i. MMT (Mobile Money Transfer)
ii. MMU (Mobile Money for the Unbanked)
6.2.2 Safaricom M-PESA
i. Service Description
ii. Service Statistics
iii. Service Developments
6.2.3 Western Union
6.2.4 Smart Money
Figure 6.1: SmartMoney Service Features
6.3 Specific Drivers and Constraints
Figure 6.2: Mobile Money Transfer: Drivers and Constraints
6.3.1 Specific Drivers
i. Attractive to Users
ii. Migrant Worker Remittances
6.3.2 Specific Constraints
i. Consumer Awareness
ii. Regulatory Issues
iii. KYC Requirements
iv. Lack of Interoperability
v. Inadequate Local Agent Networks
vi. Cost of International Money Transfer
vii. Service Security and Trust
viii. Network Reliability
ix. The Recession
6.4 Money Transfer Market Forecast
6.4.1 User Base
Figure 6.3 & Table 6.1: Mobile Money Transfer Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
6.4.2 Transaction Values
Figure 6.4 & Table 6.2: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers ($m) pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017

7. The Market for Mobile Banking

7.1 Introduction
7.2 Developments Shaping mBanking
7.2.1 The Global Economic Downturn and the Impact of the Banking Crisis
i. The Contemporary Banking Industry
ii. The Impact of Technological Advancements
iii. A New Business Stratagem
7.2.2 Target Market Extension
7.2.3 Service Launches
7.2.4 Mobile Banking Service Expansion
Figure 7.1: Mobile Banking Service Expansion
7.2.5 Messaging
i. Messaging Service Developments
Figure 7.2: Mobile Banking Messaging Types and Characteristics
ii. Advanced Messaging Alerts and Process Alerts
Figure 7.3: Advanced and Process Alerts Potential
iii. Customer Marketing Messaging
7.2.6 Enhanced Services
7.2.7 Mobile RDC (Remote Deposit Capture)
Figure 7.4: Mobile Remote Deposit Capture Process
7.3 Mobile Banking Forecasts
7.3.1 User Base
Figure 7.5 & Table 7.1: Total Mobile Users (m) Who Make MBPP Transactions Split by 8 Key Regions 2012-2017
7.3.2 MBPP ‘Pull’ Service Transaction Value
Figure 7.6 & Table 7.2: Total MBPP Transaction Value ($bn) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017

8. The Market for Mobile Gambling

8.1 Mobile Gambling Hits the Mainstream
8.2 Mobile Gambling Forecasts
8.2.1 Quantifying Mobile Gambling: Wagers & Gross Win
8.2.2 Methodology
8.2.3 Mobile Gambling User Base
Figure 8.1 & Table 8.1: Mobile Gambling Service Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017
8.2.4 Total Mobile Gambling Wagers
Figure 8.2 & Table 8.2: Total Wager ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2017

Companies Referenced

Interviewd: 2ergo, Adyen, CorFire, Doocat Gallery System, Eagle Eye, Fandango, Fiserv, Gemalto, Giesecke & Devrient, Hipcricket, m:coda, Masabi, MoreMagic, NXP, PayWizard, Proxama, SIMalliance, Ticketscript, Valassis, Western Union

 

Profiled: GSMA (GSM Association), Safaricom, Smart Communications, Western Union

 

Case Studied: B&N (Barnes & Noble), eBay, FT (Financial Times), Google Wallet, IDA (Infocomm Development Authority), TfL (Transport for London)

 

Mentioned: Aepona, Amazon, American Express, Appia, Apple, AT&T, Augme, Banco de Oro Universal Bank, Bango, Bankable Frontier Associates, Barclaycard, Belgacom ICS, Betfair, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, BlackBerry, Boku, Brightstar, Briteskies, bwin, CCM Benchmark, CGAP (Consultative Group to Assist the Poor), ClairMail, Commidea, EBA (European Banking Authority), Equity Bank, eServGlobal, Europay, Fig Card, Fishlabs, Fundamo, Gannett, Globe Telecom, Groupon, HTC, IATA, Interpersonal Group, ISO (International Organisation for Standards), Jibun Bank, JRA, KDDI, KT Corporation, LG, LivingSocial, MasterCard, McKinsey & Company, MFoundry, Mobestream Media, Motorola, MTN Uganda, Neomobile Group, Netsize, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Orange, PayPal, PLDT, Point, Qualcomm, RIM, Samsung, SAP, SK Telecom, Smart Card Alliance, Softbank Mobile, Sprint, Sybase 365, Synovate, TEB, Telstra, tickets.com, T-Mobile, Tote, Tracfone, Turkcell, Tyfone, Unibet, US Federal Reserve, VeriFone, VeriFone Systems, Verizon, Visa, Vodafone, Vouchercloud, World Bank, Zong.
&am

Extra Info

◊ 8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East

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Key Questions

  • What is the overall size of the mCommerce market today? And what will it be in five years’ time?
  • What strategies should MNOs, retailers, FIs, content providers and vendors employ to maximise their revenues within the mCommerce arena?
  • Which mCommerce services will exhibit the strongest growth over the next five years? And why?
  • What are the key inhibitors constraining NFC, in retail payments and elsewhere in mCommerce?
  • What are the implications of the key cross-segment trends that define today’s mCommerce market?
  • How is consumer behaviour changing in response to the availability of mCommerce services?
  • How are retailers utilising mobile channels, both in-store and remotely, to increase engagement with consumers?
  • Can MNOs successfully harness mCommerce to create viable revenue streams?

Any Questions about this report please contact us.

 

Related Reports:

Mobile Commerce Markets Dataset 2013-2017

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