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Mobile App Stores

Mobile App Stores

Business Models, Strategies & Market Segmentation 2010-2015

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 08/06/2010
Category: Mobile Content & Applications
No of Pages: 129
Coverage: Global - 8 Key regions
 

Overview

-    Extensive Mobile Apps Forecast Suite
-    App Opportunities Across Mobile Value Chain
-    Storefront Business Models Analysis

When purchasing this report you can also add a 36 page slidedeck powerpoint presentation and a mobile apps database...

This highly anticipated mobile apps report examines the deployments of storefronts in the wake of the App Store launch as well as considering the likely prospects and possible future strategies for storefronts which preceded it.

It provides detailed forecasts up until 2015 for six categories of App for both on-store and off-store delivery, split by content monetization model.  It explores the business models that have been utilized in the mobile apps market, ranging from traditional pay-per-download through the evolution of the freemium model, to the possibilities offered by ad-funded applications.

This report analyses the download vs browser debate, considers the challenges inherent in a browser-based model, and explores the likelihood of a future in which the thin client plays an ever more important role.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1.The Rise of the App Stores

1.1 Introduction
1.2 What is a Mobile Application?
Table 1.1: Examples of Mobile Applications, by Entertainment Category
1.3 What This Report Covers
1.3.1 Categories of Mobile Application
i. Games
ii. Finance & Productivity
iii. Multimedia & Entertainment
iv. Education & Reference
v. Lifestyle & Healthcare
vi. Social Networking
1.4 Driving the App Store-centric Model
1.4.1 The Confluence of iPhone and App Store
1.4.2 Traditional Content Business Models Had Failed to Deliver Revenues
Figure 1.1: Voice ARPU Progression in Selected Markets, 2004-2009 ($)
Figure 1.2: Messaging ARPU Progression in Selected Markets, 2004-2009 ($)
Figure 1.3: Non-Messaging Data ARPU Progression in Selected Markets, 2004-2009 ($)
1.4.3 Handset UIs Have Improved Dramatically
1.4.4 Mobile Internet Adoption is Increasing
1.4.5 Technological Advances - Networks

2. Mobile Ecosystems in a Post-App Store World

2.1 The Traditional Mobile Value Chain & Value Web
Figure 2.1: Traditional Value Chain of Mobile Content
Figure 2.2: Mobile Content Value Web
Figure 2.3: App Store Value Chain
2.2 App Stores For All
Table 2.1: Selected Apps Store Launches 2008-2010
2.3 Challenges Across The Mobile Value Chain
2.3.1 Challenges For Storefront Vendors
i. The Need for Scale
Figure 2.4: The Vicious Circle of the Addressable User Base
a. A Third Party Solution?
b. Addressing Fragmentation
- The First Fruits: Vodafone 360
Figure 2.5: Vodafone 360 H1 by Samsung
a. Will Alliances Bring Sufficient Scale?
i. Monetising the Mass Market
a. Solution 1: Deploy Thin Clients
i. App Store Overload
2.3.2 Challenges for Network Operators
i. The Content Legacy
Figure 2.6: The Content Legacy
ii. Monetising Download Volumes
iii. The Portal Revisited?
iv. Seizing the Opportunity: Operator APIs
2.3.3 Challenges for Vendors
i. Fragmentation
a. Case Study: Ovi
2.3.4 Challenges for Content Providers
i. The Challenge of Differentiation
ii. From Development to Storefront: QA, Content Policies and Developer Agreements
iii. Open OS
iv. The Challenge of Discovery
2.3.5 Challenges for White Label Storefront Providers
i. Case Study: Handster
Figure 2.7: Handster App Store Platform
ii. Case Study: Cellmania
Figure 2.8: Cellmania mFinder Solution
2.3.6 Aggregators: Reposition or Fail?

3. Storefront Business Models: Monetisation, Billing and Delivery Mechanisms

3.1 Monetising Mobile Applications
Figure 3.1: Mobile App Business Models
3.1.1 Pay Per Download
i. Pricing the App
ii. Is Pay-Per-Download An Optimal Business Model For My App?
iii. Case Study - Bolt Creative
3.1.2 Free to Download
i. Case Study: GetJar
a. Business Model
3.1.3 Upselling Content - The Freemium Approach
Figure 3.2: In-App Purchases Via Store Kit
i. The Freemium Challenge - Sustaining Interest in the App
a. Case Study: Shazam
- From Free to Freemium:
3.2 Billing the App
3.3 Advertising in Apps
3.4 Reimagining the Consumer Application
3.4.1 The App as Marketing Tool
i. Case Study: Carling
ii. Case Study: Coca Cola
iii. The Downside
3.4.2 The App As Retail Mechanism
i. Case Study: eBay
Figure 3.3: eBay iPhone App
ii. Case Study: Ocado
Figure 3.4: Ocado on the Go Screenshots
3.5 Delivering the App to the End User: Opportunities for Browser-based Services
3.5.1 Advantages of a Browser-Based Approach
i. Browser-based Applications Have No Porting Costs
ii. Browser-Based Apps Have No Memory Constraints
iii. Browser-based Apps/Content is Portable
3.5.2 Disadvantages of a Browser-Based Approach
i. Browser-Based Services Require Connectivity
ii. Browser-Based Applications Can Be Slow
iii. Mobile Networks Will be Unable to Cope with a Browser-Based Model
iv. Mobile Browsers Are Not Application Platforms
3.5.3 The Rise of the Hybrid - Opportunities for Thin Clients

4. The Market for Mobile App Downloads

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Methodology
Figure 4.1: Bottom-Up Methodology for Derivation of Onstore Mobile App Adoption, Usage and PPD (Pay-Per-Download) Revenues
Figure 4.2: Bottom-Up Methodology for Derivation of Offstore Adoption, Usage and PPD (Pay-Per-Download) Revenues
4.3 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast
Figure 4.3: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
Table 4.1: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
4.4 Mobile Application Users and Usage
Table 4.2: % Mobile Users Who Download Apps Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.4: Number of Mobile Users (m) Who Download Apps Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.3: Number of Mobile Users (m) Who Download Apps Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
4.5 The Retail Market for Onstore Applications
4.5.1 Onstore Users and Usage
Table 4.4: % Application Downloaders (m) who Download via App Stores Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.5: Number of Application Downloaders who Download via App Stores Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.5: Number of Application Downloaders (m) who Download via App Stores Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.6: Average Number of Onstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.6: Average Number of Onstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.7: Total Number of Onstore App Downloads Per Year (m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.7: Total Number of Onstore App Downloads Per Year (m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
4.5.2 Retail Revenues of Onstore Applications
Table 4.8: % Onstore App Downloads Which are Paid For Split by 6 Categories 2009-2014
Figure 4.8: Number of Onstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.9: Number of Onstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.10: Price Per Onstore Mobile Apps Download ($) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.9: Onstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.11: Onstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m), Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
4.6 The Retail Market for Offstore Applications
4.6.1 Offstore Users and Usage
Table 4.12: % Application Downloaders who Download Offstore, Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.10: Number of Application Downloaders (m) who Download Offstore Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.13: Number of Offstore Application Downloaders (m) who Download Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.11: Average Number of Offstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.14: Average Number of Offstore App Downloads per User per Year Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.12: Total Number of Offstore App Downloads Per Year (bn) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.15: Total Number of Offstore App Downloads Per Year (bn) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
4.6.2 Retail Revenues of Offstore Applications
Table 4.16: % Offstore App Downloads Which are Paid For Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.13: Number of Offstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.17: Number of Offstore App Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.18: Offstore Mobile Apps, Price per Download ($) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.14: Offstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.19: Offstore Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
4.7 Total Retail Market for Mobile Applications
4.7.1 Application Usage Levels
Figure 4.15: Total App Downloads (m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.20: Total App Downloads (m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 4.16: Total App Downloads (m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
Table 4.21: Total App Downloads (m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
4.7.2 Application Retail Revenues
Figure 4.17: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 4.22: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by 6 Categories 2009-2014
Figure 4.18: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
Table 4.23: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2014

5. The Market for Mobile App Value-Added Content and Services

5.1 Methodology
Figure 5.1: Bottom Up Methodology for Derivation of Onstore/Offstore Incremental App Revenues (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment)
Figure 5.2: Top-Down Methodology for Derivation of Onstore/Offstore Incremental App Revenues (Social Networking (SN), Finance & Productivity)
5.2 The VAS Market for Onstore Applications
5.2.1 Onstore Users and Usage (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare and Multimedia & Entertainment)
Table 5.1: % of Downloaded Applications That Upsell VAS, Onstore Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Figure 5.3: Number of Onstore Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content, Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Table 5.2: Number of Onstore Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2014
Figure 5.4: Average Number of Onstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Table 5.3: Average Number of Onstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Figure 5.5: Total Number of Onstore VAS Sold (m), Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Table 5.4: Total Number of Onstore VAS Sold (m) Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2014
5.2.2 Incremental Revenues of Offstore Applications
Table 5.5: Price Per Onstore VAS, Split by 4 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Figure 5.6: Onstore Apps, Upselling Revenues ($m) Split by 6 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2009-2015
Table 5.6: Onstore Apps, Upselling Revenues ($m) Split by 6 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2009-2015
5.3 The VAS Market for Offstore Applications
5.3.1 Offstore Users and Usage (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare and Multimedia & Entertainment)
Table 5.7: % of Downloaded Applications That Upsell Offstore VAS Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Figure 5.7: Number of Downloaded Apps That Upsell Offstore VAS, Upsold Content, Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Table 5.8: Number of Offstore Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2014
Figure 5.8: Average Number of Offstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Table 5.9: Average Number of Offstore VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Figure 5.9: Total Number of Offstore VAS Sold (m) Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Table 5.10: Total Number of Offstore VAS Sold (m) Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2014
5.3.2 Incremental Revenues of Offstore Applications
Table 5.11: Price Per Offstore VAS Split by 3 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment) 2009-2015
Figure 5.10: Offstore Apps, Upselling Revenues Split by 5 Categories (Social Networking, Finance & Productivity, Multimedia & Entertainment, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Games) 2009-2015
Table 5.12: Offstore Apps, Upselling Revenues Split by 6 Categories (Social Networking, Finance & Productivity, Multimedia & Entertainment, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Games) 2009-2015
5.4 Total VAS Market for Mobile Applications
Figure 5.11: Mobile Apps, Total VAS Value ($m) Split by 6 Categories (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Education & Reference, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2009-2015
Table 5.13: Mobile Apps, Total VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Category (Games, Lifestyle & Healthcare, Multimedia & Entertainment, Finance & Productivity, Social Networking) 2009-2014
Figure 5.12: Mobile Apps, Total VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
Table 5.14: Mobile Apps, Total Retail Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
5.5 How Content is Monetised
5.5.1 The Implications of the App Store Model
Figure 5.13: Mobile Application Revenues, Split by PPD (Pay-Per-Download) and VAS (Value-Added Service) Business Models 2009-2015
Table 5.15: Mobile Application Revenues, Split by PPD (Pay-Per-Download) and VAS (Value-Added Service) Business Models 2009-2015
Figure 5.14: Total Market for Mobile Apps, PPD and VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
Table 5.16: Total Market for Mobile Apps, PPD and VAS Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015

6. The Market for Mobile App Advertising

6.1 Methodology
Figure 6.1: Methodology for Determining App-Derived Mobile Adspend, Cost per Click-through Based Model
6.2 The Market for Mobile App Adspend
6.2.1 Ad Exposure Levels
Table 6.1: % App Downloads Featuring In-App Advertising Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 6.2: Number of Downloads (m) Featuring in-app Advertising Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Table 6.2: Number of Downloads (m) Featuring in-app Advertising Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 6.3: Number of Advertisements Viewed Per Download, Per Annum Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Table 6.3: Number of Advertisements Viewed Per Download, Per Annum Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 6.4: Total Ads Viewed (m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Table 6.4: Total Ads Viewed (m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
6.2.2 Response Rates
Table 6.5: Response Rates for Mobile Ad Advertising, % CTR per Ad Viewed Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 6.5: Total Responses to Ads Viewed (Click Throughs) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Table 6.6: Total Responses to Ads Viewed (Click Throughs) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
6.2.3 Ad Pricing and Total AdSpend
Table 6.7: Cost Per Clickthrough (CPC) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 6.6: Total AdSpend ($m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
Table 6.8: Total AdSpend ($m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2015
6.3 Mobile Business Models: Relative Revenues
Figure 6.7: Mobile Applications Market Revenues Split by Business Model (PPD, VAS, AdSpend) 2009-2015
Table 6.9: Mobile Applications Market Revenues Split by Business Model (PPD, VAS, AdSpend) 2009-2015
6.4 Mobile Consumer App Categories: Relative Revenues
Figure 6.8: Total Mobile Application Revenues Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Table 6.10: Total Mobile Application Revenues Split by 6 Categories 2009-2015
Figure 6.9: Category Revenues ($m) By Business Model (PPD, VAS, AdSpend) 2015
Table 6.11: Category Revenues ($m) By Business Model (PPD, VAS, AdSpend) 2015

Glossary

Companies Referenced

Airtel, Amobee, Apple, AT&T, Bold Creative, Buongiorna, Carling, Cellmania, China Mobile, Coca Cola, Digital Chocolate, eBay, Facebook, Finblade, GetJar, Gameloft, Google, Handster, LG, Microsoft, Nokia, Ocado, Palm, Pocket Gear, RIM, Samsung, Shazam, Softbank, Sponge Ltd, T-Mobile, Tesco, Verizon Wireless, Vodafone, WINplc.

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Please see: Mobile Apps Stores Future Business Models & Ecosystem Analysis 2012-2016

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Key Questions

1.    How has the growing prevalence of app stores impacted upon the mobile value chain?
2.    What are the primary models for monetising applications, and what are the advantages/disadvantages of each?
3.    What are the key drivers behind an App Store-centric model?
4.    What are the prospects for apps as marketing tools and retail mechanisms?
5.    How much will mobile apps be worth by 2015, and which categories of mobile application will generate the largest revenues?
6.    What are the opportunities for browser-based applications?

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