Tablet & eReader Evolution

Overview

 -  Extensive Forecasting Suite

 -  Retail Strategy Analysis

 -  Unique Technologies Assessment

The tablet market is one of the fastest growing technology sectors at present, rapidly becoming a new iconic content creation platform: one which fuses functionality from a wide range of devices. This report offers a unique proposition for device vendors, hardware component vendors, app developers, investors and mobile network operators alike. Juniper Research submits an industry benchmark study, focusing not only on future opportunities for the tablet market but also the implications for, and opportunities within the established eReader market.

This new study determines the prospects for tablets and eReaders in the context of a range of portable connected devices, concerning user demographics, features and shipment volumes. Additionally, a detailed examination of retail strategies with regards to tablets analyses the various pricing tactics of both MNOs and retailers, including an exhaustive assessment of a range of case studies.  The report also provides analysis of the recent technology developments in terms of CPU, form factor, display technology, as well as accessories for, and the future of tablet OS.  Finally, a breakdown of the rivalry between LCD and electronic ink technology is included.

Key tablet forecasts include the following: tablet shipments by OS (iOS, Android, Windows and others) as well as shipments by connectivity (WiFi only, Cellular/WiFi), display size groups (7” or 10”). Tablet shipments by end user (consumer or enterprise) as well as market value, mobile data usage and installed base. eReader forecasts include shipments by connectivity, market value and installed base.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Positioning & Prospects

1.1 Connected Device
Universe.......... 21
Figure 1.1: Connected
Device Universe - Connectivity & Portability..........22
1.2 Portable Connected
Devices..........23
1.2.1 Tablets..........23
i. Definition..........23
Figure 1.2: Devices
Excluded from Tablet Definition..........23
ii. Development..........23
Figure 1.3: Key Adopted Functionalities of the Tablet..........24
Table 1.1: New Entrants to the Tablet Market in
2011..........25
1.2.2 eReaders..........26
i. Definition..........26
ii. Development..........26
1.2.3 Other Devices..........27
i. MP3 Players..........27
a. Definition..........27
b. Development..........27
Figure 1.4: Apple
Portable Device Shipments (m) p.a.  Split
by Device
(iPad, iPhone & iPod Touch & Other iPods) 2001-2011e..........28
Table 1.2: Apple
Portable Device Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Device 
(iPad, iPhone & iPod Touch & Other
iPods) 2001-2011e..........28
Figure 1.5: iOS Device
Users by Age Group  Split by Device
(iPhone & iPod Touch) January 2010 29
ii. Portable Games
Consoles..........29
a. Definition..........29
b. Development..........29
Figure 1.6: Global
Portable Games Console Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Vendor (Nintendo, Sony) vs. iPod Touch Shipments (m) p.a.
2006-2010..........30
Table 1.3: Global
Portable Games Console Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Vendor (Nintendo, Sony) vs.
iPod Touch Shipments (m) p.a. 2006-2010..........30
iii. Netbook &
Laptops..........31
a. Definition..........31
b. Development..........31

Retail Strategies

2.1 Tablets..........33
Figure 2.1: Tablets Value Chain..........34
2.1.1 Mobile Network Operators..........34
i. Cellular Subscribers..........34
a. Case Study: AT&T Mobility..........34
Figure 2.2: AT&T Branded Computing Subscribers (m) Split by Device
(Postpaid Tablet, Prepaid Tablet & Other Devices)..........35
Table 2.1: AT&T Branded Computing Subscribers (m) Split by Device
(Postpaid Tablet, Prepaid Tablet & Other Devices)..........35
ii. Device Subsidies..........36
Table 2.2: Average Device Subsidies (%) for Tablets..........36
Table 2.3: Softbank iPad 2 Plans..........36
iii. Multi-Device Plans..........37
a. Case Study Orange UK..........37
Table 2.4: Orange UK Combined iPad 2 & iPhone 4 Plans..........37
Table 2.5: Effective Subsidised Cost of iPad 2 with Orange UK Combined Plans..........38
Table 2.6: Cost Saving on Orange UK Combined iPad 2 & iPhone 4 Plans
vs. Orange UK Individual Device Plans..........38
a. The Argument for Multi-Device Plans..........38
2.1.2 Retailers..........39
i. Case Study: Amazon.com..........40
Figure 2.3: Amazon.com Tablet Pricing August 2011..........40
Figure 2.4: Amazon.com's Starting Tablet Prices vs. Starting RRP..........41
2.1.3 Enterprise..........41
Table 2.7: Drivers and Constraints for Enterprise Tablet Adoption..........42
2.2 eReaders 42
2.2.1 Tablets & eReaders: Cannibalisation, Symbiosis or Convergence?..........42
i. Cannibalisation Indicators..........42
a. Price Cuts..........42
Figure 2.5: Amazon Kindle Price Decline..........43
a. Vendor Strategy..........43
i. Symbiosis Indicators..........44
a. Niche is Nice..........44
Figure 2.6: Proportion of Age Demographics (%) in US Using eReaders & Tablets
November 2010 & May 2011..........44
b. E is for Education..........45
iii. Convergence Indicators..........45
a. Hybrid Device..........45
2.2.2 Profile: Amazon..........45
a. Corporate Profile..........45
b. Financial & Operational Results..........45
Figure 2.7: Amazon.com, Inc. ($m) Net Income 2007-2011..........46
Table 2.8: Amazon.com, Inc. ($m) Net Income 2007 to 2011..........46
c. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..........46
Table 2.9: Launch Dates, Pricing & Key Specifications of US Kindle Models..........47
d. Products & Services..........47
Figure 2.8: Amazon Kindle 3..........47
Figure 2.9 Size of Kindle Store eBook Catalogue..........48

Hardware & Software Trends

3.1 Tablets..........49
3.1.1 CPU..........49
i. Recent Trends..........49
Table 3.1: CPU Core-Count and Clock Frequency
of Selected Leading Tablet Models 2010..........50
Table 3.2: CPU Core-Count and Clock Frequency
of Selected Leading Tablet Models 2011..........50
ii. Future Developments..........51
Figure 3.1: Recent and Projected CPU Core-Count and Clock Frequency Development..........51
iii. Profile: ARM..........52
a. Corporate Profile 52
b. Financial and Operational Results..........52
c. Strategic Partnerships & Key Clients..........52
d. Products & Services..........52
3.1.2 Form Factor..........53
i. Display Size..........53
Figure 3.2: Typical Tablet Display Sizes..........53
ii. Dimensions & Weight..........53
Figure 3.3: Apple's iPad (1G) and iPad 2 (2G)..........54
Figure 3.4: Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 Dimensions..........54
Table 3.3: Depth (mm) & Weight (g) of Selected Leading Tablet Models..........55
3.1.3 Touchscreen..........55
Figure 3.5: Resistive Touchscreen..........56
Figure 3.6: Capacitive Touchscreen..........56
i. Profile: Synaptics..........57
a. Corporate Profile..........57
b. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..........57
c. Products & Services..........57
Table 3.4: Synaptics ClearPad Products for Tablets..........58
3.1.4 Camera..........58
Table 3.5: Front-Facing and Rear-Facing Camera Megapixel Ratings
of Selected Leading Tablet Models..........59
3.1.5 Operating Systems..........59
i. Windows..........59
ii. Android..........60
iii. iOS..........60
Figure 3.7: Tablet OS Shipments (m) & Market Share (%) 2010..........61
3.1.6 Accessories..........61
Figure 3.8: Apple iPad 2 Offical Keyboard Dock
& ClamCase's iPad Keyboard Case..........61
Figure 3.9: JOYSTICK-IT iPad Arcade Stick..........62
Figure 3.10: Griffin StompBox pedal board for iPad 2..........62
3.1.7 Future Developments..........62
i. 3D..........62
ii. Biometrics..........63
3.2 eReaders..........64
3.2.1 Display Technology..........64
i. Electronic Ink vs. LCD..........64
Figure 3.11: Electronic Ink vs. LCD..........64
ii. Electronic Ink Cost Trends..........64
iii. Future developments:..........65
ii. Profile: E Ink..........65
a. Corporate Profile..........65
b. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships..........65
c. Products & Services..........65
Figure 3.12: E Ink Display Shipments..........66

Tablet Forecasts

4.1 Methodology..........67
Figure 4.1 Tablet Forecast Methodology..........68
4.2 Total Shipments & Installed Base 68
Figure 4.2: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........69
Table 4.1: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........69
Figure 4.3: Tablets Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........70
Table 4.2: Tablets Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........70
4.3 Shipments by Operating System..........71
Table 4.3: Tablet OS Market Share (%) 2010-2016..........71
Figure 4.4: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split By OS (Android, iOS, Windows, Other) 2010-2016..........71
Table 4.4: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split By OS (Android, iOS, Windows, Other) 2010-2016..........72
4.4 Shipments by Connectivity..........72
Figure 4.5: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. with cellular & WiFi Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........72
Table 4.5: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. with cellular & WiFi Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........73
Figure 4.6: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. with WiFi-Only Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........73
Table 4.6: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. with WiFi-Only Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........74
Figure 4.7: Global Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Connectivity 2010-2016..........74
Table 4.7: Global Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Connectivity 2010-2016..........75
4.5 Shipments by End-Users..........75
Figure 4.8: Enteprise Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........75
Table 4.8: Enteprise Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........76
Figure 4.9: Consumer Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........76
Table 4.9: Consumer Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........77
Figure 4.10: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by End-User (Enterprise & Consumer) 2010-2016..........77
Table 4.10: Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by End-User (Enterprise & Consumer) 2010-2016..........77
4.6 Shipments by Display Size..........78
Figure 4.11: Shipments (m) p.a. of Tablets with Circa 10 Inch Display Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........78
Table 4.11: Shipments (m) p.a. of Tablets with Circa 10 Inch Display Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........79
Figure 4.12: Shipments (m) p.a. of Tablets with 7 Inch Display Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........79
Table 4.12: Shipments (m) p.a. of Tablets with 7 Inch Display Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........80
Figure 4.13: Global Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Display Size (7 Inch & Circa 10 Inch) 2010-2016..........80
Table 4.13: Global Tablet Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Display Size (7 Inch & Circa 10 Inch) 2010-2016..........80
4.7 Market Value..........81
Figure 4.14: Tablet Wholesale ASP ($) Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........81
Table 4.14: Tablet Wholesale ASP ($) Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........81
Figure 4.15: Tablet Market Wholesale Value ($m) Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........82
Table 4.15: Tablet Market Wholesale Value ($m) Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........82
4.8 Data Usage..........83
Figure 4.16: Average Tablet Data Usage (MB) via Mobile Networks per Device per Month Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........83
Table 4.16: Average Tablet Data Usage (MB) via Mobile Networks per Device per Month Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........83
Figure 4.17: Total Tablet Data Usage (PB) p.a via Mobile Networks Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........84
Table 4.17: Total Tablet Data Usage (PB) p.a via Mobile Networks Split By Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........84

eReader Forecasts

5.1 Methodology..........85
Figure 5.1: Tablet Forecast Methodology..........86
5.2 Total Shipments & Installed Base..........86
Figure 5.2: eReader Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........86
Table 5.1: eReader Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........87
Figure 5.3: eReaders Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........87
Table 5.2: eReaders Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........88
5.3 Shipments by Connectivity..........88
Figure 5.4: Shipments (m) p.a. of eReaders with No Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........88
Table 5.3: Shipments (m) p.a. of eReaders with No Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........89
Figure 5.5: Shipments (m) p.a. of eReaders with WiFi-Only Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........89
Table 5.4: Shipments (m) p.a. of eReaders with WiFi-Only Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........90
Figure 5.6: Shipments (m) p.a. of eReaders with cellular & WiFi Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........90
Table 5.5: Shipments (m) p.a. of eReaders with cellular & WiFi Connectivity Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........91
Figure 5.7: eReader Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Connectivity (No Connectivity, WiFi-Only, cellular/WiFi) 2010-2016..........91
Table 5.6: eReader Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Connectivity (No Connectivity, WiFi-Only, cellular/WiFi) 2010-2016..........91
5.4 Market Value..........92
Figure 5.8: eReader Wholesale ASP ($) Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........92
Table 5.7: eReader Wholesale ASP ($) Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........92
Figure 5.9: eReader Wholesale Market Value ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........93
Table 5.8: eReader Wholesale Market Value ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016..........93

Market Players

6.1 Market Share..........95
Figure 6.1: Tablet Vendor Market Share (%) Q2 2011..........95
6.2 Select Vendor Profiles..........96
6.2.1 Apple..........96
Figure 6.2: Apple's Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source (iPad, iPhone & Other)
FY2006-FY2010 (Financial Year Ending Late September)..........96
Table 6.1: Apple's Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source (iPad, iPhone & Other)
FY2006-FY2010 (Financial Year Ending Late September)..........96
Figure 6.3: iPad Shipments (m) vs. iPad ASP ($) Q2 2010-Q2 2011..........97
Table 6.2: iPad Shipments (m) vs. iPad ASP ($) Q2 2010-Q2 2011..........97
iPad..........98
iOS..........98
iTunes..........98
App Store..........98
iCloud..........99
6.2.2 HTC 100
Figure 6.4: HTC's Total Revenue ($m) p.a. 2006-2010..........100
Table 6.3: HTC's Total Revenue ($m) p.a. 2006-2010..........100
HTC Flyer..........101
HTC Watch..........101
Mobile Cloud Gaming with OnLive..........101
Figure 6.5: HTC Flyer..........101
6.2.3 Motorola..........102
Figure 6.6: Motorola Mobility's Annual Device Revenue ($m) vs. Annual Shipments (m) Split by Device
2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)..........102
Table 6.4: Motorola Mobility's Annual Shipments (m) Split by Device, Annual ASP ($) & Annual Device Revenue ($m) 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)..........102
Motorola XOOM..........103
Figure 6.7: Motorola's XOOM Tablet..........104
6.2.4 RIM..........104
Figure 6.8: RIM's Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source
(Financial Year Ending 26th February 2011)..........105
Table 6.5: RIM's Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2011
(Financial Year Ending 26th February)..........105
BlackBerry Playbook..........106
BlackBerry App World..........106
BlackBerry Messenger..........106
Figure 6.9: RIM's BlackBerry Playbook..........106
6.2.5 Samsung..........107
Figure 6.10: Samsung's Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source
2007-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)..........107
Table 6.6: Samsung's Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source
2007-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)..........107
Samsung Galaxy Tab..........108
Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1..........108
Samsung Apps..........108
Figure 6.11: Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1..........109

Companies Referenced

Acer, Amazon.com, Apple, Archos, ARM, ASUSTeK Computer, AT&T Mobility, At&T, Barnes & Noble, BT, Carphone Warehouse, ClamCase, Dell, Dennis Publishing, E Ink Holdings, E Ink, EMI, Engadget, Ericsson, Freescale, Frontier Design Group, Google, Griffin Technology, Hanvon, HP, HTC EMEA, HTC,Huawei, Lenovo, LG Electronics,  LG, Microsoft, Motorola Mobility, Motorola Solutions, Motorola, NBC Universal, Nintendo, Nokia, Orange UK, Palm, Pandigital, PC Pro, Prime View International, Qualcomm, RIM, Samsung, Sega, Softbank, Sony Ericsson, Sony, Sprint, Synaptics, Texas Instruments, T-Mobile Germany, T-Mobile, Toshiba, Verizon Wireless, Warner