Mobile Voice & Video Calling

Overview

- Extensive Industry Assessment
- Five Year Market Projections
- In depth Strategies & Prospects

This in-depth report delivers an expert assessment of the Mobile VoIP and Mobile Video calling markets, providing detailed analysis and key forecasts quantifying the size of opportunity within this rapidly developing ecosystem.

Key forecasts include the value of traffic carried over VoIP networks (split by mobile VoIP applications and mobile VoIP alliances with operators). This is further split by 3G and 4G technologies.  It also forecasts the number of video calling minutes per annum as well the number of mobile video calling users, all by eight regions for five years.

This major study , at over 120 pages, investigates the prospects for mobile VoIP and mobile video calling, and provides the most valuable insights into the current and future market structure to date.  As well as examining recent technology developments and analysing important case studies, this report also considers the various challenges for players wanting to maximise revenues in this fast evolving marketplace.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

The mVoIP and Mobile Video Calling Market

1.1 Introduction    26
1.2 mVoIP    27
1.2.1 mVoIP Defined    27
Figure 1.1: The mVoIP Call    27
1.2.2 The OTT Model    28
1.3 Current Status    29
1.3.1 VoIP- Friend or Foe?    29
Figure 1.2: Diagrammatic Representation of VoIP    30
1.3.2 VoIP Flavours    30
The All IP Call    30
mVoIP Breakout to PSTN    30
1.4 Industry Trends    31
1.4.1 The Backdrop    31
Figure 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2010-2016    31
Table 1.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2010-2016    32
1.4.2 The Rise in Data Traffic    32
Figure 1.4: Total Data Traffic per Annum from Mobile Handsets (PB)  Split by 6 Data Categories 2009-2015    32
1.4.3 New Pricing Models    33
Figure 1.5: AT&T Voice Plans    33
Figure 1.6: Softbank Voice and Data ARPU    34
1.4.4 Mobile Voice Revenues    35
1.4.5 The Development of mVoIP    36
Figure 1.7: Options for Voice Carriage    36
Figure 1.8: mVoIP Traffic in Context    37
1.4.6 Factors influencing mVoIP and mobile video calling take up    38
Technical Considerations    38
Competitive Considerations    38
1.4.7 MNO Stances    38
1.5 Residential and Business Mobile Voice Markets    39
1.5.1 IP Centrex    39
Case Study: Skype Connect    39
1.5.2 High Definition Voice    40
1.6 Challenges & Inhibitors    41
1.6.1 Summary of Challenges Presented by mVoIP    41
Table 1.2: mVoIP Drivers and Inhibitors    42
1.7 Circuit-Switched Voice Forecasts    43
Figure 1.9: Circuit-Switched Voice Traffic Forecast Methodology    43
Figure 1.10: Circuit-Switched Traffic Volumes (millions of minutes)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    44
Table 1.3: Circuit-switched Traffic Volumes (millions of minutes)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    44
Figure 1.11: Circuit-Switched Voice Traffic Revenues ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    45
Table 1.4 Circuit-Switched Voice Traffic Revenues ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    45
1.8 Mobile Video Calling    46
1.8.1. Definitions and Current Status    46
1.8.2 Mobile Voice and Mobile Video – Similarities and Differences    47
Mobile Video Calling Revenue    47
1.8.3 The Challenge of Mobile Video Calling    48
1.8.4 Mobile Video Calling: Towards Acceptance    48
Figure 1.12: Smartphones with Front Facing Cameras Left to Right: iPhone 4, Motorola Droid X, Motorola Atrix 4G, Samsung Epic 4G, HTC Evo 4G    48
1.8.5 Summary of Challenges Presented by Mobile Video Calling    49
Table 1.5: Mobile Video Calling Drivers and Inhibitors    49
1.8.6 Group Mobile Video Calling or Telepresence    50
1.9 The Desktop VoIP Market    50
1.9.1 Desktop VoIP Forecasts    51
Figure 1.13: VoIP over Desktops, Laptops & Tablets Methodology    51
Figure 1.14: Number of Active VoIP Users over Desktops, Laptops & Tablets  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    52
Table 1.6: Number of Active VoIP Users over Desktops Laptops & Tablets by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    52
Figure 1.15: Number of Paying VoIP Users over Desktops, Laptops & Tablets Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    53
Table 1.7: Number of Paying VoIP Users over Desktops Laptops & Tablets Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    53
1.9.2 VoIP Desktop Revenue Forecasts    54
Figure 1.16: Revenues from VoIP Services over the Desktop ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    54
Table 1.8: Revenues from VoIP Services over the Desktop ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    54
1.10 Conclusion    55

Players and Business Models

2.1 Introduction    56
2.2 Recent Developments    56
2.2.1 Microsoft Acquires Skype    57
2.2.2 Facebook to Launch In-Browser Video Calling with Skype    57
2.2.3 Google Launches Video Chat Service Google Hangouts    58
2.2.4 Google Voice/Sprint Tie-Up    58
2.2.5 T-Mobile Facebook Launch    58
2.2.6 Skype/ Qik Acquisition    59
2.2.7 Skype/KDDI Alliance    59
2.2.8 Skype Partnership Program    60
2.2.9 Rebtel Survey    60
2.2.10 Vonage Facebook Integration    60
2.2.11 Tango Finance    60
2.3 The Market Players    61
2.3.1 Market Incumbents    61
2.3.2 Established New Entrants and Recent Start-Ups    61
Market Position    61
2.4 Market Strategies    62
2.4.1 mVoIP Player Routes to Market    62
2.4.2 The Potential of Carrier Alliances    62
2.4.3 The App Download Model    63
2.4.4 SWOT Analysis Comparing mVoIP Operators and Standard Operators    63
Table 2.1: SWOT Analysis of mVoIP Players vs. MNOs    64
2.5 Alternative Strategies    65
2.5.1 Mobile Video Calling    65
Table 2.2: Mobile Video Calling    66
2.5.2 Voice Integration within Existing Applications    67
2.5.3 The Ad-Driven Business Model    67
2.6 Player Profiles    68
2.6.1 Apple and Facetime    68
i. Corporate    68
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    68
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take-Up    69
iv. Juniper’s View: FaceTime’s Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    69
2.6.2 fring    69
i. Corporate    69
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    70
iii. Mobile Video Calling    70
iv. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    70
v. Juniper’s View: fring Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    70
2.6.3 Google Voice    71
i. Corporate    71
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    71
Figure 2.1: Google’s Calling Interface    71
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    72
iv. Juniper’s View: Google Voice Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    72
2.6.4 Nimbuzz    72
i. Corporate    72
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    73
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    73
iv. Juniper’s View: Nimbuzz’s Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    74
2.6.5 ooVoo    74
i. Corporate    74
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    74
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    75
2.6.6 Rebtel    75
i. Corporate    75
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    76
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    76
iv. Juniper’s View: Rebtel’s Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    76
2.6.7 Skype    77
i. Corporate    77
ii. Service Offering and Business Models    77
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take up    78
iv. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    78
2.6.8 Tango    78
i. Corporate    78
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    79
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    79
iv. Juniper’s View: Tango Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    79
2.6.9 Vivox    80
i. Corporate    80
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    80
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    80
iv. Juniper’s View: Vivox Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    81
i. Corporate    81
ii. Service Offering and Business Model    81
iii. Partnerships, Adoption and Take Up    82
iv. Juniper’s View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities    82
2.7 Conclusion    83
Figure 2.2 Player Positioning Within the Voice Market    83

mVoIP Forecasts

3.1 Introduction    85
3.2 Methodology and Assumptions    85
3.2.1 3G Methodology    86
Figure 3.1: 3G mVoIP Methodology    86
3.3 3G VoIP Forecasts    87
3.3.1 The Addressable Market    87
Figure 3.2: mVoIP-Capable Handsets (m) (excluding 4G)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    87
Table 3.1: mVoIP-Capable Handsets (m) (excluding 4G), Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    87
3.3.2 3G mVoIP Users    88
Figure 3.3: Number of 3G mVoIP Users (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    88
Table 3.2: Number of 3G mVoIP Users (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    88
3.4 mVoIP 3G Alliance Forecasts    89
Figure 3.4: 3G mVoIP via Carrier Alliances Methodology    89
Figure 3.5: Number of 3G mVoIP Users via Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    90
Table 3.3: Number of 3G mVoIP Users via Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    90
3.4.1 3G Operator Alliance Minutes of Use    91
Figure 3.6: Annual mVoIP Minutes – 3G Operator Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    91
Table 3.4: Annual mVoIP Minutes – 3G Operator Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    92
3.4.2 mVoIP Operator Alliance Revenues    92
Figure 3.7: Revenues Attributable to mVoIP Alliances ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    93
Table 3.5: Revenues Attributable to mVoIP Alliances ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    93
3.5  mVoIP via Applications    94
Fig 3.8: 3G mVoIP via Applications Forecast Methodology    94
3.5.1 3G Application Users    95
Figure 3.9: Number of 3G mVoIP Users via Applications (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    95
Table 3.6: Number of 3G mVoIP Users via Applications (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    95
3.5.2 3G Application ARPU    96
Table 3.7: VoIP ARPU for 3G Application Users Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    96
3.5.3 Revenues from 3G mVoIP Applications    97
Figure 3.11: 3G VoIP Application Revenues ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    97
Table 3.8: 3G VoIP Application Revenues ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    97
3.5.4 Revenues from 3G Alliances and Applications    98
Figure 3.12: 3G VoIP Application Revenues (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    98
Table 3.9: Alliance & Application Revenues ($m) Attributable to 3G mVoIP Users  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    98
3.6 4G VoIP    99
3.6.1 Methodology    99
Figure 3.13: 4G mVoIP Methodology    99
3.6.2 Addressable Market    99
Figure 3.14: Number of 4G Handset Users (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    100
Table 3.10: Number of 4G Handset Users (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    100
Table 3.11: Number of 4G mVoIP Users (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    101
3.6.3 mVoIP 4G Alliance Forecasts    101
Figure 3.16: Number of  mVoIP users via 4G Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    102
Table 3.12: Number of mVoIP Users via 4G Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    102
3.6.4 4G mVoIP Traffic    103
Figure 3.17: Annual mVoIP Minutes – 4G Operator Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    103
Table 3.13: Annual mVoIP Minutes – 4G Operator Alliances (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    103
3.6.5 4G mVoIP Operator Alliance Revenues    104
Figure 3.18: Revenues Attributable to 4G Alliances ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    104
Table 3.14: Revenues Attributable to mVoIP Alliances ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    104
3.6.6 mVoIP via 4G Applications    105
Figure 3.19: Number of 4G mVoIP Users via Applications (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    105
Table 3.15: Number of 3G mVoIP Users via Applications (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    105
Figure 3.20: VoIP ARPU 3G Applications Users Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    106
Table 3.16: 4G mVoIP ARPU Users via Applications (m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    106
3.6.7 Revenues from 4G VoIP Applications    106
Figure 3.21: 4G VoIP Application Revenues (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    107
Table 3.17: 3G VoIP Application Revenues (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    107
3.6.8 Revenues from 4G Alliances and Applications    108
Table 3.18: Alliance & Application Revenues ($m) Attributable to 4G mVoIP Users  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    108
3.6.9 Summary  of mVoIP users (3G/4G & Applications/Alliances)    108
Figure 3.22: Total mVoIP Users (3G/4G & Alliance/Applications) 2011-2016    108
Table 3.19: Total mVoIP Users (3G/4G & Alliance/ Applications) 2011-2016    109
3.6.10 Users by Category    109
Figure 3.23: mVoIP Users by Network and Traffic Type 2011-2016    109
Table 3.20: mVoIP Users by Network and Traffic Type 2011-2016    110
Figure 3.24: mVoIP Revenues by Network and Traffic Type 2011-2016    110
Table 3.21: mVoIP Revenues by Network and Traffic Type 2011-2016    110
3.7 Conclusion    111

Mobile Video Calling Forecasts

4.1 Introduction    112
4.2 Forecast Approach    113
4.2.1 Forecast Methodology    114
Figure 4.1: Mobile Video Calling Forecast Methodology    114
4.3 Mobile Video Calling Users    114
Figure 4.2: Number of Mobile Video Calling Users (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    115
Table 4.1: Number of Mobile Video Calling Users (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    115
4.4 Mobile Video Calling    116
4.4.1Minutes of Use    116
Figure 4.3: Annual Mobile Video Calling Minutes (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    116
Table 4.2: Annual Mobile Video Calling Minutes (m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    116
4.4.2 Theoretical Traffic Value    117
Figure 4.4: Theoretical Value of Mobile Video Calling ($m)  Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    117
Table 4.3: Revenues Attributable to mVoIP Alliances ($m) Split by Eight Key Regions 2011-2016    117
4.5 Conclusion    118

VoIP Practicalities - The Technology Backdrop

5.1 Introduction    119
5.2 Internet Protocol & IP    119
5.2.1 IP    119
5.2.2 Circuit Switching    120
5.2.3 The Evolution of VoIP    120
5.2.4 The Integration of mVoIP into the Network    120
5.2.5 Voice over Different Network Types    120
i. Using the WiFi Networks    121
5.3 VoIP on 4G Networks    121
5.3.1 Voice Carriage Over 4G Networks    121
i. IMS    121
ii. VoLTE, Volga and OneVoice    121
5.3.2 LTE    122
5.3.3 Circuit-switched Fallback    122
5.3.4 One Voice    123
5.4 Data Offloading Using WiFi    123
5.4.1 Technology – WiFi    123
Table 5.1: WiFi IEEE 802.11 Standards    123
5.4.2  WiFi Offloading    124
Figure 5.1: WiFi Connect – Secure Log-In from Verizon    124
5.5 Data Offloading Using Femtocells    125
5.5.1  Technology – Femtocells    125
Figure 5.2: Femtocell – Oyster 3G and Verizon’s Network Extender (Samsung)    125
5.5.2 Femtocell Offloading    125
Figure 5.3: Femtocell Network at Home    126
5.6 Conclusion    126

Companies Referenced

3UK, Ad2One, Adax, Aircell, AOL, Apple, AT&T, Avaya, Benchmark Capital, Best Buy, BigWorld, Blyk, BT, China Mobile, Cisco, Clearwire, CommuniGate Systems, Deutsche Telekom, Dialogic, Dyyno, easyGroup, E-Plus, Eutelia, Facebook, France Telecom, Fring, Google, Holtzbrinck Ventures, HTC, IBM Business Partners, Index Ventures, Intel, JAHJAH, KDDI, Lenovo, Mangrove Capital, Meebo, MetroPCS, Micromax Mobile, Microsoft, Mobilkom Austria, Motorola, MTN Nigeria, Myspace, NEXON, Nimbuzz, Nokia, North Bridge Venture Partners, NTT Docomo, O2, ooVoo, Orange, Qik, Qtel, Rebtel, RIM, Samsung, SFR, ShoreTel, SingTel, SIPfoundry, Skype, Smarttech, SoftBank, Sony Ericsson, Sprint, Stroër Interactive, Symantec, Tango, Telefónica, Telekom Austria, Telenor, TeliaSonera, TIM, T-Mobile, Toshiba, Transit Telecom, Truphone, Twitter, Universal Pictures, Venfin, Veritas, Verizon, Virgin Mobile, Visa, Vivox, Vodafone, VoiceAge, Vonage, Walmart, Wargaming.net, Wave2Wave Communications, Yahoo!, YouTube