Mobile Data Offload & Onload.

Overview

•    Offload Business Model Analysis
•    Industry Leading Market Intelligence
•    Meticulous Forecasting Methodology

This report provides valuable insight into the multifaceted offload value chain, profiling key vendor offloading solutions, techniques and data usage strategies.  It analyses in detail the opportunities for data migration from mobile to fixed (data offload) as well as data migration from fixed to mobile (data onload) and discusses the relative capacity for players to increase service revenue.

Within the forecast suite, the market for mobile data usage is forecast for up to five years, as well as projections for the volume of data traffic offloaded to WiFi and Femtocells. Total cellular data traffic (Petabytes per annum) is also forecast together with projections for data onload.

This detailed report delivers an in-depth appraisal of the growing demand for mobile data offloading solutions.  It provides industry leading intelligence of the various business models employed, providing a complete understanding of the monetisation of WiFi and Femtocell offload solutions.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Market Overview

1.1 Introduction    18
Figure 1.1: Data Growth Factors    18
1.1.1 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast    19
Figure 1.2: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by Regions 2010-2015    19
Table 1.1: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by Regions 2010-2015    19
1.2 Mobile Data Offload Solutions    20
1.2.1 Scaling, Optimising and Offloading    20
1.2.2 Offloading    20
1.2.3 Optimisation    21
1.3 Market Drivers    21
1.3.1 Increased Data Growth    21
Figure 1.3: Verizon Wireless Network Challenges    22
1.3.2 ‘Always On’ Connectivity    22
Figure 1.4: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle    23
1.3.3 Availability of New Applications and Services    24
1.3.4 Cost Reduction and Enhanced Revenue    24
1.3.5 Patchy Coverage    25
1.3.6 New Business Opportunities    25
1.4 Offloading Challenges    25
1.5 Conclusion    26

2. Technology

2.1 Definition    28
Figure 2.1: Data Offloading for Capacity    28
2.2 Data Offloading using WiFi    29
2.2.1 Technology – WiFi    29
Table 2.1: WiFi IEEE 802.11 Standards    29
2.2.2 WiFi Offloading    29
Figure 2.2: WiFi Connect – Secure Log-In from Verizon    30
2.2.3 Architecture    30
Figure 2.3: WiFi Data Offloading    31
Figure 2.4: Kineto’s WiFi Application for Smartphones and Smart WiFi Access Point    31
2.3 Data Offloading using Femtocells    32
2.3.1 Technology – Femtocells    32
Figure 2.5: Femtocell – Oyster 3G and Verizon’s Network Extender (Samsung)    32
2.3.2 Femtocell Offloading    32
Figure 2.6: Femtocell Network at Home    33
2.3.3 Architecture    33
Figure 2.7: Internet Access via a Femtocell Architecture    34
Figure 2.8: Internet Access via a Selected IP Traffic Offload Enabled Femtocell Architecture    34
2.4 Media Optimisation    35
Figure 2.9: Bytemobile Unison Application Suite for Media Optimisation    35
2.4.1 Media Optimisation Techniques    36
i. Content Aware Compression    36
Figure 2.10: Traditional Compression Versus Content Aware Compression    36
ii. Intelligent Video Caching    36
iii. Just-in-Time Video Delivery    36
Figure 2.11: Traditional Delivery Versus Just-in-Time Delivery    37
iv. Dynamic Bandwidth Shaping    37

3. Business Models

3.1 Monetising WiFi Offload Solution    38
3.1.1 Monetisation Opportunities    39
Figure 3.1: WiFi Offload Business Model    39
i. Incremental Service Revenue    39
ii. Cost Savings    40
iii. Future Infrastructure Support    40
iv. Reduced Churn    41
v. New Business Opportunities    41
vi. International Roaming Opportunity    41
3.2 Monetising Femtocell Offload Solutions    41
3.2.1 Monetisation Opportunities    42
Figure 3.2: Femtocell Offload Monetisation Opportunities    43
i. Incremental Service Revenue    43
ii. Cost Savings    43
iii. Reduce Churn    43
iv. New Business Opportunities    44
v. Market Opportunities    44
3.2.2 Business Case – Femto Forum    44
3.2.3 Case Study – AT&T    45
Figure 3.3: AT&T 3G Microcell    45

4. Operator Strategies

4.1 Introduction    47
4.1.1 Offloading to WiFi and Femtocells    47
4.1.2 Optimisation    48
4.2 France Telecom Orange    48
4.2.1 Strategy    48
4.2.2 Business Model    49
4.3 AT&T USA    49
4.3.1 Strategy    49
4.3.2 Business Models    51
i. AT&T WiFi Hotspots    51
Figure 4.1: AT&T WiFi Hotspots in the US    51
ii. AT&T WiFi Growth    52
Figure 4.2: AT&T WiFi Connection Growth (m) Q3, 2008-2010 Split by Quarters    52
Table 4.1: AT&T WiFi Connection Growth (m) Q3, 2008-2010 Split by Quarters    52
4.4 SoftBank Japan    53
4.5 Verizon Wireless    53
Figure 4.3: Verizon iPad and MiFi Bundle    55
4.6 Vodafone    55
Figure 4.4: Vodafone Sure Signal    56
4.7 KPN Netherlands    56
Table 4.2: KPN WiFi Subscription Packages    57
4.8 Conclusion    57

5. Market Forecasts

5.I Introduction    59
Figure 5.1: Data Migration from Mobile to Fixed and Fixed to Mobile    59
5.2 Methodology and Assumptions    60
Figure 5.2: Mobile Data Offloading Market Forecast Methodology    60
Figure 5.3: Offload & Onload Data Traffic Forecast Derivation Method    61
5.3 Geographical Splits    62
5.4 Mobile Data Offloading Forecast    63
5.4.1 Total Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Feature Phones and Tablets    63
Figure 5.4: Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Feature Phones & Tablets (PB) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    63
Table 5.1: Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated by Smartphones, Feature Phones & Tablets (PB) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    64
5.4.2 Mobile Data Traffic Over the Cellular Network    65
Figure 5.5: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network, as Percentage of Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    65
Table 5.2: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network, as Percentage of Total Mobile Data Traffic Generated Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    65
Figure 5.6: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    66
Table 5.3: Mobile Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    66
5.4.3 Total Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded    67
Figure 5.7: Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network p.a. as Percentage of Total Cellular Mobile Data Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    67
Table 5.4: Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded from the Cellular Network p.a. as Percentage of Total Cellular Mobile Data Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    67
Figure 5.8: Total Mobile Data Traffic that can be Offloaded from the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    68
Table 5.5: Total Mobile Data Traffic that can be Offloaded from the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    70
5.5 Mobile Data Offloaded via WiFi and Femtocells    70
5.5.1 3G/4G Femtocell Take-Up and Access Point Forecasts    70
Figure 5.9: 3G/4G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    71
Table 5.6: 3G/4G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    71
Figure 5.10: 3G/4G Femtocell Take-Up as Percentage of Fixed Broadband Subscribers for Mobile Data Offload Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    72
Table 5.7: 3G/4G Femtocell Take-Up as Percentage of Fixed Broadband Subscribers for Mobile Data Offload Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    72
5.5.2 Mobile Data Offloaded via Femtocell    73
Figure 5.11: Mobile Data Offloaded via Femtocell as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    73
Table 5.8: Mobile Data Offloaded via Femtocell as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    73
Figure 5.12: Mobile Data Offloaded via Femtocell p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    74
Table 5.9: Mobile Data Offloaded via Femtocell p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    74
5.5.3 Mobile Data Offloaded via WiFi    75
Figure 5.13: Free and Paid WiFi Hotspot Availability in North America    75
Figure 5.14: Mobile Data Offloaded via WiFi as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    77
Table 5.10: Mobile Data Offloaded via WiFi as Percentage of Total Data Offloaded p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    77
Figure 5.15: Mobile Data Offloaded via WiFi p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    78
Table 5.11: Mobile Data Offloaded via WiFi p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    78
5.6 Mobile Data Onloading    79
Figure 5.16: Fixed Versus Mobile Broadband Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants in Developed and Developing Regions    79
Table 5.12: Fixed Versus Mobile Broadband Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants in Developed and Developing Regions    79
5.6.1 Total Data Usage by Devices    80
Figure 5.17: Total Data Usage by Devices p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    80
Table 5.13: Total Data Usage by Devices p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    80
5.6.2 Total Data Traffic Onload    81
Figure 5.18: Total Data Traffic Onloaded onto Cellular Networks p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    81
Table 5.14: Total Data Traffic Onloaded onto Cellular Networks p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    81
Figure 5.19: Total Data Traffic Onloaded as Percentage of Total Data Traffic Generated onto Cellular Networks p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    82
Table 5.15: Total Data Traffic Onloaded as Percentage of Total Data Traffic Generated onto Cellular Networks p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    82
5.7 Total Data Traffic Through the Cellular Network    83
Figure 5.20: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    83
Table 5.16 Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network p.a. (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015    83

6. Vendor Strategies

6.1 Ubiquisys    85
Company Profile    85
Offloading Solutions Offered – Femtocells    85
Products Offered    86
Key Developments    86
6.2 BelAir Networks    87
Company Profile    87
Offloading Solutions Offered – WiFi Picocells    87
Products Offered    88
Figure 6.1 BelAir Networks Carrier Grade Product Portfolio    88
Key Developments    88
6.3 IntelliNet Technologies    90
Company Profile    90
Offloading Solutions Offered – WiFi and Femtocell Gateway    90
Figure 6.2: IntelliNet Offload Gateway Solution    90
Products Offered    92
Figure 6.3 IntelliNet Offload Gateway    92
Key Developments    92
6.4 ip.access    93
Company Profile    93
Offloading Solutions Offered – Femtocells and Picocells    93
Figure 6.4: Oyster 3G Technology    93
Products Offered    94
Figure 6.5: Oyster Access Point    94
Figure 6.6: Oyster Access Controller    95
Figure 6.7: Oyster Publishing Provisioning and Management Automation    95
Key Deployments    95
6.5 Bridgewater Systems    95
Company Profile    96
Offloading Solutions Offered – WiFi and Femtocells    96
Figure 6.8: Bridgewater WiFi Solution    96
Figure 6.9: Bridgewater Femtocell Solution    97
Products Offered    97
Key Developments    98
6.6 Kineto Wireless    98
Company Profile    98
Offloading Solutions Offered – Smart WiFi    98
Figure 6.10: Smart WiFi Offload Solution    99
Offloading Products Offered    99
Figure 6.11: Smart WiFi Offload Solution    99
Figure 6.12: Smart WiFi Offload Solution    100
Key Developments    100
6.7 Airvana    101
Company Profile    101
Offloading Solutions Offered – Femtocells    101
Figure 6.13: Airvana’s Femtocell Network Architecture    101
Offloading Products Offered    102
Figure 6.14: Airvana’s Femtocell Access Point    102
Figure 6.15: Airvana’s Femtocell Service Manager    102
Key Developments    103
6.8 Stoke    103
Company Profile    103
Offloading Solutions Offered – WiFi, Femtocells and Gateway Offloading    103
Figure 6.16: Mobile Data Offload from Stoke    104
Figure 6.17: Femtocell Offload from Stoke    104
Figure 6.18: WiFi Data Offload from Stoke    105
Offloading Products Offered    105
Figure 6.19: SSX-3000    106
Key Developments    106
6.9 Openwave    106
Company Profile    106
Offloading Solutions Offered – Media Optimisation    106
Figure 6.20: Openwave Traffic Mediation Solution    107
Key Developments    107
6.10 Bytemobile    108
Company Profile    108
Offloading Solutions Offered – Media Optimisation    108
Figure 6.21: Lossless Media Optimisation    108
Key Developments    109
6.11 Ruckus Wireless    109
Company Profile    109
Offloading Solutions Offered – WiFi Offload    110
Products Offered    110
Figure 6.22: WiFi Products from Ruckus Wireless    110
Recent Developments    110
Glossary    111

Companies Referenced

Airvana, AT&T, BelAir Networks, Bridgewater Systems, Bytemobile,  France Telecom,  Orange, IntelliNet Technologies, ip.access, Kineto Wireless, KPN, Openwave Systems, Ruckus Wireless, Softbank Japan, Stoke, Ubiquisys, Verizon Wireless, Vodafone.