4G LTE Strategies

Overview

•   88 Forecast Tables

•   Scenario-Based Market Projections

•   Expert Analysis of LTE Business Models

The second of two LTE reports, this renewed study provides a strategic evaluation of the full range of prospective business models employed for the 4G revenue generation:

Unrivalled insight into the current and projected LTE market. The report delivers a full suite of market data based on current and forcasted LTE subscriber numbers for both consumers and enterprises. Service pricing is calculated according to four types of business models for maximum coverage of the prospective market:

o    Premium Tier

o    Top Tier

o    Mid Tier

o    Low Tier

Scenario analysis of service revenues and ARPU under three scenarios. Each scenario offers unmitigated analysis of LTE usage and pricing:

o    Average Scenario

o    Power Scenario

o    Mid-Low Scenario

Cutting edge evaluation of spectrum costs and Capex.  An in-depth costing model is provided for players (e.g. mobile operators) alongside an exhaustive deliberation of the two core challenges confronting MNOs: rising Opex and Capex.

Market Status & Direction. The key market drivers and constraints are discussed in addition to an assessment of operator deployments i.e. trial, commercial and planned networks.  

Additional Key Features

Usage Adoption Scenarios enable readers to identify the essential priorities for service providers, in order to optimise revenues.

A Detailed Breakdown of the LTE Market Ecosystem illustrates the impact of LTE on the telecom industry on the whole and the opportunities found therein.

17 LTE commercially launched networks are profiled and assessed by their various stages of development within the 4G industry, drawn from a variety of world regions. 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

LTE Market Status

1.1 Introduction..................... 20

1.2 LTE & LTE Advanced Objectives........................ 20

1.3 LTE-Advanced Market Update..................... 21

1.4 LTE Market Ecosystem...................... 22

Figure 1.1: LTE Ecosystem........................ 22

1.4.1 Equipment Manufacturers & Suppliers.................. 22

Table 1.1: Equipment Manufacture & Suppliers
Industry Commercial Contracts............. 22

1.4.2 End User Device Vendors................... 23

Figure 1.2: Available LTE User Device Products (July
2011)................ 23

i. Samsung - Smartphones................ 24

Figure 1.3: Samsung Droid Charge SCH-i510 LTE Device................... 24

ii. Huawei - USB Modems.................... 24

Figure 1.4: Huawei E398 USB Modem........... 25

1.4.3 Service/ Application Providers................... 25

i. ng Connect Program - Alcatel Lucent........................ 25

Figure 1.5: ng Connect
Program................ 25

1.4.4 Mobile Network Operators........... 26

1.5 LTE Market Drivers................... 26

1.5.1 Mobile Broadband Trends................. 26

Figure 1.6: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle.................. 27

1.5.2 Widespread Industry Support.............. 28

Figure 1.7: LTE Operator Commitments (As of October
2011)............. 28

1.5.3 Mobile Data Traffic Growth......................... 28

Figure 1.8: Verizon Wireless Network Challenges..................... 28

Figure 1.9: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular
Network p.a. (PB)  Split by Eight Key
Regions 2010-2015............................. 29

Table 1.2: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular
Network p.a. (PB)  Split by Regions
2010-2015 30

1.5.4 Decline of ARPU................. 30

Figure 1.10: Base Line
Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service Revenues
2010-2016........................... 30

Table 1.3: Base Line
Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service Revenues
2010-2016......................... 31

Figure 1.11: The ‘Nightmare' Scenario:  Global MNO Service Revenues vs. CAPEX/OPEX
($bn) 2010-2016......................... 31

Table 1.4: The ‘Nightmare' Scenario:  Global MNO Service Revenues vs. CAPEX/OPEX
($bn) 2010-2016................. 32

1.5.5 New Service and Revenue Opportunities................. 32

Figure 1.12: LTE Enabled Applications....................... 32

Table 1.5: LTE New Services - Juniper Research
Interview Responses................... 32

1.5.6 New Connected Devices.................... 33

Table 1.6: LTE New Connected Devices - Juniper
Research Interview Responses.......................... 33

1.5.7 Improved User Experience.......................... 34

1.5.8 Technical Advantages......................... 34

1.6 The Hurdles Facing LTE......................... 34

1.6.1 Business Models and Service Monetisation..................... 35

1.6.2 Devices..................... 35

i. Device Availability................ 35

ii. Device Types....................... 36

Figure 1.13: LTE Device Introduction Timeline............. 36

iii. Device Convergence and Development...................... 37

iv. 1.6.3 Spectrum: When and How Much?............... 37

Figure 1.14: Digital
Dividend Spectrum Status............ 37

1.6.4 Backhaul Capacity Requirements........................ 38

Figure 1.15: Total Mobile Backhaul Bandwidth Capacity
Requirement (Gbps)  Split by Eight Key
Regions 2011-2016.............................. 38

Table 1.7: Total Mobile Backhaul Bandwidth Capacity
Requirement (Gbps)  Split by Eight Key
Regions 2011-2016......................... 39

LTE Operator Status

Figure 2.1: Number of
Network Commitments Comparison  (HSDPA,
HSUPA, HSPA+, LTE)..... 40

2.1 North America............. 41

2.1.1 Verizon Wireless USA...................... 41

Figure 2.2: Verizon
Wireless USA 4G Market Map....................... 41

Table 2.1: Verizon Wireless
4G LTE Devices Example................ 42

2.1.2  AT&T
Mobility............................. 42

i. LTE Strategy.......................... 42

ii. LTE Commercial Launch.................. 43

Figure 2.3: AT&T LTE
Coverage Map...................... 43

2.2 Latin America..................... 44

2.2.1 America Movil.................. 44

2.3 Western Europe.................. 44

2.3.1 TeliaSonera Norway & Sweden............... 45

Figure 2.4: Samsung LTE
Modem Dongle................... 45

2.3.2 Vodafone Germany.......................... 46

2.3.3 Telecom Italia.................. 47

2.3.4 France Telecom Orange.............. 47

i. LTE Strategy........................... 47

ii. LTE Field Test Parameters....................... 48

Figure 2.5: Architecture of
the France Telecom Orange LTE EPC Trial Network....................... 48

iii. LTE EPC Commercial Launch................... 49

Figure 2.6: France Telecom Orange LTE Deployment
Timeline........... 49

2.3.5 Everything Everywhere & O2, United Kingdom.............. 50

Figure 2.7: Everything
Everywhere and BT 4G LTE Broadband Trial Area Map............... 50

2.4 Central & Eastern Europe..................... 50

2.4.1 Yota Russia................. 51

2.5 Far East & China............. 51

2.5.1 NTT DoCoMo Japan........................ 51

Figure 2.8: NTT DoCoMo
Super 3G (LTE) Timeplan........... 52

2.5.2 China Mobile.............. 53

2.6 Indian Subcontinent.................... 54

2.7 Rest of Asia Pacific................. 54

2.7.1 Telstra Australia............... 54

Figure 2.9: Telstra 4G LTE
Mobile Broadband Dongle.......... 55

2.7.2 SingTel Singapore................ 55

2.8 Africa & Middle East..................... 56

2.8.1 VivaCell-MTS Armenia.................. 56

2.8.2 Etisalat UAE................. 56

2.8.3 Zain Bahrain............... 57

Table 2.2: Nokia Siemens
Network - Zain, Bahrain LTE Solution & Benefits.................. 57

2.8.4 MTS and Ucell Uzbekistan................... 58

2.9 Analysis and Conclusion.............. 58

2.9.1 LTE Network Commitments to Date........... 58

Figure 2.10: LTE Network
Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (as at June 2010)  Number of MNOs................. 59

Table 2.3: LTE Network
Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (as at June 2011)  Number of MNOs.............. 59

2.9.2 LTE Future Launches by Country.................. 60

Figure 2.11: LTE Network
Launch Date by Country 2009-2013 and Beyond................ 60

2.10 Spectrum for LTE Deployments................. 61

Figure 2.12: LTE Potential Spectrum Bands................ 61

Table 2.4: Global LTE Spectrum Band Availability for Mobile
Operators................ 61

2.10.1 Spectrum Refarming........................... 62

Table 2.5: Spectrum Refarming Cost Savings....................... 63

LTE Subscriber Forecasts

3.1 Methodology.................. 64

3.1.1 Geographical Splits..................... 64

3.1.2 Methodology and Assumptions........................ 65

Figure 3.1: LTE Market Forecast Methodology................. 65

3.1.3 Technology Splits.................. 66

3.2 Cellular Market Growth........... 66

Figure 3.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016................. 67

Table 3.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016................... 67

Figure 3.3: Cellular Subscriber Base Market Share (%)
by Region 2011-2016................. 68

Table 3.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (%) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016................. 68

Figure 3.4: Cellular Subscriber Penetration (%) Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016................ 68

Table 3.3: Cellular Subscriber Penetration (%) Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 69

3.3 Regional Broadband and LTE Subscriber Forecasts............. 69

3.3.1 MNO Strategies................. 69

3.3.2 North America........... 70

Figure 3.5: North America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A
& B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 70

Table 3.4: North America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A
& B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 71

Figure 3.6: North America LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 71

Table 3.5: North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer
Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................... 72

3.3.3 Latin America............... 72

Figure 3.7: North America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A
& B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................... 72

Table 3.6: Latin America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A
& B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................... 73

Figure 3.8: Latin America LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................... 73

Table 3.7: Latin America LTE Enterprise & Consumer
Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016......................... 73

3.3.4 Western Europe.................. 74

Figure 3.9: Western Europe LTE and HSPA Mobile
Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016......... 74

Table 3.8: Western Europe LTE and HSPA Mobile
Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....... 75

Figure 3.10: Western Europe LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 75

Table 3.9: Western Europe LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................ 75

3.3.5 Central and Eastern Europe.............. 75

Figure 3.11: Central and Eastern Europe LTE HSPA and
EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.............. 76

Table 3.10: Central and Eastern Europe LTE HSPA and
EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................ 76

Figure 3.12: Central and Eastern Europe LTE Enterprise
& Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 77

Table 3.11: Central and Eastern Europe LTE Enterprise
& Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 77

3.3.6 Far East & China..................... 77

Figure 3.13: Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 78

Table 3.12: Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................... 78

Figure 3.14: Far East & China LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 79

Table 3.13: Far East & China LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016..................... 79

3.3.7 Indian Subcontinent............. 79

Figure 3.15: Indian Subcontinent LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................ 80

Table 3.14: Indian Subcontinent LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................. 80

Figure 3.16: Indian Subcontinent LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 80

Table 3.15: Indian Subcontinent LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 81

3.3.8 Rest of Asia Pacific................ 81

Figure 3.17: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................. 82

Table 3.16: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................... 82

Figure 3.18: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...................... 82

Table 3.17: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 83

3.3.9 Africa & Middle East................... 83

Figure 3.19 Africa & Middle East LTE, HSPA and
EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................... 83

Table 3.18: Africa & Middle East LTE, HSPA and
EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................. 84

Figure 3.20: Africa & Middle East LTE Enterprise
& Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................. 84

Table 3.19: Africa & Middle East LTE Enterprise
& Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 84

3.3.10 Global............ 85

Figure 3.21: Global LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B
Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................... 85

Table 3.20: Global LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B
Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................. 85

Figure 3.22: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016.................. 85

Table 3.21: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016.................... 86

Figure 3.23: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer
Mobile Broadband Subscribers  (m)
2011-2016.................... 86

Table 3.22: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer
Mobile Broadband Subscribers  (m)
2011-2016..................... 87

Figure 3.24: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Added p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016................ 87

Table 3.23: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Added p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016.................... 88

LTE Business Models: Service Pricing Forecasts

4.1 Tariff Announcements................... 90

4.1.1 AT&T.................... 90

4.1.2 TeliaSonera........................ 91

4.1.3 Vodafone Germany.............................. 91

Figure 4.1: Vodafone Germany LTE Home Packages..................... 91

4.1.4 NTT DOCOMO.................................... 92

Figure 4.2: NTT DOCOMO LTE Monthly Charges..................... 92

4.2 LTE Service Pricing Approach.................... 93

4.2.1 Tariff Analysis...................... 93

Figure 4.3: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements - $
per month.............. 93

Table 4.1: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements by
Operators - $ per month.................... 93

Figure 4.4: Average LTE Pricing per Tier - $ per month...................... 94

Table 4.2: Analysis of LTE Pricing Announcements - $
per month................ 94

4.2.2 Pricing Assumptions and Limitations......................... 94

Table 4.3: LTE Pricing Structure.................... 95

4.3 LTE Enterprise User Service Pricing................ 95

4.3.1 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Premium................. 95

Figure 4.5: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Premium
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 96

Table 4.4: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Premium
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......... 96

4.3.2 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Top Tier................ 96

Figure 4.6: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Top
Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 96

Table 4.5: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Top Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......... 97

4.3.3 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Mid Tier........................ 97

Figure 4.7: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Mid
Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 97

Table 4.6: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Mid Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 98

4.3.4 LTE Enterprise Pricing: Low Tier.................... 98

Figure 4.8: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Low
Tier Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........... 98

Table 4.7: LTE Enterprise Service Pricing ($) Low Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......... 99

4.4 LTE Consumer User Service Pricing................. 99

4.4.1 LTE Consumer Pricing: Premium................. 99

Figure 4.9: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Premium
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......... 99

Table 4.8: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Premium
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....... 100

4.4.2 LTE Consumer Pricing: Top Tier................. 100

Figure 4.10: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Top Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 100

Table 4.9: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Top Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....... 101

4.4.3 LTE Consumer Pricing: Mid Tier........................... 101

Figure 4.11: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Mid Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 101

Table 4.10: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Mid Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016..... 102

4.4.4 LTE Consumer Pricing: Low Tier....................... 102

Figure 4.12: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Low Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...... 102

Table 4.11: LTE Consumer Service Pricing ($) Low Tier
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.... 103

4.5 Usage Adoption Scenarios................. 103

Table 4.12: LTE Usage Scenarios.................. 103

LTE Business Model: Scenario 1 ‘Average’

5.1 Service Revenues........... 105

5.1.1 Enterprise Revenues...................... 105

Figure 5.1: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast
($m) Split by 8 Key Regions  2011-2016.................... 106

Table 5.1: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast
($m) Split by 8 Key Regions  2011-2016...................... 106

5.1.2 Consumer Revenues.................... 106

Figure 5.2: Scenario 1 LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast
($m) Split by 8 Key Regions  2011-2016................... 107

Table 5.2: Scenario 1 LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast
($m) Split by 8 Key Regions  2011-2016...................... 107

5.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues.................. 107

Figure 5.3: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise and Consumer
Revenue Forecast ($m)  Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016..................... 107

Table 5.3: Scenario 1 LTE Enterprise and Consumer Revenue
Forecast ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2015................... 108

Figure 5.4: Scenario 1 Global Revenue Forecast (%
share)  Split by LTE Enterprise and
Consumer 2011-2016...................... 108

Table 5.4: Scenario 1 Global Revenue Forecast (%
share)  Split by LTE Enterprise and
Consumer 2011-2016..................... 109

5.2 Blended ARPU............. 109

Figure 5.5: Scenario 1 LTE Blended Enterprise and
Consumer ARPU Forecast ($)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016....................... 109

Table 5.5: Scenario 1 LTE Blended Enterprise and
Consumer ARPU Forecast ($)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016.......................... 110

LTE Business Model: Scenario 2 ‘Power’

6.1 Usage Adoption Profiles.................... 112

6.1.1 Enterprise Users............... 112

Figure 6.1: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise
Adoption Profile Summary: Global  (% of
LTE users) 2011-2016................. 112

Table 6.1: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Adoption
Profile Summary: Global  (% of LTE users)
2011-2016.................... 113

6.1.2 Consumer Users................. 113

Figure 6.2: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Adoption
Profile Summary: Global  (% of LTE users)
2011-2016.................. 114

Table 6.2: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Adoption
Profile Summary: Global  (% of LTE users)
2011-2016................... 114

6.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer Users..................... 114

Figure 6.3: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016................... 114

Table 6.3: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016........... 115

6.2 Service Revenues................. 115

6.2.1 Enterprise Revenues................... 115

Figure 6.4: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by Tier 2011-2016................... 115

Table 6.4: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016..................... 116

Figure 6.5: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues (%)  Split by Tier 2011-2016....................... 116

Table 6.5: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016................... 116

Figure 6.6: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016.......................... 117

Table 6.6: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016...................... 117

Figure 6.7: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016...................... 118

Table 6.7: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise Global
Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016..................... 118

6.2.2 Consumer Revenues................................ 118

Figure 6.8: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by Tier 2011-2016...................... 118

Table 6.8: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016....................... 119

Figure 6.9: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016......................... 119

Table 6.9: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016....................... 119

Figure 6.10: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016.................. 120

Table 6.10: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016...................... 120

Figure 6.11: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016............................. 121

Table 6.11: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016.......................... 121

6.2.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues...................... 121

Figure 6.12: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m)  Split by
Tier 2011-2016...................... 121

Table 6.12: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m)  Split by
Tier 2011-2016................... 122

Figure 6.13: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by
Tier 2011-2016......................... 122

Table 6.13: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by
Tier 2011-2016..................... 123

Figure 6.14: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 123

Table 6.14: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016...............124

Figure 6.15: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016................. 124

Table 6.15: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 125

6.3 ARPU....................... 125

6.3.1 Enterprise ARPU......................... 125

Figure 6.16: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise ARPU ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 125

Table 6.16: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise ARPU
($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 126

6.3.2 Consumer ARPU................... 126

Figure 6.17: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer ARPU
($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........................ 127

Table 6.17: Scenario 2 Power User - Consumer ARPU
($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........................ 127

6.3.3 Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU........................ 128

Figure 6.18: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Blended ARPU ($m)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016.................. 128

Table 6.18: Scenario 2 Power User - Enterprise and
Consumer Blended ARPU ($m)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 128

LTE Business Model: Scenario 3 ‘Low - Mid’

7.1 Usage Adoption Profiles.................. 129

7.1.1 Enterprise Users.................. 129

Figure 7.1: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise
Adoption Profile Summary:  Global (% of
LTE users) 2011-2016.................. 129

Table 7.1: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise
Adoption Profile Summary:  Global (% of
LTE users) 2011-2016...................130

7.1.2 Consumer Users................ 130

Figure 7.2: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer
Adoption Profile Summary:  Global (% of
LTE users) 2011-2016...................... 130

Table 7.2: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Adoption
Profile Summary:  Global (% of LTE users)
2011-2016...................... 131

7.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer Users.................... 131

Figure 7.3: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016.................. 131

Table 7.3: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Adoption Profile Summary: Global (% of LTE users) 2011-2016............. 132

7.2 Service Revenues................ 132

7.2.1 Enterprise Revenues..................... 132

Figure 7.4: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise
Global Revenues  Split by Tier ($m)
2011-2016..........................132

Table 7.4: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global
Revenues  Split by Tier ($m) 2011-2016................................ 133

Figure 7.5: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise
Global Revenues  Split by Tier (%)
2011-2016....................... 133

Table 7.5: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global
Revenues Split by Tier (%) 2011-2016.................. 134

Figure 7.6: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise
Global Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key
Regions  2011-2016................... 134

Table 7.6: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016....................... 135

Figure 7.7: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise
Global Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016.................... 135

Table 7.7: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise Global
Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016......................... 136

7.2.2 Consumer Revenues........................ 136

Figure 7.8: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by Tier 2011-2016..................... 136

Table 7.8: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by Tier 2011-2016...................... 137

Figure 7.9: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%)  Split by Tier 2011-2016.................... 137

Table 7.9: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%) Split by Tier 2011-2016.................. 138

Figure 7.10: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016...................... 138

Table 7.10: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues ($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016..................... 139

Figure 7.11: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016........................ 139

Table 7.11: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer Global
Revenues (%)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016..................... 140

7.2.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues..................... 140

Figure 7.12: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by Tier 2011-2016...................... 140

Table 7.12: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m)  Split by
Tier 2011-2016........................ 141

Figure 7.13: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by
Tier 2011-2016......................... 141

Table 7.13: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by
Tier 2011-2016..................... 141

Figure 7.14: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............... 142

Table 7.14: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues ($m)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016........................... 142

Figure 7.15: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016................ 143

Table 7.15: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Global Revenues (%)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 143

7.3 ARPU.................... 143

7.3.1 Enterprise ARPU.................. 143

Figure 7.16: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise ARPU
($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.................... 143

Table 7.16: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise
ARPU($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2011-2016....................... 144

7.3.2 Consumer ARPU.................... 144

Figure 7.17: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer ARPU
($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......................... 145

Table 7.17: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Consumer ARPU
($m)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.......................... 145

7.3.3 Enterprise and Consumer Blended ARPU.................. 145

Figure 7.18: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Blended ARPU ($m)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016................ 146

Table 7.18: Scenario 3 Low-Mid User - Enterprise and
Consumer Blended ARPU ($m)  Split by 8
Key Regions 2011-2016............... 146

.

Scenario Comparisons and Conclusions

8.1 Global Service Revenues............................... 147

8.1.1 Enterprise........................... 147

Figure 8.1: Global LTE Enterprise Service Revenue
Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016........ 147

Table 8.1: Global LTE Enterprise Service Revenue
Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016....... 147

8.1.2 Consumer..................... 148

Figure 8.2: Global LTE Consumer Service Revenue
Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016........ 148

Table 8.2: Global LTE Consumer Service Revenue
Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016...... 148

8.1.3 Enterprise and Consumer........................ 149

Figure 8.3: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Service
Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016................... 149

Table 8.3: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Service
Revenue Scenario Comparison ($m) 2011-2016...................... 149

8.2 ARPU........................... 149

8.2.1 Enterprise..................... 149

Figure 8.4: Global LTE Enterprise ARPU Scenario
Comparison ($) 2011-2016................... 150

Table 8.4: Global LTE Enterprise ARPU Scenario
Comparison ($) 2011-2016............................ 150

8.2.2 Consumers.......................... 150

Figure 8.5: Global LTE Consumer ARPU Scenario
Comparison ($) 2011-2016............................. 150

Table 8.5: Global LTE Consumer ARPU Scenario
Comparison ($) 2011-2016............................ 151

8.2.3 Blended Enterprise and Consumer.......................... 151

Figure 8.6: Global LTE Blended Enterprise and Consumer
ARPU Scenario Comparison  ($) 2011-2016....................... 151

Table 8.6: Global LTE Blended Enterprise and Consumer
ARPU Scenario Comparison  ($) 2011-2016........................ 152

8.3 Conclusions................. 152

Spectrum Costs & Capex Analysis

9.1 Spectrum Costs.......................... 155

9.2 Analysis: Western Europe....................... 156

9.2.1 Spectrum Cost Analysis................... 156

Table 9.1: Western Europe Spectrum Band Auction, October 2011.................. 157

Figure 9.1: Western Europe - LTE Service Revenue ($m) Scenario Comparison........................... 158

Table 9.2: Western Europe - LTE Service Revenue ($m) Scenario Comparison.......................... 158

9.2.2 Infrastructure Cost Analysis........................ 159

Figure 9.2: Infrastructure Cost ($m) Analysis for Western Europe.................. 159

Table 9.3: Infrastructure Cost ($m) Analysis for Western Europe..................... 159

9.2.3 Operational Cost & LTE Service Revenue Comparison................. 160

Figure 9.3 Operational Cost vs. Scenario based LTE Service Revenue ($m) for Western Europe 2011-2016............. 160

Table 9.4 Operational Cost vs. Scenario based LTE Service Revenue ($m)  for Western Europe 2011-2016..................... 160

9.2.4 Cumulative Net Cash Flow Analysis.............. 161

Figure 9.4: Cumulative Net Cash Flow Analysis for Western Europe ($bn) 2011-2016............... 161

Table 9.5: Cumulative Net Cash Flow Analysis for Western Europe ($bn) 2011-2016.............. 162

Companies Referenced

ADC, Alcatel-Lucent, Aricent, AT & T Mobility, Bytemobile, Cambridge Broadband Networks, Cambridge Consultants, China Mobile, Cognovo, Comptel, Empirix, Ericsson, Etisalat, France Telecom Orange, Funambol, Huawei,  InfiNet Wireless, SingTel, Kineto Wireless, MACH, MetroPCS, Motorola, Nimbuzz,  Nokia Siemens Networks, NTT DoCoMo, Picochip,  Samsung, Syniverse, Telecom Italia, TeliaSonera, Telstra, TM Forum, Ucell, UMTS Forum, Verizon Wireless, VivaCell-MTS, Vodafone, Volantis, Volubil, Yota, Zain