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4G LTE Strategies

4G LTE Strategies

Subscribers, Devices, Infrastructure & Service Revenue 2013-2017

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 13/02/2013
Category: Networks & Technologies
Coverage: Global - 8 Key Regions ◊
 

Overview

  • Over 40 Pages of Forecasts
  • Active LTE subscriber forecasts
  • Spectrum Strategies & Cost Analysis
  • LTE Market Update by Region

 A fully comprehensive guide to the 4G LTE market, this fourth edition of Juniper’s report charts the immediate and anticipated opportunities in the LTE market, providing a strategic evaluation of the LTE business models for revenue generation.  The report includes an updated set of forecasts, ecosystem breakdown, key market drivers & hurdles along with spectrum strategies and technology analysis.

What this Report Covers?

Vendor Matrix – Covering 8 Key Players

Readers can learn from expert analysis and strategic recommendations supported by interviews with, and commentaries from, key players in the ecosystem drawn together in a vendor matrix. Fifteen LTE commercially launched networks drawn from eight key regions are profiled and assessed by their various stages of development within the 4G industry.

Detailed Investigation of Drivers and Constraints

The key market drivers and constraints are discussed in addition to an assessment of operator deployments over the past 12 months i.e. trial, commercial and planned networks.   

Spectrum Strategies

An in-depth analysis of spectrum selection and operator strategies is provided alongside an exhaustive deliberation of the cost challenges confronting MNOs, with an extensive spectrum cost analysis on Western Europe. 

Service Revenues and Price analysis

Readers will receive a systematic evaluation of service pricing, blended ARPU and billed revenues, calculated for both the enterprise and consumer market. 

Market Forecasts

The updated forecasts are split by 8 key regions as well as by consumer and enterprise markets.  They include:

  • Active LTE subscriber forecasts (split by technology - TD-LTE & FD-LTE)
  • Connected chipset & end user device market
  • Base station markets (split by compact and macro base station)

 Country level forecasts for Canada, US, Germany, UK, Japan, South Korea and India are available in the Interactive Forecast Excel.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1 Introduction to the LTE Market

1.1 LTE and LTE Advanced Objectives
1.2 LTE Advanced Market Update
1.3 LTE Market Ecosystem
Figure 1.1: LTE Ecosystem
1.3.1 Equipment Manufacturers & Suppliers
Table 1.1: Equipment Manufacture and Suppliers Industry Commercial Contracts
1.3.2 End User Device Vendors
Figure 1.2: Available LTE User Device Products (November 2012)
i. Smartphones: Apple and Samsung
Figure 1.3: Apple iPhone 5
ii. Femtocell: DOCOMO
Figure 1.4: NTT DOCOMO Dual Mode 3G/LTE Femtocell
1.3.3 Service/Application Providers
1.3.4 Mobile Network Operators
1.4 Spectrum for LTE Deployments
1.4.1 Available LTE Spectrum
Figure 1.5: LTE Spectrum Bands
Table 1.2: LTE FDD and TDD Spectrum Bands
Table 1.3: Global LTE Spectrum Band Availability for Mobile Operators
1.4.2 Spectrum Refarming

2 4G LTE Market Status

Figure 2.1: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches
2.1 North America
2.1.1 Verizon Wireless: USA
Figure 2.2: Verizon Wireless USA 4G Market Map
2.1.2 AT&T Mobility
Figure 2.3: AT&T LTE Coverage Map
2.2 Latin America
2.2.1 América Móvil
2.2.2 Telefonica Latin America
2.3 Western Europe
2.3.1 TeliaSonera Norway & Sweden
2.3.2 EE UK
2.3.3 Telecom Italia
2.3.4 France Telecom Orange
Figure 2.4: France Telecom Orange LTE Deployment Timeline
2.4 Central & Eastern Europe
2.4.1 Yota Russia
2.5 Far East & China
2.5.1 NTT DOCOMO Japan
2.5.2 China Mobile
2.6 Indian Subcontinent
2.7 Rest of Asia Pacific
2.7.1 SingTel Singapore
2.8 Africa & Middle East
2.8.1 Etisalat UAE
2.8.2 MTS and Ucell Uzbekistan
2.9 Analysis and Conclusion
2.9.1 LTE Network Commitments to Date
Figure 2.5: LTE Network Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (Number of MNOs) January 2013
Table 2.1: LTE Network Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (Number of MNOs) January 2013
2.9.2 Spectrum Availability & Cost Analysis
i. Spectrum Costs
ii. Analysis: Western Europe
Table 2.2: Western Europe Spectrum Band Auction as at December 2012

3 Market Drivers & Hurdles

3.1 LTE Market Drivers
3.1.1 The 'Stay Connected' Trend
3.1.2 Widespread Industry Support
3.1.3 Mobile Data Traffic Growth
3.1.4 Decline of ARPU
Figure 3.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012 2017
Table 3.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012 2017
3.1.5 New Service and Revenue Opportunities
Table 3.2: LTE New Services - Juniper Research Interview Responses
3.1.6 New Connected Devices
3.1.7 Improved User Experience & Seamless Connectivity
3.1.8 Technical Advantages
3.2 The Hurdles Facing LTE
3.2.1 Right Economics to Encourage Service Usage at a Value
3.2.2 Devices: Availability & Growing Diversity
i. Device Availability
ii. Growing Diversity and Device Challenge
Figure 3.2: iPad WiFi & 4G Model in Australia
3.2.3 Lack of Voice Support
3.2.4 Spectrum: When and How Much?
3.2.5 Backhaul Capacity Requirements

4 LTE Subscriber, Device & Infrastructure Forecasts

4.1 Methodology and Assumptions
Figure 4.1: LTE Market Forecast Methodology
4.2 Cellular Market Growth
Figure 4.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 4.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
4.3 4G LTE Subscriber Forecasts
4.3.1 Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Figure 4.3: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 4.2: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
4.3.2 Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Figure 4.4: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2012 2017
Table 4.3: Global LTE Enterprise and Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2012 2017
4.4 LTE Market Forecasts: Network Access Devices and Chipsets
4.4.1 Future of the SIM Card
4.4.2 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise Subscribers
Figure 4.5: LTE Enterprise Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.4: LTE Enterprise Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
4.4.3 LTE Network Access Forecast: Consumer Subscribers
Figure 4.6: LTE Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.5: LTE Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
4.4.4 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers
Figure 4.7 LTE Enterprise & Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.6: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
4.5 LTE Chipsets Forecast
4.5.1 LTE Chipset Availability
4.5.2 LTE Chipset Annual Shipment Forecast
Figure 4.8: Chipset Shipment Churn Assumption Curve
Figure 4.9: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipments (m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.7: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipments (m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Figure 4.10: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipment Forecast Mix (%) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.8: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipment Forecast Mix (%) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
4.5.3 LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast
Figure 4.11: LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast ($) 2012 2017
Table 4.9: LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast ($) 2012 2017
4.5.4 LTE Chipset Market Revenue Forecast
Figure 4.12: LTE Chipset Revenues ($m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.10: LTE Chipset Revenues ($m pa) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
4.6 Device Types
4.6.1 Forecast Devices Defined
Figure 4.13: LTE Device Introduction Timeline
4.6.2 New Connected Devices
4.6.3 Enterprise End User Devices
Figure 4.14: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.11: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
4.6.4 Consumer End User Devices
Figure 4.15: Connected LTE Enabled Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
Table 4.12: Connected LTE Enabled Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
4.6.5 Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices
Figure 4.16: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
Table 4.13: Connected LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
4.6.6 LTE Enterprise End User Device Shipments
Figure 4.17: LTE Enterprise End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers and Femtocells) 2012 2017
Table 4.14: LTE Enterprise End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers & Femtocells) 2012 2017
4.6.7 LTE Consumer End User Shipments
Figure 4.18: LTE Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
Table 4.15: LTE Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
4.6.8 LTE Enterprise and Consumer End User Shipments
Figure 4.19: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
Table 4.16: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Device Shipments (m) Split by Device Type (Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles and Cameras, MP3s & Consumer Devices) 2012 2017
4.7 LTE Base Station Forecast
4.7.1 LTE Base Station Deployments
Figure 4.20: Total Number of LTE Enabled Base Stations Deployed (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 4.17: Total Number of LTE Enabled Base Stations Deployed (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
4.7.2 LTE Base Station Shipments
Figure 4.21: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 4.18: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Figure 4.22: LTE Enabled Macro Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 4.19: LTE Enabled Macro Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Figure 4.23: LTE Enabled Compact-Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 4.20: LTE Enabled Compact-Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments (000') Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
4.7.3 Base Station Service Revenue
Figure 4.24: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Service Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 4.21: LTE Enabled Base Station (eNodeB) Service Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017

5 LTE Service Revenue Forecasts

5.1 Pricing Assumptions and Limitations
5.2 LTE User Service Pricing
5.2.1 LTE Enterprise Pricing
Figure 5.1: LTE Enterprise Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 5.1: LTE Enterprise Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
5.2.2 LTE Consumer Pricing
Figure 5.2: LTE Consumer Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 5.2: LTE Consumer Average Service Pricing ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
5.3 Service Revenues
5.3.1 Enterprise Revenues
Figure 5.3: LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 5.3: LTE Enterprise Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
5.3.2 Consumer Revenues
Figure 5.4: LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 5.4: LTE Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
5.3.3 Enterprise and Consumer Revenues
Figure 5.5: LTE Enterprise & Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 5.5: LTE Enterprise & Consumer Revenue Forecast ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Figure 5.6: Global Revenue Forecast (% share) Split by LTE Enterprise and Consumer 2012 2017
Table 5.6: Global Revenue Forecast (% share) Split by LTE Enterprise and Consumer 2012 2017
Figure 5.7: LTE Service Revenue as a Proportion of Global Operator Billed Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 5.7: LTE Service Revenue as a Proportion of Global Operator Billed Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
5.4 Blended ARPU
Figure 5.8: Blended Enterprise & Consumer LTE ARPU Forecast ($)Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017
Table 5.8: Blended Enterprise & Consumer LTE ARPU Forecast ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2012 2017

6 LTE Network Vendor Strategies

6.1 Vendor Analysis
6.1.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria
Table 6.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
6.1.2 Limitations and Interpretation
6.2 Vendor Positioning Matrix Results
6.2.1 Overall Matrix Position
Figure 6.1: Global LTE Network Vendor Positioning Matrix
6.2.2 Vendor Groupings
i. Summary
ii. On Track Vendors
iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
6.2.3 Competitive Dynamics
6.3 Alcatel Lucent
Figure 6.2: Alcatel Lucent LTE Solution
Figure 6.3: Alcatel Lucent ng Connect Program
6.4 Ericsson
Figure 6.4: Ericsson LTE/EPC Contracts
Figure 6.5: Ericsson Strategy & Progress 2010-2012
6.5 Fujitsu
Figure 6.6: Fujitsu Revenue Split by Segments: 2011-2012
Figure 6.7: Fujitsu LTE System
6.6 Huawei
Figure 6.8: Huawei Revenue Split by Segment 2011-2012
Figure 6.9: Huawei e2e LTE Solution
Figure 6.10: Huawei DBS3900 Series
6.7 NEC
Figure 6.11: NEC Revenue Split by Segment 2011-2012
Figure 6.12: NEC LTE Solution
6.8 Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN)
Figure 6.13: Nokia Revenue Split by Service Segments 2012
Table 6.2: NSN LTE Commercial Network Deals
Figure 6.14: Nokia Siemens Networks LTE Solution
6.9 ZTE
Figure 6.15: ZTE Revenue Split by Service Segments: 2011-2012
Figure 6.16: ZTE Uni-RAN Solution
6.10 Samsung
Figure 6.17: Samsung Revenue Split by Service Segments: 2011-2012

7 LTE Technologies Primer

7.1 Duplexing Techniques
7.1.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing)
Figure 7.1: Frequency Division Duplexing
7.1.2 TDD (Time Division Duplexing)
Figure 7.2: Time Division Duplexing
Figure 7.3: TDD LTE Spectrum Bands
Figure 7.4: FDD and TDD Comparison
7.2 LTE (Long Term Evolution)
7.2.1 3GPP Release 8: LTE & SAE
Figure 7.5: LTE Overview
Figure 7.6: LTE Release 8 Standardisation History
7.2.2 TD-LTE
7.3 3GPP Release 10: LTE Advanced
Figure 7.7: LTE Advanced System Performance Requirements
7.4 Technology Comparison
Table 7.1: Key Mobile Broadband Technology Parameter Comparisons

Companies Referenced

Profiled: Verizon Wireless, AT&T Mobility, América Móvil, Telefonica, Teliasonera, EE, Telecom Italia, FT Orange, Yota, NTT DOCOMO, China Mobile, SingTel, Ericsson, Etisalat, Fujitsu, MTS, Ucell, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, ZTE, Samsung

Mentioned: 3 Italia, 3G FOMA, 4DK Technologies Inc, A1, Aero2, Agri-Valley, Aircel, Al Madar, Alcatel Lucent, Altair Semiconductor, Alvarion, América Móvil, Apple, ARCEP (French Regulator), ARPU, Asus, AT&T, Atlantic, Audi, Augere, Azerfon, BBC, BelgaCom, Bell Canada, Bharti Airtel, BITE, BSNL, BT, Buzz Media, Buzznet, C Spire Wireless, Cell C, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, chumby, Claro, Clearwire, Connect2Media, Cota Spain, Danish National and IT Agency, Deutsche Telekom, Dialog Broadband Networks (DBN), dimedis, Dish, DNA, Du, eAccess, EE, Elisa, E-Plus, Ericsson, Etisalat, Face.com, Facebook, FISHLABS, France Telecom Orange, Fujitsu, Technology Solutions, Game Streamer, Gate, Gemalto, Global Holding Corporation, Globe Telecom, GSA (Global Mobile Suppliers Association), H3G, HP (Hewlett Packard), Hrvatski Telekom Croatia, HTC, Huawei , Hutchison 3, Infotel Broadband Services, Intamac, ISP (Internet Service Provider),  ITU, Kabillion, KDDI Japan, King Street Wireless, Korea Telecom, KPN, Kyocera, LearningMate, LGU+ , LightSquared, LMT, M1, MACH, Maxis, Media Tile, MegaFon, MetroPCS, Mobily, Mobyland Poland, Mosaic Telecom, Movicel Angola, Movistar, MTN, MTNL , MTS, NBN (National Broadband Network), NEC, Net4Mobility, NetAmerica Alliance, Nokia Siemens, NSN - Nokia Siemens Network, NTT DOCOMO, O2 (Telefónica UK), Ofcom, Omnitel, Open Mobile, Optimus, Optus, Orange, PCCW, Polkomtel, Portugal Telecom, PTS, Qualcomm, Rebel Vox, Reliance India, RIL (Reliance Industries Limited), Rogers Wireless, Rostelcom, Samsung, SFR, Shaw Communications, Si.mobil, SIGNEXX, SingTel, SK Telecom, Smart, Smartone Hong Kong, SoftBank Japan, Sprint, Starent Networks. , StarHub, STC, Telcel, Tele2, Telecom Germany, Telecom Italia, Telecom New Zealand, Telefonica, Telekom Austria Group's,  Telekom Slovenije, Telenor, Telesis Tanzania, TeliaSonera, Telkomsel, Telstra, Telus Canada, Three UK, Tikona Digital Networks Pvt. Ltd, TIM, T-Mobile, Toshiba, Total Immersion, Tulip Telecom, TuneWiki, Twitter, U Mobile, U.S. Cellular, Ucell, UNE, Verizon Wireless, VimpelCom, Vipnet, Vivo, Vodafone, Wind, Words & Numbers, Yota Russia, Zain Bahrain, Zain KSA, ZTE Corporation

 

Extra Info

◊ 8 key regions includes:

North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Subcontinent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

Prices

Please note: This product is not available to be purchased individually, or it may have been superceded.
Please see: 4G LTE: Subscribers, Smartphones, Base Stations & Service Revenue 2014-2019

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Key Questions

1. How is the LTE market ecosystem developing and what are the key drivers and hurdles for LTE?

2. What is the LTE mobile broadband subscriber take-up each year, by country, region, segment & technology?

3. What is the market for enterprise and consumer segments?

4. What are the strategies of leading mobile network operators for implementing LTE?

5. How has the LTE device ecosystem developed over the past 12 months?

6. What are the volumes of connected LTE end user devices, LTE chipsets annual shipments and LTE base station shipments (macro and compact)?

7. What are the likely ARPU levels achievable for enterprise and consumer LTE users?

Any Questions about this report please contact us.

 

Related Reports:

The 4G LTE Strategies Briefing 2013-2017, 4G LTE Strategies IFxl 2013-2017

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