4G LTE Opportunities

Overview

•   LTE Technology Assessment

•   Matrix of Nine Major LTE Vendors

•   74 Unique Forecast Tables

This study charts the opportunity - both immediate and anticipated - to be seized by vendors, MNOs and regulators in a bid to be among the first to offer the next generation mobile broadband. Readers of the full report will gain unsurpassed insight of the development route of this technology, based on current and forecast LTE subscriber numbers, hardware shipments and regional operator status. The potential revenues and improved user experience as well as the prospect of enhanced data capacity is expounded in depth; no less are the factors inhibiting widespread LTE adoption, such as initial investment costs and limited device availability, investigated and resolved.

Juniper Research customers will receive a systematic evaluation of the scope for LTE and LTE-Advanced deployment across the range of frequency bands and bandwidths, as well as detailed descriptions of the ways in which existing spectrums are being ‘refarmed' for LTE networks. An exclusive vendor matrix offers key insight into the strategies of nine major LTE network providers.

In addition, Juniper delivers a cutting edge LTE ecosystem analysis, which covers important members in the ecosystem, key market updates and performance parameters for LTE and LTE-Advanced. Finally, four exhaustive chapters of forecasts within this renewed report present readers with projected figures for the LTE subscriber, chipset, end user device and base station markets.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

LTE Market Status

1.1 Introduction....................................... 21

1.2 LTE & LTE Advanced Objectives............. 21

1.3 LTE-Advanced Market Update................... 22

1.4 LTE Market Ecosystem................ 23

Figure 1.1: LTE Ecosystem................................................. 23

1.4.1 Equipment Manufacturers & Suppliers................ 23

Table 1.1:
Equipment Manufacture & Suppliers Industry Commercial Contracts............................ 24

1.4.2 End User Device Vendors.......... 24

Figure 1.2: Available LTE User Device Products (July
2011)............ 25

i. Samsung - Smartphones......................... 25

Figure 1.3: Samsung Droid Charge SCH-i510 LTE Device..................... 25

ii. Huawei - USB Modems............................................ 26

Figure 1.4: Huawei E398 USB Modem......................... 26

1.4.3 Service/ Application Providers................ 26

i. ng Connect Program - Alcatel Lucent..................... 26

Figure 1.5: ng Connect Program................................ 27

1.4.4 Mobile Network Operators................ 27

1.5 LTE Market Drivers............................... 27

1.5.1 Mobile Broadband Trends............... 28

Figure 1.6: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle................. 28

1.5.2 Widespread Industry Support.................. 29

Figure 1.7: LTE Operator Commitments (October 2011)........ 29

1.5.3 Mobile Data Traffic Growth............... 30

Figure 1.8: Verizon Wireless Network Challenges......... 30

Figure 1.9: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular
Network p.a. (PB)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2010-2015......... 31

Table 1.2: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular
Network p.a. (PB)  Split by 8 Key Regions
2010-2015............... 31

1.5.4 Decline of ARPU....................... 31

Figure 1.10: Base Line
Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service Revenues
2010-2016.................................... 32

Table 1.3: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber
Growth, ARPU  and Operator-Billed Service
Revenues 2010-2016................................................................... 32

Figure 1.11: The ‘Nightmare' Scenario:  Global MNO Service Revenues vs. CAPEX/OPEX
($bn) 2010-2016........................ 32

Table 1.4: The
‘Nightmare' Scenario:  Global MNO Service
Revenues vs. CAPEX/OPEX ($bn) 2010-2016.......................... 33

1.5.5 New Service and Revenue Opportunities........................ 33

Figure 1.12: LTE Enabled Applications........................... 33

Table 1.5: LTE
New Services - Juniper Research Interview Responses.............................................. 34

1.5.6 New Connected Devices........................ 34

Table 1.6: LTE
New Connected Devices - Juniper Research Interview Responses.......................... 35

1.5.7 Improved User Experience.................... 35

1.5.8 Technical Advantages...................... 35

1.6 The Hurdles Facing LTE.................... 36

1.6.1 Business Models and Service Monetisation................. 36

1.6.2 Devices................................ 37

i Device Availability................................ 37

ii Device Types............................... 37

Figure 1.13: LTE Device Introduction Timeline....... 38

iii Device Convergence and Development.................................... 38

1.6.3 Spectrum: When and How Much?................. 38

Figure 1.14: Digital
Dividend Spectrum Status............ 39

1.6.4 Backhaul
Capacity Requirements............... 39

Figure 1.15: Total Mobile Backhaul Bandwidth Capacity
Requirement (Gbps)  Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016........................... 40

Table 1.7:
Total Mobile Backhaul Bandwidth Capacity Requirement (Gbps)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 ....................... 40

LTE Subscriber Forecasts

2.1 Methodology............................. 41

2.1.1 Geographical Splits........................ 41

2.1.2 Methodology and Assumptions................ 42

Figure 2.1: LTE Market Forecast Methodology..................... 42

2.1.3 Technology Splits.................................... 43

2.2 Cellular Market Growth....................... 43

Figure 2.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2016.................. 44

Table 2.1:
Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016...................................... 44

Figure 2.3: Cellular Subscriber Base Market Share (%)
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............. 45

Table 2.2:
Mobile Subscriber Base (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016....................................... 45

Figure 2.4: Cellular Subscriber Penetration (%) Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016......................... 46

Table 2.3: Cellular
Subscriber Penetration (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016........................ 46

2.3 Regional Broadband and LTE Subscriber Forecasts................................... 47

2.3.1 MNO Strategies.......................... 47

2.3.2 North America............................... 47

Figure 2.5: North America LTE and HSPA & EVDO Revs
A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016................... 48

Table 2.4:
North America LTE and HSPA & EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband
Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................................... 48

Figure 2.6: North America LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 49

Table 2.5:
North America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m)
2011-2016..................................................... 49

2.3.3 Latin America........................... 49

Figure 2.7: North America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A
& B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.................................. 50

Table 2.6:
Latin America LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers
(m) 2011-2016................................................... 50

Figure 2.8: Latin America LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016............................. 50

Table 2.7:
Latin America LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m)
2011-2016............................................. 51

2.3.4 Western Europe............................. 51

Figure 2.9: Western Europe LTE and HSPA Mobile
Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016......... 51

Table 2.8: Western
Europe LTE and HSPA Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 52

Figure 2.10: Western Europe LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................... 52

Table 2.9:
Western Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m)
2011-2016................................... 52

2.3.5 Central and Eastern Europe............................... 53

Figure 2.11: Central and Eastern Europe LTE HSPA and
EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 53

Table 2.10:
Central and Eastern Europe LTE HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband
Subscribers (m) 2011-2016............................................. 54

Figure 2.12: Central and Eastern Europe LTE Enterprise
& Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016....................... 54

Table 2.11:
Central and Eastern Europe LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband
Subscribers (m) 2011-2016......................................... 54

2.3.6 Far East & China........................... 55

Figure 2.13: Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 55

Table 2.12:
Far East & China LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband
Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.......................................................... 56

Figure 2.14: Far East & China LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016............................. 56

Table 2.13:
Far East & China LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers
(m) 2011-2016.............................................. 56

2.3.7 Indian Subcontinent............................... 57

Figure 2.15: Indian Subcontinent LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016.............................. 57

Table 2.14:
Indian Subcontinent LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband
Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................................................ 57

Figure 2.16: Indian Subcontinent LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 58

Table 2.15:
Indian Subcontinent LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers
(m) 2011-2016........................... 58

2.3.8 Rest of Asia Pacific.................................. 58

Figure 2.17: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO
Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 59

Table 2.16:
Rest of Asia Pacific LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers
(m) 2011-2016........................... 59

Figure 2.18: Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise &
Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 60

Table 2.17:
Rest of Asia Pacific LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers
(m) 2011-2016........................... 60

2.3.9 Africa & Middle East........................ 60

Figure 2.19 Africa & Middle East LTE, HSPA and
EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 61

Table 2.18:
Africa & Middle East LTE, HSPA and EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband
Subscribers (m) 2011-2016...........................  61

Figure 2.20: Africa & Middle East LTE Enterprise
& Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 61

Table 2.19:
Africa & Middle East LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband
Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 62

2.3.10 Global........................................... 62

Figure 2.21: Global LTE and HSPA & EVDO Revs A
& B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 62

Table 2.20:
Global LTE and HSPA & EVDO Revs A & B Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m)
2011-2016........................... 62

Figure 2.22: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016.............................63

Table 2.21:
Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016...........................63

Figure 2.23: Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer
Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 
2011-2016........................... 64

Table 2.22:
Global LTE Enterprise & Consumer Mobile Broadband Subscribers (m) 2011-2016........................... 64

Figure 2.24: Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers
Added p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions (m) 2011-2016...........................64

Table 2.23:
Global LTE Mobile Broadband Subscribers Added p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions (m)
2011-2016........................... 65

LTE Market Forecasts: Network Access Devices & Chipsets

3.1 Future of the SIM Card................................. 67

3.2 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise Subscribers............................ 68

Figure 3.1: Sierra Wireless AirPrime MC7700 LTE Module.............................. 68

Figure 3.2: Typical LTE Card/Dongle Implementation.......................................... 68

Figure 3.3: LTE Enterprise Subscriber SIMs (m) Split
by Network Access Device Type: Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile
Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016......................... 69

Table 3.1: LTE
Enterprise Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type: Handsets,
Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016..................................................... 69

Figure 3.4: LTE Enterprise Subscriber SIMs Market
Segmentation Mix (%)  Split by Handsets,
Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016........................ 70

Table 3.2: LTE
Enterprise Subscriber SIMs Market Segmentation Mix (%)  Split by Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded,
Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016.............................. 70

3.3 LTE Network Access Forecast: Consumer Subscribers............................ 70

Figure 3.5: LTE Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by
Network Access Device Type: Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers
& Femtocells 2011-2016.............................. 71

Table 3.3: LTE
Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type: Handsets,
Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016................................................... 71

Figure 3.6: LTE Consumer Subscriber SIMs Market
Segmentation Mix (%)  Split by Handsets,
Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016............................................. 72

Table 3.4: LTE
Consumer Subscriber SIMs Market Segmentation Mix (%)  Split by Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded,
Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016................................. 72

3.4 LTE Network Access Forecast: Enterprise & Consumer Subscribers... 73

Figure 3.7: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Subscriber
SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device Type: Handsets, Dongles, Cards,
Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016...................... 73

Table 3.5: LTE
Enterprise and Consumer Subscriber SIMs (m) Split by Network Access Device
Type: Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells
2011-2016...................... 73

Figure 3.8: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Subscriber
SIMs Market Segmentation Mix (%) Split by Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded,
Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016.................................. 74

Table 3.6: LTE
Enterprise and Consumer Subscriber SIMs Market Segmentation Mix (%) Split by
Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016.................................................. 74

3.5 LTE Chipsets Forecast................................. 75

3.5.1 LTE Chipset Availability......................... 75

3.5.2 LTE Chipset Annual Shipment Forecast.................................. 76

Figure 3.9: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset
Shipments (m. pa)  Split by Network
Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers &
Femtocells) 2011-2016......................... 76

Table 3.7: LTE
Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipments (m. pa)  Split by Network Access Device Type
(Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells) 2011-2016................................... 76

Figure 3.10: LTE Enterprise and Consumer Chipset
Shipment Forecast Mix (%)  Split by
Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers
& Femtocells) 2011-2016...................... 77

Table 3.8: LTE
Enterprise and Consumer Chipset Shipment Forecast Mix (%)  Split by Network Access Device Type
(Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells) 2011-2016............................................. 77

3.5.3 LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast.................... 78

Figure 3.11: LTE Chipset Pricing Forecast ($)
2011-2016....................................... 78

Table 3.9: LTE
Chipset Pricing Forecast ($) 2011-2016.............................................. 78

3.5.4 LTE Chipset Market Revenue Forecast................................................................... 79

Figure 3.12: LTE Chipset Revenues ($m p.a.) Split by
Network Access Device Type (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers
& Femtocells) 2011-2016................................... 79

Table 3.10:
LTE Chipset Revenues ($m p.a.) Split by Network Access Device Type (Handsets,
Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells) 2011-2016............................................. 79

Figure 3.13: LTE Chipset Revenues (%) Split by Network
Access Device Type  (Handsets, Dongles,
Cards, Embedded, Mobile Routers & Femtocells) 2016........................................ 80

Table 3.11:
LTE Chipset Revenues (%) Split by Network Access Device Type  (Handsets, Dongles, Cards, Embedded, Mobile
Routers & Femtocells) 2016............................................................ 80

LTE End User Devices Forecast

4.1 Device Types.................................. 81

4.1.1 Forecasted Devices............................... 81

Table 4.1:
HSPA Enabled Devices................................... 82

Figure 4.1: LTE Device Introduction Timeline.......................... 83

4.1.2 New Connected Devices....................................... 83

4.2 Enterprise End User Devices...................... 84

Figure 4.2: LTE Enabled Enterprise End User Devices
Split by Type: Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers &
Femtocells (m.) Connected 2011-2016........................... 84

Table 4.2: LTE
Enabled Enterprise End User Devices Split by Type: Smartphones, Laptops,
Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers & Femtocells (m.) Connected 2011-2016......................... 84

Figure 4.3: LTE Enabled Enterprise End User Devices
Forecast Mix (%) Split by Device Type: Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets,
Mobile Routers & Femtocells 2011-2016................. 85

Table 4.3: LTE
Enabled Enterprise End User Devices Forecast Mix (%) by Device Type:
Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers & Femtocells
2011-2016............................................... 85

4.3 Consumer End User Devices......................... 86

Figure 4.4: LTE Enabled Consumer End User Devices
Split by Type: Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers,
Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles 
& Consumer Devices (m.) Connected 2011-2016.............. 86

Table 4.4: LTE
Enabled Consumer End User Devices Split by Type: Smartphones, Laptops,
Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles  & Consumer Devices (m.) Connected
2011-2016.........................................................  86

Figure 4.5: LTE Enabled Enterprise End User Devices
Forecast Mix (%) Split by Device Type: Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets,
Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles & Consumer Devices
2011-2016......................................87

Table 4.5: LTE
Enabled Enterprise End User Devices Forecast Mix (%) Split by Device Type:
Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable
Games Consoles & Consumer Devices 2011-2016........................................87

4.4 Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices.......................... 88

Figure 4.6: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End
User Devices Split by Device Type: Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets,
Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles & Consumer Devices (m.)
Connected 2011-2016............................88

Table 4.6: LTE
Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices Split by Device Type:
Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable
Games Consoles & Consumer Devices (m.) Connected 2011-2016................................................... 88

Figure 4.7: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End
User Devices Forecast Mix (%)  Split by
Device Type: Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers,
Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles & Consumer Devices 2011-2016.............................................................89

Table 4.7: LTE
Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices Forecast Mix (%)  Split by Device Type: Smartphones, Laptops,
Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles &
Consumer Devices 2011-2016............................................................ 89

Figure 4.8: LTE Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End
User Devices Split by Device Type: Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets,
Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable Games Consoles & Consumer Devices 2016.......... 90

Table 4.8: LTE
Enabled Enterprise and Consumer End User Devices Split by Device Type:
Smartphones, Laptops, Netbooks, Tablets, Mobile Routers, Femtocells, Portable
Games Consoles & Consumer Devices 2016....................................................... 90

4.5 LTE Smartphones.................................. 91

Figure 4.9: Global LTE Smartphones (m. Connected)
2011-2016........................ 91

Table 4.9:
Global LTE Smartphones (m. Connected) 2011-2016....................................................... 91

Figure 4.10: Global LTE Smartphones Shipments (m)
2011-2016................................... 92

Table 4.10:
Global LTE Smartphones Shipments (m) 2011-2016....................................................... 92

4.6 LTE Laptops.......................................................... 92

Figure 4.11: Global LTE Laptops (m. Connected)
2011-2016.................................... 93

Table 4.11:
Global LTE Laptops (m. Connected) 2011-2016.............................................................. 93

Figure 4.12: Global LTE Laptops Shipments (m. pa)
2011-2016........................................... 93

Table 4.12:
Global LTE Laptops Shipments (m. pa) 2011-2016.......................................................... 94

4.7 LTE Netbooks.......................................... 94

4.7.1 Netbook
Specification and Status.................... 94

Table 4.13: Netbook Product Characteristics......................................................................................... 95

Figure 4.13: Samsung N150 LTE Netbook.......................................... 95

4.7.2 LTE Netbook Market Forecast.................................................... 96

Figure 4.14: Global LTE Netbooks (m. Connected)
2011-2016................................. 96

Table 4.14:
Global LTE Netbooks (m. Connected) 2011-2016........................................................... 96

Table 4.15:
Global LTE Netbooks Shipments (m. pa) 2011-2016...................................................... 97

4.8 LTE Tablets......................................... 97

4.8.1 Tablet Specification and Status..................................... 97

4.8.2 LTE Tablet Market Forecast.................................................. 97

Figure 4.16: HTC Jetstream AT&T LTE Tablet................................ 98

Figure 4.17: Global LTE Tablets (m. Connected)
2011-2016......................................... 98

Table 4.16:
Global LTE Tablets (m. Connected) 2011-2016............................................................... 98

Figure 4.18: Global LTE Tablets Shipments (m. pa)
2011-2016..................... 99

Table 4.17:
Global LTE Tablets Shipments (m. pa) 2011-2016........................................................... 99

4.9 LTE Portable Games Consoles.................................. 99

Figure 4.19: Sony PS Vista............................................... 99

Figure 4.20: Global LTE Enabled Portable Games
Consoles (m. Connected) 2011-2016............. 100

Table 4.18:
Global LTE Enabled Portable Games Consoles (m. Connected) 2011-2016......................................................  100

Figure 4.21: Global LTE Enabled Portable Games
Consoles Shipments (m. pa) 2011-2016......... 101

Table 4.19:
Global LTE Enabled Portable Games Consoles Shipments (m. pa) 2011-2016..................................................................101

4.10 Digital Cameras, MP3 Players & Other Consumer Devices................. 102

Figure 4.22: Samsung LTE Digital Camera......................................... 102

Figure 4.23: Global LTE Enabled Digital Cameras, MP3 Players
& Other Consumer Devices (m. Connected) 2011-2016..................................... 103

Table 4.20:
Global LTE Enabled Digital Cameras, MP3 Players & Other Consumer Devices
(m. Connected) 2011-2016........................................................103

Figure 4.24: Global LTE Enabled Digital Cameras, MP3
Players & Other Consumer Devices Shipments (m. pa) 2011-2016...................................... 103

Table 4.21:
Global LTE Enabled Digital Cameras, MP3 Players & Other Consumer Devices
Shipments (m. pa) 2011-2016........................................................ 104

4.11 Mobile Routers............................................. 104

Figure 4.25: Samsung 4G LTE Mobile Hotspot Router................................. 104

Figure 4.26: Netgear MBR1000 Router............................. 105

Figure 4.27: Global LTE Mobile Routers (m. Connected)
2011-2016............... 105

Table 4.22:
Global LTE Mobile Routers (m. Connected) 2011-2016.............................................. 105

Figure 4.28: Global LTE Mobile Routers Shipments (m)
2011-2016.................................... 106

Table 4.23:
Global LTE Mobile Routers Shipments (m) 2011-2016................................................. 106

4.12 Femtocells.............................................. 107

Figure 4.29: Global LTE Femtocells (m. Connected)
2011-2016......................... 107

Table 4.24:
Global LTE Femtocells (m. Connected) 2011-2016....................................................... 107

Figure 4.30: Global LTE Femtocells Shipments (m)
2011-2016....................................... 108

Table 4.25:
Global LTE Femtocells Shipments (m) 2011-2016......................................................... 108

LTE Base Station Forecast

5.1 LTE Base Station Deployments......................... 109

Figure 5.1 LTE Base Station
- RBS 6000.................................. 109

Figure 5.2: Total Number of
LTE Enabled Base Stations (m) Deployed 
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............................................110

Table 5.1: Total Number of LTE Enabled Base Stations (000') Deployed  Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016           110

5.2 LTE Base Station Shipments.......................... 111

Figure 5.3: LTE Enabled
Base Stations Shipments (000') Split by
8 Key Regions 2011-2016..................................... 111

Table 5.2: LTE Enabled Base Stations Shipments (000') Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016............................... 112

5.3 Base Station Service Revenue.......................... 112

Figure 5.4: LTE Enabled
Base Station Service Revenue ($m)  Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016.............................................112

Table 5.3: LTE Enabled Base Station Service Revenue ($m)
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 .....................................................113

LTE Operator Status

Figure 6.1: Number of
Network Commitments Comparison  (HSDPA,
HSUPA, HSPA+, LTE)................................... 115

6.1 North America................................................................. 116

6.1.1 Verizon
Wireless USA.......................................... 116

Figure 6.2: Verizon
Wireless USA 4G Market Map......................................................... 117

Table 6.1: Verizon Wireless 4G LTE Devices Example...................................................................... 117

6.1.2  AT&T Mobility.............................................. 117

i. LTE Strategy............................................................. 117

ii. LTE Commercial Launch.................................................... 118

Figure 6.3: AT&T LTE
Coverage Map.......................................... 118

6.2 Latin America............................................ 119

6.2.1 America Movil.................................................................... 119

6.3 Western Europe..................................................... 119

6.3.1 TeliaSonera Norway & Sweden.............................................. 120

Figure 6.4: Samsung LTE Modem Dongle.................................................... 120

6.3.2 Vodafone
Germany....................................................... 121

6.3.3 Telecom Italia................................................. 122

6.3.4 France Telecom
Orange.......................................... 122

i. LTE Strategy.............................................................................. 122

ii. LTE Field Test Parameters................................................. 123

Figure 6.5: Architecture of
the France Telecom Orange LTE EPC Trial Network.......................... 123

iii. LTE EPC Commercial Launch.......................... 124

Figure 6.6: France Telecom Orange LTE Deployment
Timeline................................... 125

6.3.5 Everything
Everywhere & O2, United Kingdom.................................................... 125

Figure 6.7: Everything
Everywhere and BT 4G LTE Broadband Trial Area Map............................. 125

6.4 Central & Eastern Europe................................. 126

6.4.1 Yota Russia........................................................ 126

6.5 Far East & China........................................ 127

6.5.1 NTT DoCoMo
Japan...................... 127

Figure 6.8: NTT DoCoMo
Super 3G (LTE) Timeplan....................................... 128

6.5.2 China Mobile...................................................... 129

6.6 Indian Subcontinent......................................... 129

6.7 Rest of Asia Pacific.............................. 130

6.7.1 Telstra
Australia.............................................. 130

Figure 6.9: Telstra 4G LTE
Mobile Broadband Dongle................................. 131

6.7.2 SingTel
Singapore....................................... 131

6.8 Africa & Middle East...................................... 132

6.8.1 VivaCell-MTS
Armenia............................... 132

6.8.2 Etisalat UAE...................................... 132

6.8.3 Zain Bahrain................................... 133

Table 6.2: Nokia Siemens Network: Zain, Bahrain LTE Solution
& Benefits................................... 133

6.8.4 MTS and Ucell Uzbekistan............................... 134

6.9 Analysis and Conclusion............................... 134

6.9.1 LTE Network
Commitments to Date............................. 134

Figure 6.10: LTE Network
Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions (Number of MNOs)  June 2011 ...............................................135

Table 6.3: LTE Network Commitments Split by 8 Key Regions
(Number of MNOs)  June 2011..................................................... 135

6.9.2 LTE Future
Launches by Country............................... 136

Figure 6.11: LTE Network
Launch Date by Country: 2009-2013 and Beyond................................ 136

6.10 Spectrum for LTE Deployments...................................... 137

Figure 6.12: LTE Potential Spectrum Bands.......................... 137

Table 6.4:
Global LTE Spectrum Band Availability for Mobile Operators....................................... 138

6.10.1 Spectrum Refarming....................................................... 138

Table 6.5:
Spectrum Refarming Cost Savings........................................................................................ 139

LTE Network Vendor Strategies

7.1 Alcatel Lucent.................................... 141

Figure 7.1: Alcatel-Lucent LTE Solution..................................... 143

Figure 7.2: Alcatel-Lucent ng Connect Program........................................ 143

7.2 Ericsson................................................. 144

LTE Advanced Developments.................................... 145

7.3 Fujitsu................................................. 146

Figure 7.3: Fujitsu LTE
System.......................................... 147

7.4 Huawei......................................... 148

Figure 7.4: Huawei LTE Roadmap..................................... 149

Figure 7.5: Huawei e2e LTE
Solution................................... 150

Figure 7.6: Huawei DBS3900
Series............................................... 151

7.5 NEC.............................................. 151

Figure 7.7: NEC LTE Solution...................................... 152

7.6 Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN)................... 153

Table 7.1: NSN LTE Commercial Network Deals............................ 153

Figure 7.8: NSN - Telia Sweden LTE Network Highlights................. 154

Figure 7.9: Nokia Siemens Networks LTE Solution...................................... 155

7.7 ZTE........................................................ 156

Figure 7.10: ZTE Uni-RAN Solution...................................... 157

7.8 Samsung.............................................. 157

Figure 7.11: Samsung SmartMBS Solution........................ 158

7.9 Vendor Analysis................................... 159

Figure 7.12: Global LTE Network Vendor Positioning
Matrix.......................... 161

LTE Technologies Primer

8.1 HSPA (High Speed Packet Access).............................................................. 165

8.1.1 3GPP Release 5..................................................................................................... 165

8.1.2 3GPP Release 6..................................................................................................... 166

Figure 8.1: HSPA Evolution......................................................................................................................... 166

8.1.3 3GPP Release 7..................................................................................................... 167

Figure 8.2: HSDPA Performance Improvements..................................................................................... 167

8.1.4 3GPP Release 8 HSPA Evolved (HSPA+).............................................................. 167

8.1.5 HSPA Devices....................................................................................................... 168

8.2 Duplexing Techniques...................................................................................... 169

8.2.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing)....................... 169

Figure 8.3: Frequency Division Duplexing............................. 169

8.2.2 TDD (Time Division Duplexing)................................. 169

Figure 8.4: Time Division Duplexing............................. 170

Figure 8.5: TDD LTE Spectrum Bands........................... 170

Figure 8.6: FDD and TDD Comparison.................................. 170

8.3 LTE (Long Term Evolution)....................... 171

8.3.1 3GPP Release 8: LTE & SAE................... 171

Figure 8.7: LTE Overview............................... 171

Figure 8.8: LTE and SAE System Architecture.............................. 172

Figure 8.9: Comparison of LTE and UMTS System Architecture................ 172

Figure 8.10: LTE Release 8 Standardisation History............... 173

8.3.2 TD-LTE........................................... 174

8.4 3GPP Release 10: LTE Advanced........................ 175

Figure 8.11: LTE Advanced System Performance Requirements..................... 175

8.5 CDMA 1X EVDO & UMB................................. 176

Figure 8.12: CDMA2000 Roadmap................................................ 177

8.6 WiMAX.................................................. 177

8.6.1 OFDM........................... 178

8.6.2 Mobile WiMAX (802.16e - 2005).......................... 178

Figure 8.13: Difference between OFDM and OFDMA........................ 178

8.6.3 Mobile WiMAX (802.16m)......................... 179

Figure 8.14: Mobile WiMAX Timeline.................... 179

Figure 8.15: WiMAX 802.16e Compared To 802.16m...................... 180

8.7 Technology Comparison............................... 181

Table 8.1: Key Mobile Broadband Technology Parameter Comparisons........................................ 181

Companies Referenced

Companies Profiled

Alcatel-Lucent, America Movil, AT&T Mobility, China Mobile, Ericsson, Etisalat, France Telecom Orange, Fujitsu, Huawei, MTS, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, NTT DoCoMo, O2, Orange, Samsung, SingTel Mobile, Telecom Italia, TeliaSonera, Telstra, T-Mobile, Ucell, Verizon Wireless, VivaCell-MTS, Vodafone Germany, Yota, Zain, ZTE

Companies Mentioned

4DK, Aircell, Airtel, Al Madar, Antel, Apple, Asiaspace, Asus, Axiata, Belgacom Mobile,  Bell Wireless, Bharti Airtel,  BSNL, Buzznet, Celcom, Cell C, CenterNet, China Telecom, chumby, Clearwire, Commnet Wireless, CompaqConnect2Media, Dell, Deutsche Telekom, Dialog, dimedis, Emobile, EMT, Everything Everywhere, FISHLABS, GammaTech, Google, HP Compaq, HP, HTC, Hutchison 3, Infotel Broadband Services, KDDI, KT, LG, LightSquared, LMT, Maxis, MegaFon, MetroPCS, Microsoft, Mobitel, Mobyland, Motorola, MTNL, MTS, Allstream, NBN, Netcom, Netcomm, Netgear, Nintendo, Omnitel, Optus, Packet One Networks, Panasonic, Pantech, PCCW, Qatar, QNX Software Systems, QNX, Qualcomm, RIL, Rogers Wireless, Rostelecom, Sierra Wireless, SIGNEXX, SK Telecom, SoftBank, Sony, Sprint, Starent Networks, StarHub, STC, Swedish Post, Telcel, Tele2, Telecom Agency,Telecom New Zealond, Telefonica Movistar, Telefonica O2, Telefonica, Telenor, Telia Denmark, Telkomsel, Telstra, Telsus, Tikona, Toshiba, Total Immersion, TuneWiki, VimpelCom, Vodacom, Wind Mobile, Words & Number