3G Femtocells and Beyond

Overview

This report presents three different scenarios of how the femtocells market will develop over the next six years up until 2014; best case, baseline and worst case scenario.

Key femtocells forecasts include; the number of femtocells access points shipped both for stand-alone access points and integrated access points, 3G home femtocell subscribers and femtocell service revenues split by; free calling plan, basic monthly value, new and enhanced services and incremental revenue from existing femtocell services.

Each of the femtocell projections uses a twin track approach, based on forecasts of both residential broadband subscribers and forecast of 3G consumer subscribers, and the scenarios evaluate the market impact of various femtocell penetration rates. 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Technology & Market Drivers

1.1 Definition
Figure 1.1: Femtocell Network Connectivity
Figure 1.2: Femtocell Network at Home
Figure 1.3 Femtocell Services in the Home
1.2 Network Hardware Elements
1.2.1 Chipsets
1.2.2 Access Points
Figure 1.4: ip.access Oyster 3G Femtocell Access Point
Figure 1.5: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
Figure 1.6 Alcatel-Lucent/Sagem Femtocell Access Point
1.2.3 Gateways
Figure 1.7: Femtocell Converged Gateway GENBAND G9
1.3 Recent Developments
1.3.1 3GPP Release 8 Standard
1.3.2 Interference
1.3.2 Business Case
1.3.3 Further Standards
1.4 Market Drivers
1.4.1 Personal Connectivity:  \"Always On\"
Figure 1.8: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle
1.4.2 Poor In-Building Coverage
Figure 1.9: Voice vs. Data ARPU by Country (Japan, France, US, UK, South Korea, Brazil, China & Philippines) for 2008
1.4.3 Data Traffic Growth & New Services
i. Orange Reveals Digital Media Boom
ii. Cisco Data Traffic Forecast
Figure 1.10: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
iii. Growth of Mobile Commerce
Figure 1.11: Bank of America Mobile Banking Screens
Figure 1.12: mPoria Mobile Web Shopping Portal
iv. Mobile Web 2.0 - Future Applications and Services
v. Video iPod Ignites Portable Video Revolution
Figure 1.13: Mobile Data Drivers - The Role of Video
1.4.4 Data Traffic Offload - Cost Reduction
Figure 1.14: Mobile Broadband Traffic Volume vs. Revenue
1.4.5 Femtocell Challenges
1.4.6 Conclusion
Figure 1.15: Femtocell Market Drivers

2. Market Dynamics

2.1 Femto Forum Interview
2.1.1 Background/History
2.1.2 Forum\'s Aims
2.1.3 Technical Considerations - Interference
2.1.4 Femtocell Standardisation
2.1.5 Business Case
2.1.6 Forum Targets 2009
2.1.7 Market Issues and Opportunities
2.2 Femtocell Trials
Table 2.1: 3G Home Femtocell Trials Split by 8 Key Regions
2.3 Femtocell Vendor Ecosystem
2.3.1 The Big Picture
2.3.2 Ecosystem Relationships
Table 2.2: Femtocell Ecosystem

3. Market Forecast Approach

3.1 Methodology
Figure 3.1: Femtocell Market Forecast Methodology
3.2 Geographical Splits
3.3 Residential Broadband Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3.2: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband Subscriber Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.1: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband Subscriber Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Figure 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.2: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Figure 3.4: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
3.4 Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Forecast
Figure 3.5: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 3.4: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
3.5 Forecast Scenarios
Table 3.5: Femtocell Forecast Scenario Parameter Comparison: Baseline, Best & Worst Cases

4. Baseline Scenario

4.1 3G Femtocell Regional Forecast
4.1.1 North America
4.1.2 Western Europe
4.1.3 Far East & China and Rest of Asia Pacific
4.1.4 3G Femtocell Take-up and Access Points Forecasts
Figure 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
4.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
Figure 4.4: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
Figure 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.4: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.6: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 4.7: Netgear\'s View of Home Connectivity
Figure 4.8: Netgear - Multi Function Broadband WiFi Gateway
Figure 4.9: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.6: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Pricing
Figure 4.10: picoChip PC302 Single-chip 3GPP Femtocell
Figure 4.11: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.7: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.4 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
4.4.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 4.12: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.8: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.4.2 Standalone Access Point Market
Figure 4.13: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.9: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.4.3 Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 4.14: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.10: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.5 3G Femtocell Subscribers
Figure 4.15: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.11: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.16: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.12: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.6 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
4.6.1 Package Types and Pricing
4.6.2 Service Revenues by Package Type
Figure 4.17: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.18: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.13: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 4.19: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.14: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.15: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
4.6.2 Service Revenues by Region
Figure 4.20: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 4.16: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

5. Best Case Scenario

5.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
Figure 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
5.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
Figure 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
5.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
Figure 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
Figure 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
5.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
Figure 5.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 5.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
5.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
Figure 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6. Worst Case Scenario

6.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
Figure 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
6.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
Figure 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
Figure 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
6.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
Figure 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
Figure 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
Figure 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
6.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
Figure 6.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (%) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Figure 6.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
6.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
Figure 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
Table 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

7. Scenario Comparison and Analysis

7.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
Figure 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Figure 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014
Table 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014
7.2 3G Femtocell Access Points Scenario Comparison
Figure 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
7.3 3G Femtocell Subscribers Scenario Comparison
Figure 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
7.4 3G Femtocell Service Revenues Scenario Comparison
Figure 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Table 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
Figure 7.6: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
Figure 7.7: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
Table 7.6: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
Figure 7.8: O2 Joggler

Companies Referenced

Airvana, Alcatel-Lucent, Apple, Aricent, AT&T, Bank of America, Cisco, Continuous Computing,Femto Forum, GENBAND, ip.access, Kineto Wireless, Motorola, mPoria, NEC, Netgear, Nokia Siemens Networks, NTT DoCoMo, O2, Orange, picoChip, Softbank, Stoke, Ubiquisys.