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Digital Payments Strategies

Digital Payments Strategies

Online, Mobile & Contactless 2014-2019

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 24/06/2014
Category: Mobile Commerce
Coverage: Global ~ 8 key regions◊
 

Overview

•    Disruptive Factors Assessed
•    Key Trend Analysis
•    Benchmark Industry Forecasts

This first edition of Juniper’s Digital Payment Strategies report provides an essential guide to the key digital payments sectors, covering mobile, online and contactless payments.  It provides an in-depth assessment of key disruptive factors, ranging from the migration of content to digital (and thence to mobile) and the rise of ‘couch commerce’, to the emergence of new contactless payment technologies. Accompanied by the Excel Dataset.

Expert analysis is backed up by interviews with and commentaries from leading players across the digital payments industry, including DonRiver, eServGlobal, TransferTo, VeriFone and Visa Europe.

Concluding with a highly detailed set of forecasts and forecast assumptions, this report provides an invaluable aid for anyone seeking to gain a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the digital payments marketplace.

Market forecasts


Juniper delivers the benchmark forecasts on the digital payments industry. The report includes 23 tables and 25 charts, split by payment mechanism:

•    Payment Mechanism (Mobile, Online, Contactless Handset, Contactless Card)
•    Payment Sector (Digital Content, eTicketing, Physical Goods Purchase, Money Transfer and Contactless Payment)
•    8 Key Region

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1. Key Trends in Digital Payments

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Key Trends in Digital Retail
1.2.1 The Rise of eCommerce
Figure 1.1: Online GMV Sales ($m), Selected Leading Online Storefronts, 2013
1.2.2 eRetail is Migrating to a Mobile Environment
i. Mobiles for Browsing, Tablets for Buying
Table 1.1: US Tablets & Smartphones, Relative Share of Installed Base, Mobile Traffic and Online Purchases, Cyber-Monday 2013 (%)
1.2.3 Mobile Remote Transactions are Becoming Larger (and More Frequent)
Figure 1.2: Selected UK Retailer Sales via Mobile/Tablet, H1 2013 ($m)
1.2.4 Content Delivery is Becoming Digital
1.3 Key Trends in Digital Money Transfer
1.3.1 Mobile Money Deployments: From Ad Hoc to Group…
1.3.2 …But International Remittance Deployments are Stalling
1.3.3 Services are Becoming More Modular and Flexible
1.3.4 The Evolving Role of the MNO
1.4 Key Trends in Contactless Payment
1.4.1 From Magstripe to EMV
i. The US Conundrum
1.4.2 Rising Contactless Infastructure and Card Deployments
Figure 1.3: UK Contactless Market: Cards In Issue (m) vs POS Terminals (000), Q1 2012-Q3 2013
1.4.3 Transaction Limits Are Increasing
1.4.4 Mobile Contactless Ecosystem Disruption: Emergence of HCE
i. Implications for MNOs
ii. Implications for Financial Institutions
iii. Conclusion
1.4.5 NFC Disruption: Putative Launch of iWallet
Figure 1.4: Apple, Proposed Mobile Secure Payment Mechanism
i. Implications of Beacon-based Solutions
a. Timeline
b. Implications for Proximity Payment Adoption
c. Implications for Proximity Payment Stakeholders

2. Mobile/Online Digital & Physical Goods Transaction Forecasts

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Methodology
Figure 2.1: Methodology for Digital Payments Adoption and Transactions
2.3 Potential User Base
Figure 2.2 & Table 2.1: Total Number of Adults (Aged 15+) (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
2.4 Digital Goods Payment Market Forecasts
2.4.1 Total Number of Mobile/Online Payments (Content Only)
Figure 2.3 & Table 2.2: Total Number of Mobile/Online Digital Content Transactions (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
Figure 2.4: Mobile Transactions as Percentage of All Online Transactions, Selected Content Categories, 2014 & 2019
Figure 2.5: Mobile Content Transactions as Percentage of All Online Content Transactions, By 8 Key Regions, 2014 & 2019
2.4.2 Mobile/Online Ticketing Transactions
Figure 2.6 & Table 2.3: Total Mobile/Online Ticketing Transactions Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
2.4.3 Total Mobile/Online Transaction Volumes for Digital Goods
Figure 2.7 & Table 2.4: Total Number of Mobile/Online Transactions for Digital Goods Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
2.4.4 Digital Payment Revenues
Figure 2.8 & Table 2.5: Total Transaction Values for Digital Goods Purchases ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
Figure 2.9 & Table 2.6: Mobile Sales Value as Proportion of All Online Digital Goods Transactions (%) 2014 & 2019 Split by 8 Key Regions
2.5 Physical Goods Market
2.5.1 Mobile/Online Shopping User Base
Figure 2.10 & Table 2.7: Number of Individuals Making a Mobile/Online Physical Goods Purchase Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
2.5.2 Mobile/Online Transaction Volumes
Figure 2.11 & Table 2.8: Mobile/Online Physical Goods Transaction Volumes Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Region 2014-2019
Figure 2.12 & Table 2.9: Transactions Made Via Mobile Devices (Handsets, Tablets) as Proportion of All Online Physical Goods Purchases, Split by 8 Key Regions 2014 & 2019
2.5.3 Mobile/Online Transaction Values
Figure 2.13 & Table 2.10: Mobile/Online Physical Goods Transaction Values Per Annum ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019

3. Digital Money Transfer & Contactless Payment Forecasts

3.1 Digital P2P Money Transfer & Remittance Forecasts
3.1.1 Money Transfer Transaction Volumes
Figure 3.1 & Table 3.1: Total P2P Digital Money Transfer & Remittance Transactions Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
3.1.2 Money Transfer Transaction Values
Figure 3.2 & Table 3.2: Total P2P Digital Money Transfer & Remittance Transaction Value Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
3.2 Contactless Payment Forecasts
3.2.1 Contactless Transaction Volumes
i. Contactless Card Transaction Volumes
Figure 3.3 & Table 3.3: Total Number of Contactless Card Transactions Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
ii. Contactless Mobile Payments
Figure 3.4 & Table 3.4: Total Mobile Contactless Transactions Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
iii. All Contactless Transactions
Figure 3.5 & Table 3.5: Total Contactless Transactions Per Annum (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014‑2019
Figure 3.6 & Table 3.6: Mobile as a Percentage of All Contactless Transactions By Volume (%) Split By 8 Key Regions 2014 & 2019
3.2.2 Contactless Transaction Values
i. Contactless Card Transaction Values
Figure 3.7 & Table 3.7: Total Value of Contactless Card Transactions Per Annum ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014-2019
ii. Contactless Mobile Transaction Values
Figure 3.8 & Table 3.8: Total Mobile Contactless Payment Transaction Values ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2014-2019
iii. Total Contactless Transaction Values
Figure 3.9 & Table 3.9: Total Value of Contactless Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2014‑2019

4. Total Digital Payments Forecasts

4.1 Total Digital Payment Transaction Volumes
Figure 4.1 & Table 4.1: Total Number of Digital Transactions Per Annum (m) Split by Transaction Type 2014-2019
Table 4.2: Total Value of Contactless Transactions ($m) Split by Transaction Mechanism 2014-2019
4.2 Total Digital Payment Transaction Values
Figure 4.2 & Table 4.3: Total Digital Transaction Values Per Annum (mn) Split by Transaction Type 2014-2019
Figure 4.3 & Table 4.4: Total Digital Transaction Values Per Annum ($m) Split By Transaction Mechanism 2014-2019

Companies Referenced

Alibaba, Amazon, American Express, Apple, Argos, Bakinder, Banco Sabadell, Banglalink, Bharti, Boots, Capital One, Costcutter, Discover, Domino’s, DonRiver, EA, eBay, EMVCo, eServGlobal, Europay, Giant Eagle, GSMA, IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry), IRIS Ticketing, ISIS, JingDong, John Lewis, Lovefilm, M&S (Marks & Spencer), Macy’s, MasterCard, Moneygram, MTN, Netflix, NXP Semiconductors, Ocado, OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), Pret A Manger, Rakuten, Safaricom, Safeway, Staples, Starbucks, TfL (Transport for London), The Co-Operative, Tigo, TransferTo, UK Cards Association, UnionPay, Valve, VeriFone, Visa, Visa Europe, Vodacom, Vodafone, W H Smith, Western Union, World Bank, Xoom, Yihaodian, Zain, ZKR (Zolotoya Korona Remittances).

Extra Info

◊8 Key Regions include: North America; Latin America; Western Europe; Central & Eastern Europe; Far East & China; Indian Subcontinent; Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

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Key Questions

•    To what extent will online payments migrate to mobile and tablet devices over the next 5 years?
•    What are the primary drivers underpinning the growth in contactless payments?
•    Why are international money transfer deployments stalling in the mobile space?
•    What are the key factors that will offset growth in digital content revenues?
•    What impact will HCE and the iWallet have on NFC (Near Field Communications) deployments and adoption?
•    What are the major trends in digital content?

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Digital Payments Strategies Excel 2014-2019

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