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Mobile Payment Strategies

Mobile Payment Strategies

Remote, Contactless & Money Transfer 2014-2018

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 08/04/2014
Category: Mobile Commerce
No of Pages: 104
Coverage: Global ~ 8 key regions◊
 

Overview

•    Key Trend Analysis
•    Stakeholder Opportunities Assessed
•    Benchmark Industry Forecasts

This fifth edition of Juniper’s market leading report, and accompanying Excel dataset, provide an authoritative assessment of the key trends across the mobile payments space, from remote payments to contactless transactions at the POS (Point of Sale). It explains the implications of major developments, such as the emergence of HCE (Host Card Emulation)-based solutions, for stakeholders across the value chain, and considers how the industry is responding to challenges including showrooming and standardisation.

Expert analysis is backed up by interviews with and commentaries from leading players across the mobile payments industry, including Amdocs, Bango, Gemalto, Oberthur Technologies, Proxama, TransferTo, VeriFone and Visa Europe.

Concluding with a series of key player profiles, this report provides an invaluable aid for anyone seeking to gain a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the mobile payments marketplace.

Market forecasts
Juniper delivers the benchmark forecasts on the mobile contactless industry. The report includes 14 tables and 14 charts, providing annual transaction value forecasts for 8 key regions including:

•    Remote Mobile Payments for Digital Goods
•    Remote Mobile Payments for Physical Goods
•    Mobile Contactless Retail Payments
•    NFC (Near Field Communications) Ticketing
•    Mobile Money Transfers and Remittances

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1. Remote Mobile Payments - Trends, Drivers & Constraints

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Trends in the Remote Payments Space
1.2.1 Open Models for Mobile Payments are Emerging
Figure 1.1: App Downloads to Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets, 2012,  by Selected Storefront (55.9 billion downloads)
1.2.2 Mobile Remote Transactions are Becoming Larger (and More Frequent)
Figure 1.2: Selected UK Retailer Sales via Mobile/Tablet, H1 2013 ($m)
1.2.3 Mobiles for Browsing, Tablets for Buying
Table 1.1 US Tablets & Smartphones, Relative Share of Installed Base, Mobile Traffic and Online Purchases, Cyber-Monday 2013 (%)
1.2.4 Mobile Payments Replacing Cash in Developing Economies
1.2.5  Emergence of the Digital Glutton
1.3 Remote Payments Drivers
1.3.1 Device Drivers
Figure 1.3: Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Vendor, 2007 2013
Figure 1.4: Tablet Shipments (m), iPad/Other, 2009-2013
1.3.2 Brand/Retail Drivers
Figure 1.5 & Table 1.2: B2C/C2C eCommerce Sales ($bn), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2011 & 2012
1.3.3 MNO Drivers
Figure 1.6: Baseline Analysis of Selected National ARPUs, 2007-2012 (2007=100)
Figure 1.7: Monthly ARPU ($), Selected Emerging Markets, 2012
1.3.4 Secondary Drivers
1.4 Constraints on the Remote Payment Opportunity
1.4.1 Poor User Experience
1.4.2 Business Model & Payouts
1.4.3 Smartphone Fragmentation
1.4.4 Regulatory Hurdles
1.4.5 Transaction Costs

2. Contactless Mobile Payments - Trends, Drivers & Constraints

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Key Trends in the Contactless Payments Market
2.2.1 Ecosystem Disruption: Emergence of HCE
i. What is HCE?
ii. Implications of HCE for the NFC Ecosystem
a. Implications for MNOs
b. Implications for FIs
2.2.2 NFC Disruption: The Emergence of iBeacon & PayPal Beacon
i. What is iBeacon?
ii. PayPal Beacon
iii. Implications of Beacon-based Solutions
a. Timeline
b. Implications for Contactless Payment Adoption
2.3 Drivers for Contactless Payments
2.3.1 From Magstripe to EMV
2.3.2 Rising Contactless Infrastructure and Card Deployments
Figure 2.1: UK Contactless Market: Cards In Issue (mn) vs POS Terminals (000), Q1 2012-Q3 2013
2.3.3 The Rise in Mobile Banking
2.3.4 Strong Retailer Value Proposition
2.4 Constraints on the Contactless Payment Market
2.4.1 The NFC Consumer Journey
Figure 2.2: UK Smartphone Market: Receptiveness to NFC, December 2013
Figure 2.3: The NFC Consumer Journey
2.4.2 Value Proposition
2.4.3 Defining an Interim Solution Strategy

3. Payment Mechanisms & Opportunities

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Mobile Payment Mechanisms: Classification, Opportunities & Challenges
3.2.1 PSMS
i. Disadvantages of/Constraints on PSMS Payment
3.2.2 Credit Card Billing
Figure 3.1: Adult Debit Card Penetration in Selected Emerging/Developing Markets
Figure 3.2: Number of Adults (m) in Selected European/North American Markets without Debit Cards
3.2.3 Direct Carrier Billing
i. What is Direct Carrier Billing?
ii. Process
3.2.4 Contactless Payment
Figure 3.3: NFC Retail Payments Logical Architecture
i. NFC Controller
ii. Secure Element
iii. Application Environment
iv. User Interface
v. Wide Area Modem
vi. Contactless Payment (POS) Terminal
3.3 Identifying & Maximising the Operator Opportunity
Figure 3.4 & Table 3.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues 2012-2017
3.3.1 Leveraging the Billing Relationship
i. The Drivers of Direct Carrier Billing
Figure 3.5: Percentage of Users that Prefer Carrier Billing if the Option is Available
Figure 3.6: Billing Mechanism Conversion Rate Comparison, Low Value Purchases:  Credit Card vs Direct Carrier Billing
ii. The Challenges of Direct Carrier Billing
Table 3.2: Selected OTT Storefronts, Operator Billing Availability December 2013 (December 2012 in parenthesis)
Table 3.3: Selected Markets, Prepaid Users as % of Mobile User Base, 2012
3.3.2 Monetising Money Transfer
3.3.3 Monetising the Contactless Opportunity
i. Case Study: ISIS
Figure 3.7: ISIS Mobile Wallet Screenshot & Retailer Logo
ii. Case Study: Weve
iii. Prognosis

4. Mobile Payments Forecasts

4.1 Methodology
4.1.1 Approach and Assumptions
Figure 4.1: Market Forecast Methodology
4.2 Global Mobile Device Forecast
Figure 4.2 & Table 4.1: Mobile Device Installed Base (m) Split by Device Type, 2013-2018
4.3 Mobile Payment Market Forecasts
4.3.1 Remote Payments for Digital and Physical Goods
i. Digital Goods
Figure 4.3 & Table 4.2: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
ii. Physical Goods
a. Total Mobile Transaction Values
Figure 4.4 & Table 4.3: Total Remote Transactions from Mobile Devices ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. eRetail is Migrating to a Mobile Environment
Figure 4.5 & Table 4.4: mCommerce vs ‘Fixed’ eCommerce (%), Split by 8 Key Regions, 2018
c. The Rising Profile of the Tablet as an eCommerce/mCommerce Vehicle
Figure 4.6 & Table 4.5: Total mRetail Transaction Spend, ‘Fixed’ eRetail vs Mobile Devices ($m), 2013-2018
iii. Digital and Physical Goods Combined
a. Gross Merchandise Sales by Region
Figure 4.7 & Table 4.6: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Gross Merchandise Sales Market Segmentation
Figure 4.8 & Table 4.7: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Digital vs Physical Goods Comparison, 2013-2018
4.3.2 Contactless Mobile Payments
i. Retail Payments
Figure 4.9 & Table 4.8: Total Mobile Proximity Payment Transaction Values ($m), Split 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
ii. NFC Ticketing
Figure 4.10 & Table 4.9: Total Transaction Value of NFC Tickets pa Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013 2018
iii. Total Contactless Transaction Payments
Figure 4.11 & Table 4.10: Total Mobile Contactless Transaction Values ($m) pa Split by 8 Key Regions,  2013-2018
4.3.3 Mobile Money Transfers
Figure 4.12 & Table 4.11: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers ($m) pa Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
4.3.4 Total Mobile Payment Market
i. Regional Split
Figure 4.13 & Table 4.12: Total Mobile Payment Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 4.14 & Table 4.13: Total Mobile Payment Market (%) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
ii. Market Segment Split
Figure 4.15 & Table 4.14: Total Mobile Payment Market ($m) Split by Digital & Physical Goods, Contactless Payment & Money Transfers, 2013-2018
iii. Comparison with Previous Forecasts
Figure 4.16 & Table 4.15: Forecast Comparison: Mobile Payments, Global Transaction Values ($bn), 4th Edn (2012) vs 5th Edn (2014)

5. Vendor Profiles

5.1 Amdocs
Figure 5.1: Amdocs Mobile Payments: Functional Overview
5.2 Bango
5.3 DIMOCO
Figure 5.2: DIMOCO Platform Payment Processes
5.4 eServGlobal
Figure 5.3: eServGlobal Product Overview
5.5 Gemalto
5.6 Giesecke & Devrient
5.7 Monitise
5.8 Oberthur Technologies
5.9 PayPal (eBay)
5.10 Proxama
5.11 SAP
5.12 TransferTo

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Adyen, Amdocs, Bango, DIMOCO, Eagle Eye, eServGlobal, Gemalto, GetJar, Ingenico, Monitise, Neomobile, NXP, Oberthur Technologies, Proxama, SAP, SimplyTapp, TransferTo, VeriFone, Visa Europe,.

Profiled: Amdocs, Bango, DIMOCO, eServGlobal, Gemalto, G&D (Giesecke & Devrient), Monitise, Oberthur Technologies, PayPal, Proxama, SAP, TransferTo.

Case Studied: ISIS, La Caixa, Weve.

Mentioned: 2ergo, 3 UK, Airbnb, Airtel, Alfa Bank, Amazon, America Movil, American Express, Apple, Argos, ARM, AT&T, Badoo, Bakinder, Banco Sabadell, Barnes & Noble, Belgacom International Carrier Service, Best Buy, Bharti Airtel, BlackBerry, Boku, Boots, Bouygues Telecom, BP, Braintree, Capital One, Cellmania, Central Bank of Nigeria, Chase, Chunghwa Telecom, CIMB, Cognizant, Coles, Commercial Bank of Qatar, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CorFire, Costcutter, Cupola Plastic Cards, Danal, DG VERLAG, Discover, Disney, DNB, Domino’s, Donner & Reuschel, Dortmunder Volksbank, Dutch-Bangla Bank Ltd, E.Sun Bank, EA, eBay, EE (Everything Everywhere), Emma Bridgewater, EMVCo, Equinox Payments Vend, Ericsson, Erply, Europay, Facebook, Fat Face, First Data, first direct, First Eastern, Ford, Fundamo, Giant Eagle, GlobalPlatform, Google, Grand NFC Korea Alliance, GSMA, HBL, HDFC Bank, HP, HSBC, HTC, IBM, IMI, Impulse, Intex, Intuit, J C Penney, JETCO, Jimmy Choo, John Lewis, Korea Communications Commission, Korea Smart Card, Kyivstar, Laura Ashley, Leaf, Leapset, Lebara, LG, Lloyds, Longships PLC, M&S (Marks & Spencer), Macy’s, masabi, Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, MasterCard, McDonalds, MegaFon, MetroPCS, Micros, Microsoft, Mobi Forum, Mobile Money Network, mobilkom Austria, Moneris, MoreMagic, Motorola, Movida, Mozilla, MTN, MTS, MyClear, NatWest, NCR, Netlog, Net-M, Netsize (Gemalto), Nokia, Norges Bank, O2, Ocado, One Poll, OpenMarket, OpenTable, Opera Mobile, Orange, Orca, OSPT Alliance, Oxygen8, Paperchase, Payforit, PCCW, Posterscope, Pret A Manger, PT Astra Graphia Information Technology, Qpass, QTel, Rabobank, Rakuten, RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland), RIM, Rostelecom, Royal Doulton, Safaricom, Safeway, Samsung, SD Association, ShopKeep, Signbox, SIMalliance, Smart Card Alliance, SoftBank Mobile, Sony, Sparda-Bank Hamburg, Sprint, Standard Chartered, Starbucks, Syniverse, TAF mobile GmbH, Taishin, Taiwan Mobile, Target, TaskRabbit, Tate, Telefonica, Telenor, Telstra, Telus, Tesco, The Carphone Warehouse, The Co-Operative, The Home Depot, The Logic Group, TK Maxx, T-Mobile, Toys R Us, Tracfone, Travelex, Tripwire, Turkcell, TxtNation, Uber, Ulster Bank, UniCredit Bank, Universal Music, Velti, Vend, Venda, Veoo, Verizon, Vimpelcom, Visa, Vivo, VocaLink, Vodafone, W H Smith, WebBank, Western Union, Wickes, XL Axiata, YouGov, Zong.

Extra Info

◊8 Key Regions include: North America; Latin America; Western Europe; Central & Eastern Europe; Far East & China; Indian Subcontinent; Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

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Key Questions

•    How much will Mobile Retail payments be worth by 2018? And how much will it contribute to eRetail?
•    How can direct carrier billing implementations benefit storefronts, operators and consumers?
•    Why has international money transfer failed to gain traction in mobile?
•    How will the development of HCE-based SE (Secure Element) solutions impact on the medium term prospects for HCE? And which NFC stakeholders stand to benefit?
•    What effect will the deployment of iWallet have on the wider mobile contactless space?
•    What are the key retailer benefits from NFC/contactless payment?

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