Mobile Messaging Markets | IM, Social, SMS, MMS, Email, RCS/RCS-e 2014-2018 | Research | Statistics | Market research
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Mobile Messaging Markets

Mobile Messaging Markets

IM, Social, SMS, MMS, Email, RCS/RCS-e 2014-2018

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 19/02/2014
Category: Mobile Content & Applications
No of Pages: 140
Coverage: Global ~ 8 key regions
 

Overview

•    A2P SMS Opportunity Assessed
•    Traffic Volumes & Revenues Forecast
•    Key OTT Players Positioned & Profiled

Juniper’s 5th edition of its Mobile Messaging report offers readers a wealth of insights across the ecosystem of this fiercely competitive market. The report evaluates, in detail, the primary business models and strategies of both MNOs and OTTs, as well as identifying and explaining crucial drivers and constraints on a market-by-market basis. Also available is the accompanying IFxl (Interactive Forecast Excel).

Key Features of the Report

Profiles & Positioning of Key OTT Players

New for this edition of the Report is a chapter dedicated to analysing the competitive landscape for OTT Players. As this market continues to evolve, evidenced by both Facebook’s acquisition of WhatsApp and Rakuten’s acquisition of Viber in 2014, this section offers the reader valuable insights into the dynamics of the OTT market, and the opportunities pertaining to different players. Expert analysis is backed up by interviews with leading players across the mobile messaging ecosystem, including Deutsche Telekom, LINE Corp. and SAP Mobile.

Exhaustive Market Forecasts 
The extensive and detailed forecast suite covers six markets segmented in a number of ways:
•    SMS: by handset, traffic type, business model and 8 key regions
•    MMS: by handset, traffic type, business model and 8 key regions
•    IM: by device, business model and 8 key regions
•    Email: by device and 8 key regions.
•    RCS/RCS-e: by message format and 8 key regions
•    Social Messaging: by device and 8 key regions

5 year forecasts, comprising over 50 tables and over 2,700 unique data points, include total traffic for each market, as well as revenues for the SMS, MMS and IM markets. RCS/RCS-e forecasts also include capable-smartphones, service adoption and average traffic per handset.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1. Mobile Messaging: A Market in Fierce Competition

1.1 Introduction
1.2.1 Mobile Message Categories
1.2.2 Sender/Recipient Relationships
1.2.3 Business Models
1.3 Mobile Messaging Markets
Figure 1.1: Mobile Messaging Overload
1.3.1 Core Messaging Services
i. SMS
Figure 1.2 & Table 1.1: Global SMS Traffic per Annum (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2012
Figure 1.3: A2P SMS – TVA Community Credit Union
Figure 1.4: Methods Used by UK Adults at least Daily to Communicate with Friends and Family (%)
Figure 1.5: Percentage of American Adults who use their Handset to Send/Receive Text Messages (%) 2007-2013
ii. MMS
Figure 1.6: Starbucks’ 2013 MMS Campaign
Figure 1.7 & Table 1.2: Global MMS Traffic (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2012
1.3.2 OTT Messaging
i. Instant Messaging & NUVOs (Network Unaffiliated Virtual Operators)
Table 1.3: Selected Mobile IM Service Users Bases and Traffic Levels, 2011-2013
a. NUVOs
b. Regional Variations
Figure 1.8: Most Popular IM Apps in a Selection of Countries, December 2013
c. Acquisitions & Consolidation
ii. OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) Initiatives
iii. Operator Initiatives
1.3.3 RCS/RCS-e
i. Case Study: Joyn
1.3.4 Indirect OTT Messaging
i. Social Messaging
ii. Email
iii. Self-Destructive Messaging
a. Case Study: Snapchat

2. Delivering Value & Monetising Mobile Messaging

2.1 Mobile Messaging Value Chains
2.1.1 SMS & MMS Value Chain
i. P2P Value Chain
Figure 2.1: P2P SMS/MMS Value Chain
ii. A2P Value Chain
Figure 2.2: A2P SMS/MMS Value Chain
2.1.2 IM Value Chain
Figure 2.3: IM Value Chain
2.1.3 NUVO Value Chain
Figure 2.4: NUVO Value Chain
2.2 P2P Messaging: Operator Business Models
2.2.1 MNO Challenge: Flatlining Revenues, Declining ARPU
Figure 2.5 & Table 2.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU & Operator‑Billed Service Revenues 2013-2018
i. The MNO’s SMS Challenge
Figure 2.6: Hourly Deviation from Average SMS Traffic during iMessage Outage (%) 9th April 2013
2.2.2 MNO Threat: Costs Exceed Revenues
2.2.3 US & Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis
i. Prepaid Mix
Figure 2.7 & Table 2.2: US vs Western Europe: Prepaid Subscribers as a Proportion of Total Subscribers (%) Split by Selected Operators/Markets (Telefonica UK, Germany & Spain, Vodafone UK, Germany & Spain, AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless) 2008-2012
a. Solving the PrePaid Problem
ii. Messaging ARPU
Figure 2.8 & Table 2.3: Vodafone’s Monthly Messaging ARPU ($) Split by its European Subsidiaries 2008-2012
2.2.4 Countering the OTT Threat: The Dutch Casualty
Figure 2.9: The Average Number of SMS Sent per KPN Subscriber per Month, Q1 2010-Q3 2013
i. The Associated Opportunity
2.2.5 Countering the OTT Threat: RCS-e
Figure 2.10: The RCS-e Business Model
Figure 2.11: Safeguarding MNO Revenues – An RCS-e Scenario
2.3 A2P Messaging: Operator & Aggregator Business Models
2.3.1 Standard Rate A2P Messaging
2.3.2 Premium Rate A2P Messaging
Figure 2.12: Example of MO (left) and MT (right) Messaging
2.4 OTT Messaging: OTT Business Models
2.4.1 The Content Upsell
2.4.2 Advertising
Figure 2.12: Advertising on Tango
2.4.3 Paid for/Subscription
i. Case Study: China Mobile - Fetion
2.4.4 SDK Integration

3. The Future of Mobile Messaging: Hurdles & Drivers

3.1 Introduction
3.2 SMS
3.2.1 SMS Drivers
3.2.2 SMS Constraints
3.3 MMS
3.3.1 MMS Drivers
Table 3.1: Proportion of Smartphones with Cameras (%), Split by Quality of Megapixels 2011-2013
3.3.2 MMS Constraints
3.4 RCS/RCS-e
3.4.1 RCS/RCS-e Drivers
Figure 3.3: ‘The Power of “It’s Just there”’
3.4.2 RCS/RCS-e Constraints
3.5 OTT Messaging: IM, Social Messaging & Email
3.5.1 OTT Messaging Drivers
3.5.2 OTT Messaging Constraints
3.6 Conclusion

4. Mobile Messaging Forecast Overview

4.1 Mobile Device Installed Base
i. Smartphone Installed Base
Figure 4.1 & Table 4.1: Smartphone Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
i. Featurephone Installed Base
Figure 4.2 & Table 4.2: Featurephone Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
iii. Tablet Installed Base
Figure 4.3 & Table 4.3: Tablet Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
4.2 Mobile Messaging Markets: A Comparative Overview
i. Traffic
Figure 4.4 & Table 4.4: Mobile Messaging Traffic (bn) Split by Market (SMS, MMS, RCS/RCS-e Text, RCS/RCS-e Picture/Video, IM, Email and Social Messaging) 2013-2018
4.3 Messaging Revenues: A Comparative Analysis
Figure 4.5 & Table 4.5: Mobile Messaging Revenue ($m) Split by Market (SMS, MMS and IM) 2013‑2018

5. SMS Forecasts

5.1 SMS Forecast Methodology
Figure 5.1: SMS Forecast Methodology – Total Traffic
Figure 5.2: SMS Forecast Methodology – P2P Traffic
Figure 5.3: SMS Forecast Methodology – A2P Traffic & Revenues
5.2 SMS Forecasts
5.2.1 Total SMS Traffic
Figure 5.5 & Table 5.1: Total SMS Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 5.6 & Table 5.2: Total SMS Traffic (bn) Split by Traffic Type (A2P, P2P), 2013-2018
5.2.2 P2P SMS
i. P2P SMS Traffic
a. Traffic By Region
Figure 5.7 & Table 5.3: P2P SMS Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Traffic By Handset Type
Figure 5.8 & Table 5.4: P2P SMS Traffic (bn) Split by Handset Type (Smartphone, Featurephone) 2013-2018
c. Traffic By Business Model
Figure 5.9 & Table 5.5: Paid-For P2P SMS Traffic (bn) Split by Operator Business Model (Out-of-Bundle, Bundled) 2013-2018
ii. P2P SMS Revenues
a. Out-of-Bundle Revenues
Figure 5.10 & Table 5.6: P2P SMS Revenue ($m) from Out-of-Bundle Billing Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Bundled Revenues
Figure 5.11 & Table 5.7: P2P SMS Revenue ($m) from Bundled Billing Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013‑2018
c. Total Revenues
Figure 5.12 & Table 5.8: P2P SMS Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 5.13 & Table 5.9: P2P SMS Revenue ($m) Split by Operator Business Model (Out-of-Bundle, Bundled) 2013-2018
5.2.3 A2P SMS
i. A2P SMS Traffic
a. Total Traffic
Figure 5.14 & Table 5.10: A2P SMS Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Premium-Rate Traffic
Figure 5.15 & Table 5.11: Premium-Rate A2P SMS Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
c. Standard-Rate Traffic
Figure 5.16 & Table 5.12: Standard-Rate A2P SMS Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
ii. A2P SMS Revenues
a. Premium-Rate Revenues
Figure 5.17 & Table 5.13: Premium-Rate A2P SMS Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Standard-Rate Revenues
Figure 5.18 & Table 5.14: Standard-Rate A2P SMS Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
c. Total Revenues
Figure 5.19 & Table 5.15: A2P SMS Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 5.20 & Table 5.16: A2P SMS Revenues ($m) Split by Business Model (Premium-Rate, Standard‑Rate) 2013-2018
5.2.4 Total SMS Revenues
Figure 5.21 & Table 5.17: SMS Revenues ($bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 5.22 & Table 5.18: SMS Revenues ($bn) Split by Traffic Type (A2P, P2P) 2013-2018

6. MMS Forecasts

6.1 MMS Forecast Methodology
Figure 6.1: MMS Forecast Methodology – Total Traffic
Figure 6.2: MMS Forecast Methodology – P2P Traffic
Figure 6.3: MMS Forecast Methodology – P2P Revenues
Figure 6.4: MMS Forecast Methodology – A2P Traffic & Revenues
6.2 MMS Forecasts
6.2.1 Total MMS Traffic
Figure 6.5 & Table 6.1: Total MMS Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 6.6 & Table 6.2: Total MMS Traffic (bn) Split by Traffic Type (A2P, P2P) 2013-2018
6.2.2 P2P MMS
i. P2P MMS Traffic
a. Traffic By Region
Figure 6.7 & Table 6.3: P2P MMS Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Traffic By Handset Type
Figure 6.8 & Table 6.4: P2P MMS Traffic (bn) Split by Handset Type (Featurephone, Smartphone) 2013-2018
ii. P2P MMS Revenues
Figure 6.9 & Table 6.5: P2P MMS Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
6.2.3 A2P MMS
i. A2P MMS Traffic
a. Total Traffic
Figure 6.10 & Table 6.6: A2P MMS Traffic (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Premium-Rate Traffic
Figure 6.11 & Table 6.7: Premium-Rate A2P MMS Traffic (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
c. Standard-Rate Traffic
Figure 6.12 & Table 6.8: Standard-Rate A2P MMS Traffic (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
ii. A2P MMS Revenues
a. Premium-Rate Revenues
Figure 6.13 & Table 6.9: Premium-Rate A2P MMS Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Standard-Rate Revenues
Figure 6.14 & Table 6.10: Standard-Rate A2P MMS Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
c. Total Revenues
Figure 6.15 & Table 6.11: A2P MMS Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 6.16 & Table 6.12: A2P MMS Revenues ($m) Split by Business Model (Premium-Rate, Standard‑Rate) 2013-2018
6.2.4 Total MMS Revenues
Figure 6.17 & Table 6.13: MMS Revenues ($bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 6.18 & Table 6.14: MMS Revenues ($bn) Split by Traffic Type (A2P, P2P) 2013-2018

7. IM, Email, Social Messaging & RCS/RCS-e Forecasts

7.1 IM Forecasts
7.1.1 Forecast Methodology
Figure 7.1: IM Messaging Forecast Methodology - Traffic
Figure 7.2: IM Messaging Forecast Methodology – Subscription
Figure 7.3: IM Messaging Forecast Methodology – Ad-Funded
Figure 7.4: IM Messaging Forecast Methodology – In-App Consumer Spend
7.1.2 IM Forecasts
i. IM Traffic
Figure 7.4 & Table 7.1: Total IM Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
ii. IM Revenue
a. Subscription
Figure 7.5 & Table 7.2: Total IM Subscription Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
b. Ad-Funded
Figure 7.6 & Table 7.3: Total IM Ad Spend ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
c. In-App Purchases
Figure 7.7 & Table 7.4: Total Spend on In-App IM Content ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
d. Total Revenue
Figure 7.7 & Table 7.4: Total IM Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 7.8 & Table 7.5: Total IM Revenue ($m) Split by Business Model (Ad Spend, Subscription, In‑App Purchases) 2013-2018
7.2 Email Forecasts
7.2.1 Forecast Methodology
Figure 7.9: Email Forecast Methodology
7.2.2 Email Forecasts
Figure 7.10 & Table 7.6: Total Email Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 7.11 & Table 7.7: Total Email Traffic (bn) Split by Device (Featurephone, Smartphone, Tablet) 2013-2018
7.3 Social Messaging Forecasts
7.3.1 Forecast Methodology
Figure 7.12: Social Messaging Forecast Methodology
7.3.2 Social Messaging Forecasts
Figure 7.13 & Table 7.8: Total Social Messaging Traffic (bn) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 7.14 & Table 7.9: Total Social Messaging Traffic (bn) Split by Device (Featurephone, Smartphone, Tablet) 2013-2018
7.4 RCS/RCS-e Forecasts
7.4.1 Forecast Methodology
Figure 7.15: RCS/RCS-e Forecast Methodology
7.4.2 RCS/RCS-e Forecasts
i. RCS/RCS-e Capable Smartphones
Figure 7.16 & Table 7.10: RCS/RCS-e Capable Smartphone Installed Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
ii. RCS/RCS-e Adoption
Figure 7.17 & Table 7.11: Number of RCS/RCS-e Chat Smartphone Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
iii. RCS/RCS-e Traffic
Figure 7.18 & Table 7.12: Total RCS/RCS-e Text Message Traffic (m) 8 Key Regions, 2013-2018
Figure 7.19 & Table 7.13: Total RCS/RCS-e Picture/Video Message Traffic (m) 8 Key Regions, 2013‑2018

8. The Competitive Landscape

8.1 OTT Messaging Landscape
8.2 OTT Messaging Provider Analysis
8.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria
Table 8.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors
8.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation
8.2.3 Mobile Messaging Vendor Matrix Positioning - 2014
Figure 8.1: Global Mobile Messaging Vendor Positioning Matrix 2014
i. Summary
ii. On Track Vendors
iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
iv. Vendors with Further Potential
8.3 OTT Messaging Provider Profiles
8.3.1 BlackBerry
Figure 8.1 & Table 8.1: BlackBerry Total Revenue ($m) for FYE March, 2008-2013
8.3.2 Facebook
Figure 8.2 & Table 8.2: Facebook Total Revenue ($m) for Financial Year January-January, 2011-2013
Figure 8.3 Facebook Chat Heads
8.3.3 Kakao
8.3.4 LINE Corp
8.3.5 Nimbuzz
8.3.6 Tencent
Figure 8.2 & Table 8.2: Tencent Total Revenue ($m) for Financial Year January-January, Split by Mobile & Non-Mobile 2008-2012
8.3.7 Viber Media
8.3.8 WhatsApp

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: Acision, BlackBerry, Comverse, Deutsche Telekom, LINE Corporation, Netsize, Nimbuzz, SAP Mobile Services, Syniverse, Telefonica.

Profiled: BlackBerry, Facebook, Kakao, LINE Corporation, Nimbuzz, Tencent, Viber Media, WhatsApp.

Case Studied: GSMA, SnapChat, China Mobile (Fetion).

Mentioned: Activision Blizzard, Aldi, Amobee, AOL, Apple, AT&T, Avenue, Baidu, Bango, Booking.com, BT, China Mobile, China Unicom, Claro Americas, Deutsche Telekom, eBay, eBuddy, Flickr, Globe Telcom, Google, Hutch, InfoTrends, Instagram, Jabber, J-Phone, Kik Messenger, Kobo, KPN, KT, LG, MetroPCS, Microsoft, Mirabilis, Mobilink, MoPub, Nokia, O2, OpenCloud, Orange, Pew Research Center, PhonePayPlus, Pinger, Pinterest, Qihoo, Rakuten, Reddit, Reuters, Rovio, Samsung, Sina Weibo, SK Telecom, Skype, Sohu.com, Spotify, Sprint, Stanford University, Starbucks, Tango, Tata Docomo, Telcel, Telecom Italia, Telenor, Tesco, textPlus, Three, T-Mobile, TVA Community Credit Union, Twitter, Tyntec, Verizon, Viettel Telecom, VimpelCom, Vodafone, WeChat, Wickr, Yahoo, YouTube, Zalo.

Extra Info

‡8 Key Regions include: North America; Latin America; Western Europe; Central & Eastern Europe; Far East & China; Indian Subcontinent; Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East.

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Key Questions

•    How can SMS/MMS adapt to counter the threat of OTT messaging services?
•    What are the benefits of the RCS standard? Which MNOs are deploying RCS?
•    What hurdles will MNOs wishing to deploy RCS need to overcome?
•    Are OTT messaging service providers developing sustainable business models?
•    What proportion of SMS/MMS traffic/revenue will come from A2P/P2P over the next 5 years?
•    Is social messaging becoming a threat to SMS/MMS?
•    How can MNOs harness the growth seen in A2P messaging?
•    What is the competitive situation like for OTT Messaging Providers at present?

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Mobile Messaging Markets IFxl 2014-2018

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