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Mobile Roaming

Mobile Roaming

Regulations, Opportunities & In-flight Strategies 2014-2018

Publisher: Juniper Research
Date Published: 14/01/2014
Category: Networks & Technologies
No of Pages: 124
Coverage: Global ~ 8 key regions
 

Overview

•    Regulations & Pricing Analysis
•    New In-flight Roaming Forecasts
•    New Scenario Based EU Revenue Forecasts
•    Silent Roaming Opportunity: Data & Voice

This second edition of Juniper’s market leading report on mobile roaming provides a comprehensive suite of five year calculated projections, together with qualified findings regarding the anticipated roaming market opportunity to 2018. This edition includes an extensive analysis of the global regulatory landscape along, with an in-depth focus on the opportunities for the different stakeholders within the ecosystem. This latest industry intelligence report also provides a unique analysis on the in-flight roaming market.

With over 40 pages of forecasts in the report, including 27 tables, this most up-to-date report is supplemented by the Mobile Roaming IFxl (Interactive Forecast Excel) with an additional 33 forecast tables and 3,000 data points.

What This Report Covers

New & Updated Forecast Suite

With almost 1,500 data points and three exclusive chapters of forecasts in the report, this updated study provides an extensive breakdown for the following data points:
•    Mobile Roamers (m): Enterprise, Consumer, Postpaid & Prepaid
•    Roaming Revenue ($m): Voice, SMS & Data
•    Silent Roamers (m) and Revenue Opportunity ($m): Voice and Data
•    In-flight Roamers (m) and Revenue ($m).

The report also includes a unique scenario based analysis of the impact that planned EU regulations will have on roaming revenues for operators.

Regulatory Overview & Pricing Analysis

The report devotes a chapter to the regulatory environment examining global regulatory initiatives and reforms. The report aims to provide readers with insights into roaming-based ‘bill shock’ and the trend towards regulation based solutions, with an updated analysis of the EU Roaming regulations setting out recent developments. Readers will also gain invaluable insights into the different roaming business and pricing models.

In-flight Roaming Market Analysis

This new chapter analyses and forecasts the in-flight roaming market in terms of number of unique in-flight roamers (travelling at least once a year) and service revenue. The report also feature interviews with two major in-flight roaming service providers: OnAir and AeroMobile.

Silent Roamer Opportunity

Silent roamers, those not actively using any roaming services, present a huge challenge to mobile operators both in terms of customer satisfaction as well as lost revenue. The report studies and forecast the possiblenrevenue generated by silent roamers that could be attributed to the operators’ lost revenue every year; forecast as lost revenue in terms of voice and data.

Mobile Roaming IFxl 2014-2018

This IFxl, with nearly 60 Tables; 12 What-if-analyses; and over 4,500 Data Points, provides additional market data for mobile roamers and roaming revenue for four key countries: Canada, Germany, UK and US. In addition to the above forecasts, active roamers; adoption levels; data usage and traffic; average spend per user models; and average usage per user model are also provided. Forecasts are split by region, country and segment.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
1. Mobile Roaming Market Dynamics

1.1 Introduction & Report Scope
1.2 Terminology
1.2.1 Mobile Roaming
Figure 1.1: International Mobile Roaming Snapshot
1.2.2 Wholesale and Retail Roaming
Figure 1.2: Wholesale and Retail Roaming Market Snapshot
1.3 Mobile Roaming Market Drivers
1.3.1 The Changing Face of Roaming?
1.3.2 Market Drivers
Figure 1.3 & Table 1.1: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator‑Billed Service Revenues 2012‑2017
Figure 1.4: Global Smartphone Installed Base (m) pa, Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
Figure 1.5: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches
Figure 1.6: Total Data Traffic through the Cellular Network pa (PB)  Split by 8 Key Regions 2012‑2017
Figure 1.7 & Table 1.2: Base Line Analysis of Mobile Data and Data Revenue Growth, 2012‑2017
1.4 Examining the Potential of LTE in Roaming
1.4.1 4G LTE Roaming Advantages
i. New Service and Revenue Opportunities
ii. Right Economics to Encourage Service Usage at a Value…
1.4.2 4G LTE Roaming Challenges
i. Device Availability
ii. Growing Diversity and Device Challenge
Figure 1.8: iPad Wi-Fi & 4G Model in Australia
1.5 In-Flight Roaming: Market Trends & Case Studies
1.5.1 What is In-flight Roaming?
Figure 1.9: In-flight Roaming Service Overview
i. MCA System for 3G and 4G In-flight Connectivity
1.5.2 Case Study: Emirates Airline
i. Background
ii. In-flight Services & Partnerships: OnAir and AeroMobile
1.6 4G LTE – Wi-Fi Roaming: Market Trends & Case Study
1.6.1 Introduction & Market Trends
1.6.2 Case Study: Wi‑Fi Alliance
a. Strategic Directives

2. Mobile Roaming Regulatory Landscape

2. Mobile Roaming Regulatory Landscape
2.1 Addressing Roaming-based Bill Shock
2.1.1 The Need for Regulation
2.2 Mobile Roaming Developments
Table 2.1: EU Retail and Wholesale Roaming Price Caps (€) 2012-2014
2.3 Roaming Regulations
2.3.1 European Union
i. Background: Roaming in the EU
ii. EU Roaming Regulatory Developments
Table 2.2: Eurotariff Rates for Voice, SMS and Data in the EU, 2009 - 2012
iii. ‘Roam Like at Home’ Package
2.3.2 South East Asia
i. ASEAN Bilateral Roaming Agreement
Figure 2.1:  Bilateral Mobile Roaming Pricing – Singapore and Malaysia
2.4 Roaming Partnerships & Alliances
2.4.1 Intra-network Roaming In EMEA: Zain ‘One Network’
2.4.2 Roaming Partnership Model: FreeMove
2.4.3 Roaming Alliance Group: Conexus Mobile

3. Business Model & Pricing Analysis

3.1 Mobile Roaming Stakeholders
3.1.1 Managed Mobile Roaming Services
Table 3.1: Selected Global Mobile Operator IMR Tariffs($), Standard and Package Based Differences – November 2013
3.1.2 Unmanaged Mobile Roaming Services
3.2 Mobile Roaming Opportunities
3.2.1 The Hubbing Strategy
Figure 3.1: Roaming Hub vs Bilateral Model
3.2.2 The MVNO Opportunity
Figure 3.2: Tru MVNO Global Coverage Map
3.2.3 M2M Roaming Opportunity
i. Case Study: Telematics Roaming Opportunity
Figure 3.3 & Table 3.2: Number of Consumer and Commercial Vehicles with Telematics installed (m) Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe 2013-2018
ii. Recent Developments
3.3 The Roaming Market Challenge
3.3.1 Seamless Wi-Fi Roaming – Threat or Opportunity?
Figure 3.4: Wi-Fi Roaming Cost Model
3.3.2 The VoIP and OTT Threat
Figure 3.5: Diagrammatical Representation of VoIP
i. The Net Neutrality Debate
3.3.3 Fraud
Figure 3.6: A Cross-Section of Industry Fraud Terms
i. NRTRDE (Near-Real Time Roaming Data Exchange)
3.4 Roaming Business Models
Figure 3.7: Mobile Roaming Business Model
3.4.1 Bilateral Roaming Model
3.4.2 Centralised and Operator Alliances
Figure 3.8: Vodafone Roaming Gateway
3.4.3 Mobile Roaming Hubs
3.4.4 Mobile – Wi-Fi Roaming
3.5 Roaming Pricing Models
3.5.1 Analysis of Global Pricing Models
Figure 3.9: Roaming Services Payment & Charges Overview
a. Example: Telstra Australia Postpaid & Prepaid Data Packages
3.5.2 Euro Pricing Model – Voice, SMS and Data
Figure 3.10: EU Average Voice Call Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q2 2008–Q1 2013
Table 3.3: EU Average Voice Call Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q1 2011-Q1 2013
Figure 3.11: EU Average SMS Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q2 2008–Q1 2013
Table 3.4: EU Average SMS Prices (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale Q1 2011–Q1 2013
Figure 3.12: EU Average Prices per MB of Roaming Data (€) Split Retail & Wholesale  Q2 2008–Q1 2013
Table 3.5: EU Average Prices per MB of Roaming Data (€) Split by Retail & Wholesale  Q1 2011‑Q1 2013
Table 3.6: Data Roaming Cost Savings Example by the European Commission

4. Mobile Roaming Market Forecasts

4.1 Methodology
4.1.1 Approach and Assumptions
Figure 4.1: Mobile Roaming Market Forecast Methodology
4.2 Mobile Roamers: Market Forecasts
Figure 4.2 & Table 4.1: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
Figure 4.3 & Table 4.2: Mobile Roamers as a Percentage of Global Mobile Subscribers (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
Figure 4.4 & Table 4.3: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by Enterprise & Consumer Segments 2013‑2018
Figure 4.5 & Table 4.4: Global Mobile Roamers (m), Split by Prepaid & Postpaid Segments 2013-2018
4.2.1 Enterprise Mobile Roaming Subscribers
Figure 4.6 & Table 4.5: Global Enterprise Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
4.2.2 Consumer Mobile Roaming Subscribers
Figure 4.7 & Table 4.6: Global Consumer Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
4.2.3 Prepaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers
Figure 4.8 & Table 4.7: Global Prepaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
4.2.4 Postpaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers
Figure 4.9 & Table 4.8: Global Postpaid Mobile Roaming Subscribers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
4.2.5 Mobile Data Roaming Subscribers
Figure 4.10 & Table 4.9: Global Active Mobile Data Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
Figure 4.11 & Table 4.10: Mobile Data Roamers as a Percentage of Roaming Subscribers (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
4.3 Mobile Roaming Market Revenue
4.3.1 Total Mobile Roaming Revenue
Figure 4.12 & Table 4.11: Global Mobile Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
Figure 4.13 & Table 4.12: Global Mobile Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by Voice, SMS and Data 2013-2018
4.3.2 Mobile Voice Roaming Revenue
Table 4.13: Average Voice Roaming Spend per Active User per Annum ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
Figure 4.14 & Table 4.14: Global Mobile Voice Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
4.3.3 Mobile SMS Roaming Revenue
Figure 4.15 & Table 4.15: Global Mobile SMS Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013‑2018
4.3.4 Mobile Data Roaming Revenue
Figure 4.16 & Table 4.16: Global Mobile Data Roaming Revenue ($m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013‑2018
4.4 European Regulatory Impact: Market Forecast Scenario
4.4.1 Background
4.4.2 Impact on European Market: Roaming Revenue Forecasts
i. Voice Roaming Revenue Scenario Forecasts
Figure 4.17 & Table 4.17: Voice Roaming Revenue Forecast Scenario Comparison ($m) Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe 2013-2018
ii. SMS Roaming Revenue Scenario Forecasts
Figure 4.18 & Table 4.18: SMS Roaming Revenue Forecast Scenario Comparison ($m) Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe 2013-2018
iii. Data Roaming Revenue Scenario Forecasts
Figure 4.19 & Table 4.19: Data Roaming Revenue Forecast Scenario Comparison ($m), Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe 2013-2018
iv. Roaming Revenue Scenario Forecasts: Voice, SMS & Data
Figure 4.20 & Table 4.20: Roaming Revenue Forecast Scenario Comparison ($m) Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe 2013-2018

5. The Silent Roamer Opportunity & Forecasts

5.1 Silent Roamers
5.2 Methodology & Assumptions
5.2.1 Approach and Assumptions
Figure 5.1: Silent Roaming Forecast Methodology
5.3 Mobile Roamers Not Using Voice
Figure 5.2 & Table 5.1: Number of Silent Voice Mobile Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
5.4 Voice Roaming Revenue Opportunity
Figure 5.3 & Table 5.2: Total Voice Roaming Revenue Opportunity from Silent Roamers ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
5.5 Mobile Roamers Not Using Data
Figure 5.4 & Table 5.3: Number of Silent Data Roamers (m), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
5.6 Data Roaming Revenue Opportunity
Figure 5.5 & Table 5.4: Total Data Roaming Revenue Opportunity from Silent Roamers ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018

6. In-flight Roaming Market Forecasts

6.1 Methodology & Assumptions
Figure 6.1: In-flight Roaming Market Forecast Methodology
6.2 Market Forecast
6.2.1 Number of In-flight Roamers
Figure 6.2 & Table 6.1: Number of Active In-flight Roamers Using Voice, SMS & Data Services (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
6.2.2 In-flight Roaming Market Revenue
Figure 6.3 & Table 6.2: In-flight Roaming Average Spend per User per Annum ($), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013-2018
Figure 6.4 & Table 6.3: In-flight Roaming Service Revenue per Annum ($), Split by 8 Key Regions 2013‑2018

7. Competitive Landscape & Vendor Matrix

7.1 Players In The Ecosystem
Figure 7.1: Members in the Roaming Ecosystem
7.2 Operators & Service Providers
7.2.1 Orange
a. Roaming Global eXchange
7.2.2 Uros Goodspeed
Figure 7.2: Uros Goodspeed Roaming Packages
7.3 Roaming Alliances
7.3.1 Bridge Alliance
Figure 7.3: Bridge Alliance Footprint
7.3.2 FreeMove Alliance
7.4 Roaming Service Providers & Vendors
7.4.1 Starhome MACH
Figure 7.4: MACH Portfolio
7.4.2 Syniverse
7.4.3 Roamware
7.5 Testing, Billing, Clearing & Settlement Services
7.5.1 Keynote SIGOS
Figure 7.5: GlobalRoamer Testing Platform Snapshot
7.6 Policy Management, Fraud & RA
7.6.1 Volubill
Figure 7.6: Volubill Bill Shock Management Snapshot
7.6.2 Revector
7.7 Other Roaming Service Providers
7.7.1 AeroMobile
Figure 7.7: AeroMobile Satellite Communications Network
7.7.2 OnAir
Figure 7.8: Mobile OnAir Service Access Process
7.8 Vendor Matrix & Analysis
7.8.1 Introduction
7.8.2 Vendor Assessment Methodology
Table 7.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Criteria
7.8.3 Limitations and Interpretation
7.8.4 New Positioning Matrix Results
Figure 7.9: Mobile Roaming Vendor Positioning Matrix
7.8.5 Vendor Groupings
i. Summary
ii. On Track Vendors
iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations
iv. Vendors with Further Potential
7.8.6 Conclusion

Companies Referenced

Interviewed: AeroMobile, Bridge Alliance, FreeMove Alliance, OnAir, Orange, Starhome MACH, Syniverse, Uros Goodspeed, Wi Fi Alliance.

Profiled:  AeroMobile, Bridge Alliance, FreeMove Alliance, Keynote SIGOS, OnAir, Orange, Revector, Roamware, Starhome MACH, Syniverse, Uros Goodspeed, Volubill.

Case Studied: Emirates Airline, Wi-Fi Alliance.

Mentioned: ADECEF, Aer Lingus, Air France, Airbus, Airtel, AIS, Apple, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), AT&T, Axiata, Bell Mobility, BEREC, Bharti Airtel, Boeing, Bosch, Bridge Alliance, British Airways, BSNL, BT, Cable & Wireless, Cathay Pacific, CDMA Development Group, Cell-C, China Mobile, China Unicom, Coca Cola, Comcast, Comium, Communications Fraud Control Association, Conexus Mobile Alliance, Cosmote, CSL, CTIA, CTM, Deutsche Telekom, Devicescape, Digicel, Dragon Air, eBuddy, Egyptair, eircom, Etihaad, Etisalat, Facebook, FarEasTone, Financial Times, Garuda, Globe Telecom, GLOBUL, GMA (Global M2M Association), GoAir, GSA, GSMA, Hong Kong Airlines, Hutchison Telcom, iFixit, iMessage, Indosat, ITU, Jasper Wireless, KLM, KT, Lebara Mobile, Lion Air, Lufthansa, Macquarie University, Maxis, MegaFon, Mobifone, Mobinil, Moov, MTN, MTNL, MTS, Network Norway, Nimbuzz, NTT DOCOMO, Numerex, O2, Oman Air, Optus, Panasonic, Qantas, Qualcomm, Reliance, Revector, Roshan, Rostelecom, Safaricom, SAS, Saudia, Sierra Wireless, Singapore Airlines, SingTel, SITA, SK Telecom, Skype, Skyscanner, Smart, SoftBank Mobile, StarHub, Sudatel, Taiwan Mobile, Tele2, Telecom Italia, Telefonica, TeliaSonera, Telkomcel, Telkomsel, Telstra, Telus, Tenzing, Thai Airways, Three, Tigo, T-Mobile, TNS, Transaero, Truphone, Trumove, Turkcell, Turkish Airlines, Twitter, United Nations World Tourism Organisation, Verizon, Viber, Vimpelcom, Vinaphone, Virgin Atlantic, Vodafone, Whatsapp, Wireless Broadband Alliance, YouTube, Zain.

Extra Info

‡8 Key Regions include: North America; Latin America; Western Europe; Central & Eastern Europe; Far East & China; Indian Subcontinent; Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & the Middle East.

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Key Questions

•    What is the importance of mobile roaming within the MNO’s business strategy?
•    What impact will LTE have on roaming usage and what are the challenges involved?
•    What is the potential growth of the roaming market in terms of mobile roamers and revenue?
•    What are the potential revenues to be amassed for roaming services from silent voice and data roamers?
•    How will the EU regulations impact mobile roaming revenue for operators in Europe?
•    What are the opportunities for MVNOs and M2M, WiFi, VoIP & OTT providers?
•    What are the opportunities from In-Flight Roaming for service providers?
•    How will In-Flight roaming adoption change over the next five years?

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Mobile Roaming IFxl 2014-2018

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