Verizon Wireless is leading the charge in what may now prove to be a deciding battle in establishing which standard will become the technology of choice for delivering 4G mobile communications services. In announcing that it will launch a commercial service based on LTE technology it has effectively bloodied the nose of the US’ sole 4G operator, Clearwire, which is using the rival WiMAX technology.
Clearwire asserts that its network is ‘here and now’ and is technically superior to anything Verizon will be able to offer in the near term. The company is now working on new rollout plans, details of which will be announced soon.
Certainly, no-one really knows how Verizon’s LTE network will perform in the field and under commercial traffic loads, despite Verizon’s claim that it will be able to offer users speeds of 50-60Mbit/s, versus Clearwire’s current 4Mbit/s offering.
Nevertheless, with the backing of partner Vodafone, Verizon Wireless is more likely to deliver on its promises of having extensive network coverage by 2011 than Clearwire, which is struggling to expand beyond its existing two-city footprint.
And if Verizon Wireless can succeed in making a commercial success of LTE in the short term, then other operators are sure to follow. Other than NTT DoCoMo and TeliaSonera, few major operators have yet to commit to LTE, preferring instead to follow the lifespan of 3G/3.5G to the end via HSPA upgrades. But they might now commit sooner rather than later in order to shorten any market lead Vodafone might enjoy.
Update 16.20 GMT: Canadian operator Rogers Wireless is also gearing up to deploy LTE. Like Verizon Wireless, it expects to deliver speeds of at least 50Mbit/s, based on tests carried out to date. This information was revealed during the course of announcing the company’s Q408 results, via an audio webcast.
Does this mean the early demise of WiMAX? I think not, because the technology is already being rolled out around the world, particularly in emerging markets where demand for broadband services is strong but where traditional networks have neither the reach or capability. WiMAX also has a strong user base already: the WiMAX Forum claims coverage of 430 million people at the end of 2008 and 800 million is expected this year.
But I do believe that LTE will flourish in developed markets at the expense of WiMAX, which will remain the province of dedicated broadband service providers. In emerging markets – such as Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, European markets such as Russia, and Asian nations such as India - it will all come down to cost. LTE may be relatively cheap to roll out where it can sit on top of existing 3G infrastructure, but in those countries where networks will have to be built out from scratch and where geographic features and low population density rates highlight the shortcomings of traditional cellular networks, WiMAX may prove to be the more economical solution.
Tags: 3.5G, 3G, 4G, Africa, Asia, BRIC, Clearwire, developed markets, emerging markets, Europe, high speed packet access, HSPA, India, juniper research, Latin America, long term evolution, LTE, Middle East, mobile network, mobile network operator, NTT DoCoMo, operator, Russia, Sprint, TeliaSonera, Verizon Communications, Verizon Wireless, Vodafone, wimax, WiMAX Forum, wireless broadband
[...] we’ve reported earlier, Verizon’s new LTE network is expected to be rolled out very quickly, with decent coverage of [...]